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Fantasy Football: Examining expected fantasy points for wide receivers through catchable target rate
While catchable target rates are unstable from year to year, they are a valuable tool to evaluate a wide receiver’s potential positive or negative regression in fantasy football.
Some players benefited significantly from accurate passes in 2025: While players like Stefon Diggs and Zay Flowers were aided by high-end accuracy, there’s reason to expect regression in 2026.
Others lost out on production due to inaccuracy: Justin Jefferson, Emeka Egbuka and Tee Higgins could have had much better seasons with just average passing accuracy in their directions this past year. Each is primed to bounce back in 2026.
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Estimated Reading Time: 7minutes
A lot goes into a player’s fantasy football production. For pass catchers, one of the most important factors is their quarterback’s accuracy.
Focusing entirely on targets that PFF has deemed catchable, this article will look at which players benefited the most and least in fantasy football (Weeks 1-17) from catchable targets while utilizing each player’s receiving metrics to project how they might fare next season.
The formula to determine each player’s expected fantasy points is as follows:
Expected catchable targets = Positional average catchable target rate (72%) * actual targets
Expected fantasy points = PPR scoring for adjusted receptions, adjusted yards and adjusted touchdowns
Snap threshold to be included = Minimum of 100 routes and 10 targets
A wide receiver’s catchable target rate has mostly proven to be an unstable metric in recent years (average correlation of just 0.2894 since 2023), so this exercise can be valuable in adding context for potential positive or negative regression candidates next season.
Among wide receivers who ranked in the 80th percentile or better in expected fantasy totals based on catchable target rate, almost all saw an above-average catchable target rate. And all increased their fantasy production on the season as a result (Weeks 1-17).
Considering the instability of catchable target rate, some of these pass catchers may be bound for worse numbers in 2026 if their quarterbacks regress in accuracy. Others who were able to deliver over expectations despite a below-average catchable target rate become more intriguing for next season, particularly if their targeted accuracy improves.
Players of Note
Diggs was the main beneficiary of Drake Maye’s breakout, as he saw an elite 88% catchable target rate — a 95th-percentile mark for the position.
As a result, Diggs logged around 15 additional receptions and more than 180 receiving yards than if he had recorded only a league-average catchable target rate.
That production boost allowed for a WR14 overall finish in PPR scoring. If he had seen a league-average catchable target rate, he would have been around WR30.
Considering the volatility of catchable target rate, as well as Diggs’ age, it would not be surprising if he regresses closer to that WR3 range in 2026.
Diggs will be a good option to potentially trade away for a profit this offseason in dynasty leagues, as his value is likely never going to be as high.
Flowers was one of the most surprising top-10 fantasy wide receivers in 2025. As managers who rostered Flowers will likely say, he never felt like a top-10 player outside of a couple of weeks.
And for the most part, that was true: He was the WR1 overall in Week 1 and then had 10 consecutive games in which he finished between WR23 and WR87.
Flowers was better from Weeks 14-17, earning the seventh-most PPR points, but again, there should be some hesitation about valuing him too highly.
He was a significant beneficiary of an unstable 82% catchable target rate, allowing for an additional 10 receptions and 141 receiving yards compared to the league average.
This moved Flowers from an expected WR26 finish to WR10. He is one of the biggest regression candidates heading into 2026.
Samuel is another veteran whose value was boosted in 2025 because of a high-end 82% catchable target rate from three Commanders quarterbacks.
One of the league’s lowest average target depths (5.6 yards) aided Samuel, and that shallow-target role could help him avoid regression in 2026.
Samuel went from an expected WR36 finish to a WR24 ranking this past season, although he also saw an increase in targets with Terry McLaurin missing half the season.
Samuel’s age, injury history and low average target depth will likely contribute to a lower fantasy finish next season, in addition to McLaurin’s return and a potentially lower catchable target rate.
Fantasy managers likely won’t value Samuel too highly this offseason, anyway. But he’s worth highlighting here in case there is hope for repeatable production in 2026.
Last season with the Bears, Allen recorded one of the lowest catchable target rates in the league (68%). He regressed positively this season, as expected.
His return to Los Angeles and reunification with Justin Herbert paid off in a big way in 2025, as his production and efficiency improved almost across the board.
Allen’s jump to WR30 from an expected WR35 finish was subtle, but it’s a good example of how things can change year to year because of catchable target rates.
Last year, Allen saw nearly as many targets (117) as this year (118) and finished as the WR35 despite an expected finish between WR26-WR30, which is the range he landed in this year.
Even though his metrics were better this year, Allen should be on regression radars because of his expected fantasy points — which is a more stable metric — and his status as a pending free agent.
Chargers teammate Ladd McConkey is another good example of how expected fantasy points and potential regression can impact a player from year to year. He was expected to be the WR22 last year but benefited from an elite catchable target rate. This season, he regressed (WR27), as his catchable target rate dipped to slightly below average (70.6%).
