The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks have booked their tickets to the Super Bowl. The Detroit Lions, meanwhile, are left wondering what it would take to be in their shoes.
After a 9-8 season in which the Lions barely sniffed the playoff picture, Detroit has a lot to envy from these two Super Bowl teams. It is also not difficult to envision the Lions in a similar situation. They have had an elite offense, they have had star players on defense—why did success not materialize like it did for Seattle or New England?
Today’s Question of the Day is:
What are the Detroit Lions missing to be a Super Bowl-caliber team?
My answer: Consistency.
Despite a rough season for the Lions, I think we can all agree that we saw flashes of a Super Bowl-caliber team. The offense looked dominant at times. Even the defense, marred by injuries, performed like a shutdown unit at times. The key words, however, are “at times”—great football teams are great on a weekly basis, and the Lions simply were not.
The Patriots and Seahawks got to the Super Bowl on two very different paths. New England lost their Hall of Fame quarterback in Tom Brady. The team had a flash of success with Mac Jones at first, but they quickly bottomed out and found themselves staring down another quarterback selection. This time, however, the pick worked out thanks to MVP-candidate Drake Maye. Coupled with the hiring of Mike Vrabel, the team has found their way back to the championship game.
Seattle, meanwhile, traded away their star quarterback Russell Wilson for a king’s ransom, a ransom that turned into some key pieces (OT Charles Cross, CB Devon Witherspoon) for an on-the-fly retooling. The Seahawks found a resurgent Geno Smith to quarterback the team and led the team to three seasons with a winning record. Despite his new-found form, Seattle aimed higher and dealt Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders and signed Sam Darnold. Safe to say that the gamble paid off.
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) tells an interesting story of the Patriots, Seahawks, and even the Lions. The Patriots had the third-overall offense by DVOA, a unit that undoubtedly carried them to the postseason. Their defense lagged behind (23rd overall), but they were also a unit that surrendered more than 30 points just once across the entire season—that is impressive, DVOA be damned. As for the Seahawks, they secured the top overall DVOA ranking with relative ease, thanks to the top-ranked defense and a top-10 offense.
Where do the Lions stack up? Surprisingly well. DVOA has their offense ranked seventh overall, while their defense ranked ninth. A pair of top-10 units made the Lions the third-best team by DVOA. With a 9-8 record, it certainly did not feel that way.
Part of this comes from a tough schedule, but I think it also highlights the inconsistency with the Lions—after a strong start to the season, the team became riddled with it. The offense let them down against the Kansas City Chiefs, but the defense stepped up the following week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After the bye, the defense pitched a surprisingly effective game against the Minnesota Vikings, but the offense was under fire. Back and forth, back and forth, the offense and defense rarely found themselves in sync.
When you look back at the Patriots’ and Seahawks’ road to the Super Bowl, you see two teams that were consistently good or great. When I look back at the Lions, I see a team that was either really hot or really cold—teams like that rarely make the Super Bowl. Look at the contrast between Week 10 and Week 11. Against the Commanders, the Lions played their most complete game of the season, with both the offense and defense humming. They followed it up with arguably their worst game of the season, an embarrassing nine-point display against the Philadelphia Eagles.
If the Lions want to make a Super Bowl of their own, they need to find a truly reliable aspect of their identity, whether that means a dominant offense every week, a stonewall defense, or a combination of the two. In 2025, we had to wonder which Lions team we would get each week. That cannot be the case going forward.
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