This week, more conversation about the future of Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph was fueled by an interview between Detroit Free Press’ Dave Birkett and former NFL doctor David Chao. The two discussed Joseph’s knee injury that cost him 11 games this season, and while I won’t get into the details of Chao’s analysis—seeing as neither Birkett nor Chao appear to have a confirmed diagnosis of Joseph’s condition—let’s just say he is not optimistic about Joseph’s future in the NFL. There has been conflicting information regarding whether Joseph’s knee condition is career-altering. I am not willing to speculate, nor do I desire to further fuel any theories.
However, I think it’s worth exploring the financial impact of Joseph’s newly signed four-year $85 million extension, signed less than a year ago, given the uncertain nature of his future.
Because the contract is fairly uniquely structured—and because sites like OverTheCap and Spotrac can be slightly misleading in the way they are displaying the contracts—it has led to some misunderstandings about Joseph’s deal and the Lions’ options moving forward. Case in point: both OTC and Spotrac suggest the Lions would only incur minimal dead cap hits if Detroit opted to part ways in 2027 or 2028. Unfortunately, that is not the reality. The situation is much worse.
The reasoning is that those figures don’t include what is at the heart of Joseph’s contract: huge option bonuses every year. The Lions opted to give Joseph low salaries each year of his contract, with the highest being $1.435 million in 2029. However, each of those salaries is accompanied by significant option bonuses, which function much like a signing bonus—their cap hit is spread over the remaining years of the contract (up to five maximum). Here are those option bonus amounts for each season:
- 2026 option bonus: $9,625,000 ($1.925M cap hit per year)
- 2027 option bonus: $16,580,000 ($3.316M cap hit per year)
- 2028 option bonus: $19,035,000 ($3.807M cap hit per year)
- 2029 option bonus: $23,905,000 ($4.781M cap hit per year)
The advantage of option bonuses is that it lessens the cap hit each year by essentially dividing that amount by five over the next five years. For example, Joseph’s $9.625 million option bonus for this year will only count $1.925 million against the cap for each of the next five years. If that was just a $9.625 million salary, all of it would count against the Lions’ 2026 cap.
The downside of option bonuses is that the Lions will have to deal with the larger amounts if they choose to terminate the contract early. As soon as the Lions exercise each individual option, they become guaranteed. The minute the contract is terminated, all of the remaining prorations on Joseph’s contract come due on the cap immediately.
Confused? Let’s use a visual of Joseph’s contract to explain.
Here’s what Joseph’s contract looks like on a per-year basis if Detroit opts to cut ties with Joseph in 2028, before that year’s option bonus kicks in:
If the Lions cut ties with Joseph in 2028, they will still owe dead cap for:
- 2 signing bonus prorations (around $2.002M each)
- 3 prorations from his 2026 option bonus ($1.925M each)
- 4 prorations from his 2027 option bonus ($3.316M each)
That’s a total of over $23 million in dead cap. If Joseph were healthy and still playing at a high level, the Lions could keep him, and his cap hit would only be $13 million for that season, thanks to this option-bonus structured contract. But, as you can see, Detroit would essentially be paying double the cap hit for Joseph not to play. As you get deeper into Joseph’s contract and those option bonuses increase in size, it only becomes harder to get out of the contract at a reasonable cap hit.
The (relative) good news is that it doesn’t quite hurt as much if Detroit opts to cut ties after 2026. It’s still not as good as the $6 million in dead cap that OTC suggests (it’s over double that), but because Joseph’s option bonus is only $9.625 million in 2026, it becomes a little easier to eat all at once. Here’s that visual breakdown:
In this case, the Lions owe three signing bonus prorations and four prorations from Joseph’s 2026 option bonus. That totals about $13.7 million in dead cap. Again, that number is much higher than the cap hit if Joseph plays on his 2027 cap hit ($9.16 million), so it would cost the Lions money to cut him. But that’s about as clean a release as Detroit can possibly get in this contract if they want out early.
If you’re wondering what it would cost to cut him this year before his 2026 option is due on March 20, there is a complication in that matter. He is due $11.5 million in guaranteed new money this year, meaning Detroit would be on the hook for that, plus the four remaining signing bonus prorations (just over $8 million), leaving a hefty $19.5 million dead cap hit, when he’d only cost about $5.5 against the cap if he stayed on the team.
At this point, we have only rumors and speculation to work off of regarding Joseph’s long-term health. But when it comes to his standing on the Lions’ roster and his contractual ties, the conclusion is clear: Detroit has a decision to make at the end of the 2026 season. If the outlook is positive, they can enjoy a few more seasons of relatively cheap cap hits for a top-tier safety. If there’s any concern about his long-term health, the 2027 offseason is the time to cut ties, because it’ll only get more and more messy after that.
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