Williams’ catchable target rate improved to 78% this season, up from 70% last season. That and his improved workload allowed for his best fantasy finish to date (WR13).
Williams’ above-average catchable target rate made a significant difference in where he finished this season, as he was expected to be the WR22 based on this data.
With only 22.4 PPR points separating WR13 and WR24, Williams’ improved target accuracy was enough to potentially increase his value in the eyes of those who put more stock into seasonal finishes.
Williams is still a solid WR2 option for fantasy at this point. But nearly cracking the top 12 as a fringe WR1 in 2025 isn’t a likely repeat outcome for 2026.
Unlike with Deebo Samuel, Williams’ higher 13.5-yard average depth of target makes his catchable target rate more volatile, as was the case in 2023 (69%) and 2024 (70%) when he logged below-average marks with an above-average depth of target.
WR FANTASY PERFORMERS BELOW EXPECTATIONS
Those in the bottom 20th percentile saw below-average catchable target rates, and their overall fantasy finish on the year suffered as a result. Again, if these players see increased accuracy next season, which is entirely possible due to the metric’s unstable nature, they could very easily enjoy much better fantasy seasons.
Players of Note
Egbuka started the year off hot but came back down to earth in the latter half of the season. He seemingly hit a “rookie wall,” going from the PPR WR4 in Weeks 1-5 to the WR42 over the next 11 games.
He saw a very low 58.5% catchable target rate. Even with an average catchable target rate, he would have an expected WR9 finish instead of his actual WR21 finish.
With an average catchable target rate, Egbuka would have added 13 receptions, more than 200 receiving yards and potentially another touchdown.
With this in mind, and understanding that a high-end prospect like Egbuka can improve in year two, he has a shot to be a massive riser in 2026. Dynasty managers should jump on Egbuka’s relatively low cost due to his quiet finish to the year.
Pierce is coming off his best fantasy season, slotting in as the PPR WR37 in 2025. However, his 58% catchable target rate certainly kept that finish in check.
Pierce’s high average depth of target (19.9 yards) naturally created low-percentage throws, so his expected WR20 finish is among the most optimistic of outcomes. It would be hard for him to reach an average catchable target rate in his current role.
Even last season, Pierce logged just a 63% catchable target rate on a 22.8-yard average target depth.
Pierce is set to enter free agency. Should he remain with the Colts, he will be a question mark due to the team’s quarterback situation in 2026. Starting quarterback Daniel Jones is also a pending free agent and is coming off a torn Achilles.
Monitor the Colts’ offense this offseason, and if they look to be in a good position to bounce back, Pierce could have an even better season if the front office opts to re-sign him.
Odunze was a victim of uncatchable targets as a rookie, and unfortunately, he was an outlier again in 2025.
Making matters worse is that Odunze’s catchable target rate (59%) actually dipped from last season’s poor 61% clip, making him and Adonai Mitchell the only two players to repeat in the bottom 10th percentile this year from 2024.
The lack of accuracy in Odunze’s direction this year cost him a potential WR27 finish and a theoretical 10 receptions, 140-plus receiving yards and likely a touchdown.
Odunze’s 14-plus-yard average target depth through two seasons has seemingly been a problem for Caleb Williams and their connection in the passing game. The hope is that it will ideally regress positively in year three, helping Odunze produce a usable WR2 season for the first time.
It’s undeniable that Jefferson’s 2025 fantasy season was a disappointment, and it should come as no surprise that inaccurate passes were a factor.
After being drafted as a top-three fantasy wide receiver heading into the 2025 campaign, he finished as the overall PPR WR26 despite playing in all 16 games during the fantasy season.
Just average accuracy would have greatly minimized the disappointment of Jefferson’s season, allowing for a likely eight more receptions and close to 100 receiving yards.
While that doesn’t seem like much, it’s essentially a whole game’s worth of production that we missed out on.
Quarterback play will likely be a big question mark again in 2026 for the Vikings, but the data has shown that a player’s catchable target rate is unstable and can bounce back positively — even with the same quarterback.
Jefferson is too talented not to be a bounce-back candidate in 2026. If his quarterback play improves at all, he should once again push for top-12 production at the position, if not higher.
Joe Burrow‘s 10 missed games hurt Higgins’ fantasy potential in 2025.
The wideout’s 64% catchable target rate ranked in just the 25th percentile at the position, which kept him far from an expected WR12 finish. He ultimately finished as the overall WR22.
While teammate Ja’Marr Chase maintained an above-average catchable target rate, even without Burrow at quarterback, Higgins ended up with a wildly different outcome.
Without Burrow, Higgins saw an abysmal 58% catchable target rate. That number jumped to 78% with Burrow under center.
Drafted as a high-end WR2 this past season, Higgins should have comfortably returned that value if Burrow stayed healthy. Heading into 2026, he should have a good shot to do so.
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