• A more conservative approach in the first quarter: The previous eight signal-callers to make the Super Bowl at 25 or younger within their first three seasons committed just one turnover-worthy play in their first 15 Big Game minutes.

• Drake Maye has to be wary of holding on to the ball for too long: As Jared Goff showed in Super Bowl 53, there may not be much open if the Seahawks deploy seven coverage defenders and let Maye read the field.

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Estimated Reading Time: 16 minutes

On Sunday, Drake Maye will become the fourth quarterback under the age of 25 to participate in a Super Bowl in the PFF era (since 2006). Throughout this time, we have eight total examples of a quarterback leading their team to the Super Bowl within their first three NFL seasons. 

We revisited these Super Bowl performances to see if we could spot any trends among younger, less-experienced signal-callers stepping into the biggest game on the football calendar. 

There are clear advantages to having a veteran quarterback when reaching this stage of the season. Most exude a sense of calm and comfortability that no young quarterback can offer — no matter how relaxed Maye appears when he trots out for New England’s opening drive on Sunday. But, we shouldn’t dismiss the upside youthful quarterbacks often bring over their aging counterparts.

Consider that this will be the first Super Bowl in Patriots history where they have viable rushing upside at quarterback. Maye is by no means a dual-threat quarterback in the same fashion as Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, but it was his legs that carried the Patriots over the line in a dogfight AFC Championship Game in Denver. The Patriots will allow their young star to call his own number in crunch time once more if this situation allows.

One thing that sticks out most when revisiting prior young quarterbacks to feature in Super Bowls is how safely they navigated the opening quarter of action. These quarterbacks combined for just one first-quarter turnover-worthy play (via Patrick Mahomes in his Super Bowl debut) — a turnover-worthy-play rate of 1.5%. All of the more-experienced Super Bowl quarterbacks almost doubled that with a rate of 3.7%. 

The youngsters’ combined average depth of target in first quarters was just 7.2 yards, which is low but not unusual on its own — after all, it makes sense to ease your young quarterback into the biggest game of his career. However, it gets very interesting after the first quarter concludes. 

In the second quarter and beyond, these young quarterbacks’ average depth of target skyrockets to 11.7 yards. For context, the league-wide average depth of target this season (excluding first quarters) was 8.5. These players really became unleashed once they had a quarter of Super Bowl action under their belt. 

The results of turning these players loose was mixed. In Mahomes’ case, his pair of second-half interceptions and three sacks opened the door for the 49ers, who just couldn’t capitalize. Meanwhile, when Jalen Hurts attacked downfield in Super Bowl 57, he delivered one of the finest performances of his entire career. Ultimately, Mahomes won while Hurts lost, proving that it will come down to much more than just Maye on Sunday. 

The groove the Seahawks’ offense has been as of late suggests Maye will need to go for broke and take risks in this game to keep pace, but the Patriots’ defensive chances remain relatively unknown in this matchup. Until we see Klint Kubiak’s unit firing on all cylinders, there’s no reason for Maye to start dialing up the hero ball in the early stages.

Overall, the best performance from a young quarterback in modern Super Bowl history was delivered by Russell Wilson, when his Seahawks dominated the Broncos 43-8 in Super Bowl 48. Wilson completed 72% of his passes, with 8.2 yards per attempt and a 123.1 passer rating — all of which are in the top 10 of Super Bowl performances in the PFF era. 

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The worst showing is unquestionably Jared Goff’s Super Bowl 53 defeat against the Patriots, when his high-flying Rams offense mustered just three points. Goff finished the game with a 49.2 PFF passing grade — the fourth lowest of any Super Bowl quarterback in PFF history.

In particular, Goff struggled mightily against New England’s standard four-man pass rush with just 3.4 yards per attempt, as Bill Belichick’s creative usage of his seven coverage defenders bewildered the young quarterback into holding the ball for over 3.3 seconds on average. Drake Maye has several examples of holding the ball for that length of time this season, including three of his last four-regular season games. 

We know Mike Macdonald has the expertise to devise a gameplan just as devastating as Belichick once did, and Maye’s tendency to hang onto the ball has hurt him already during this playoff run. No quarterback has ever taken more sacks throughout a playoff run prior to a Super Bowl than Maye (15). 

We’ve gone this far in the article without mentioning Sam Darnold. Despite having 100 career NFL starts under his belt, while also riding the bench for a season in the very stadium hosting Super Bowl 60, this remains uncharted territory for Darnold. 

The tough reality is that Darnold will need to deliver on Sunday to finally put to bed the claims that he “can’t get it done” when it matters most. Super Bowl 60 is the final act of his legacy reclamation project which began in Minnesota last season. 

The “Same Old Darnold” takes which flooded every online platform following last season’s wild-card round capitulation shouldn’t be forgotten about. It’s a narrative that could rear its ugly head once more if Darnold has any hand in the Seahawks coming up short on Sunday.  

It’s unfortunate because Darnold’s NFC Championship Game performance — where he returned the favor for his struggling defense after benefitting from their elite play all season long — already disproved whatever narrative still remained for the vast majority of rational football fans. 

Most will tell you Darnold has more to lose on Sunday, and there is no right or wrong answer, but people of this opinion usually cite that the 23-year-old Maye will almost certainly be back in a Super Bowl at some point in his promising career. 

Of course, the same was said about 23-year-old Dan Marino when he was defeated in his first Super Bowl. Marino never returned. Similarly, those who proclaimed that Joe Burrow would become a mainstay of Super Bowls throughout the 2020s following his second-year loss are beginning to get antsy. 

Nothing is guaranteed, especially in the ever-stacked land of AFC quarterbacks. To me, that’s what makes this Super Bowl special. When we have watched Tom Brady and Mahomes play in Super Bowls over the years, we knew those games as just another chapter in a long, overwhelmingly successful story. But in the case of Darnold, the chance to rectify a bad performance this Sunday may never come about again.  

For all the trends, data points and historical parallels, the Super Bowl still has a habit of defying our pre-supposed conclusions. Some first-time quarterbacks rise immediately, others learn the hard way and some never get the chance again.