The first domino to fall: Fernando Mendoza’s official declaration for the 2026 NFL Draft.
That happened Friday, as expected. Friday was the final day for prospects on Indiana and Miami — the two teams who played in the College Football Playoffs National Championship — to declare for the draft.
Now that the Indiana quarterback has officially made himself draft eligible, the second domino to fall is a Silver & Black one. Mendoza’s pivotal decision point portends to one for the Las Vegas Raiders: Selecting the Hoosiers signal caller No. 1 overall.
Yes, while we’re very early in the offseason — namely the Raiders don’t even have a head coach yet — and the draft is a mere twinkle in everyone’s eye even in late January — the event takes place from April 23 to 26 in Pittsburgh, after all — it’s difficult to see the Silver & Black not taking the much ballyhooed prospect. It’s also hard not to mention the top Raiders’ decision-makers — owner Mark Davis, minority owner Tom Brady, and general manager John Spytek — were in attendance to see Mendoza up close and personal in that national title tilt.
The Raiders have a void at the quarterback position despite having veterans Geno Smith and Aidan O’Connell under contract for next season. Anyone who says otherwise is as sound of mind as Brennan Carroll was as effective offensive line coach.
Considering Smith’s arrival to Las Vegas was directly tied with the one-and-done tenure of former head coach Pete Carroll, his continued venture with the Raiders is very much up in the air. He’s under contract for two more seasons with a $26.5 million camp number and, according to Over The Cap, cutting the 35-year-old quarterback pre- or post-June 1 have the same ramifications: $18.5 million in dead cap and $8 million in cap savings.
O’Connell, on the other hand, has a very minute cap number in comparison — $3.732-plus million — on the final year of his rookie deal and turns 28 on September 1. A serviceable backup and spot starter, O’Connell likely remains with a miniscule-by-comparison salary.
But neither those two aforementioned signal callers are franchise types and Las Vegas rolling the dice on Mendoza seems apt. And for two obvious reasons:
- The Raiders have a dire need for a long-term solution at quarterback.
- The dearth draft eligible quarterback prospects in this draft class
Mendoza Line
No, this isn’t referring to the baseball term for a .200 batting average.
Listed at 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds, football’s incoming Mendoza has the physical traits, skillset, and hardware befitting of a top overall selection in the NFL Draft. Before the quarterback helped Indiana drop Miami in the title game, he won the Heisman Trophy topping finalists Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt quarterback), Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame running back), and Julian Sayin (Ohio State quarterback).
Mendzoa’s ability to throw the rock with zip and accuracy was on full display this season as he threw for 3,535 yards, 41 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. His 72 percent completion rate (273 of 379) was a testament to his accurate ways. The quarterback also added 276 yards and seven touchdowns on 90 carries.
With a quick release and accuracy to boot, the quarterback showcased poise, mental toughness, resilience, and leadership in some very intense, high-pressure situations during Indiana’s run to the national championship.
With head coach Curt Cignetti leading the way, Mendoza was instrumental in the Hoosiers’ undefeated championship season showing moxie when he got rocked with a hit by Miami. And who can forget the diving touchdown into the end zone?
The 2026 Class
There’s a reason some folks in Raider Nation were jumping for joy when Las Vegas earned the No. 1 overall pick int he draft.
Mendoza is the headliner and, after Oregon’s Dante Moore made the decision to go back to school, the quarterback class took quite the hit. The Hoosiers’ and Ducks’ signal callers were earmarked as 1A and 1B and without Moore, it’s quite the dip.
The gap between Mendoza and Alabama’s Ty Simpson is wide and then there’s Penn State’s Drew Allar and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik. Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss is a senior, however, he’s filed suit in Mississippi court seeking a sixth season in college after the NCCA denied a waiver for a sixth year of eligibility.
With Mendoza the clear-cut first-round quarterback prospect, Simpson declaring is a wise choice in hindsight as a quarterback-needy team could make him a first- or second-round choice. And because of the dearth of prospects available, if the Raiders do indeed want a quarterback, it’s Mendoza or nothing in late April.
Free Agent Route
Like mentioned above, the unrestricted free agents at the quarterback position is equally a wasteland. Daniel Jones is atop the list and was having a career year for the Indianapolis Colts before injuries wiped out his 2025 campaign after just 13 games. The Colts want him back and Jones is interested in a return, too.
Then the list is a mix of super veterans — Aaron Rodgers (43 years old), Russell Wilson (38), Marcus Mariota (33), Tyrod Taylor (37), and Joe Flacco (41) — before getting to Zach Wilson (27), Kenny Pickett (28), and Trey Lance (26).
Las Vegas could eye the trade market for the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow, or Arizona Cardinals’ Kyler Murray, but that’d mean parting with draft picks. No bueno.
The Raiders future head coach will likely have input on what the team does with the top pick in the 2026 draft. And Mendoza will be there for the picking. Or, if a team is willing to offer a king’s bounty for the No. 1 pick and sending multiple selections and perhaps a player, that may sway the Silver & Black.
But to be perfectly honest, it’s the Raiders own pussyfooting ways that got them into such a dire need of quarterback.
And selecting Mendoza goes a long way into solving that.
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