When the Los Angeles Rams were set to take on the Chicago Bears in the NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs, many assumed there would be a lot of points. After all, this was a matchup between two of the best offensive minds in the NFL going head-to-head in Sean McVay and Ben Johnson.
Instead, it was the two defenses leading the way. The Rams defense forced three turnovers and held the Bears to 3-for-6 on fourth down. Chicago had three empty possessions in scoring range, including two inside the 25-yard line.
It was this time last year that the Rams defense let the team down in the postseason. They allowed 285 yards rushing to the Philadelphia Eagles who went 3-for-3 in the red zone and were 4-for-5 on fourth down. Sunday against the Bears was their biggest test yet. The Bears were one of the best rushing teams in the NFL with 142.3 yards per game.
Over the offseason, the Rams built their team for this moment. They went out and signed Poona Ford to man the middle of their defensive line. They also upgraded at linebacker, moving on from Christian Rozeboom and signing Nate Landman from the Atlanta Falcons. Landman certainly has his limitations, but he was someone they could trust to be in the right place at the right time.
In the frigid cold at Soldier Field, running the ball was going to play a key role. While the Bears had 112 yards, it came on 32 carries. Kyle Monangai had a 47.9 percent rushing success rate on the season. The Rams held him to a 30.8 percent rushing success rate. D’Andre Swift had a 47.1 percent rushing success rate in the regular season. Swift was better, but even he was held to a 42.1 percent rushing success rate.
The Bears tried to wear down the Rams defense on the ground, but it was a group that continually won in the trenches. It’s fair to note that the left side of the Bears’ offensive line was less than 100 percent. However, the Rams dominated at the point of attack and the longest run by a running back was 15 yards by Monangai.
With the Bears not having the ability to find consistency on the ground, especially in short-yardage, it impacted how Johnson could call the game. The usual aggressive Johnson became more conservative. After being stopped on 4th-and-1 late in the second quarter, the Bears punted on a 4th-and-2 at midfield to start the fourth quarter. That was a very strong ‘go’ call via Ben Baldwin’s RBSDM and ESPN Analytics.
One of the more surprising decisions was when the Bears tied the game with 18 seconds left in regulation. Instead of opting to go for two and potentially win the game right there, Johnson decided to just take the extra point. After the game, Johnson noted,
“Probably what played a little bit of a factor was our goal-to-go situations hadn’t gone very clean. Our inside the five plan hadn’t worked out quite like we had hoped. I just felt better about taking our chances there in overtime.”
The Bears were inside the five twice in the game and had just come up empty-handed on the previous possession. In the first quarter, the Bears were stuffed at the three-yard line before scoring on fourth down. Late in the fourth quarter, the Bears ran four plays inside the five and came up empty. Quentin Lake and Omar Speights played big roles in that stop.
While the defense also had three turnovers, it was their down-to-down consistency that really shined. They showed up in the high variance moments and that ended up being the difference. It’s also what they’ve done throughout the postseason. In the previous week, the Rams held the Panthers to 0-for-3 on fourth down.
They say defense wins championships. The Rams may not have the best defense in the NFL, but over the past two weeks they’ve made key plays that have been crucial to the team’s run to the NFC Championship. The offense may have struggled, but the defense held on and kept the Rams in the game. When the offense went three-and-out, it was the defense that got one more stop to give Matthew Stafford another chance.
Kevin Dotson Returns
The Rams had been without Kevin Dotson for each of the past three games and his presence was certainly missed. With the return of Dotson, running back Kyren Williams had 53 yards on 12 carries and scored two touchdowns with a 66.7 percent success rate while running to the right. He had a 22.2 percent success rate running to the left.
It says a lot and the impact that a player has when the offense is three times more effective running to that side of the field. The Rams didn’t commit to the run until late in the game, but when they did, they had the most success behind Dotson and going to the right side. They’ll need to lean on the run game more against the Seahawks, but they should have the confidence with Dotson back in the lineup.
Stafford off, but still MVP-level
Matthew Stafford didn’t play well in this game. He didn’t complete 50 percent of his passes and nearly turned the ball over three times. With that said, there were still a few iconic Stafford moments. The most obvious one came in overtime on his throw to Davante Adams.
The Rams quarterback threw from the far hash to the far sideline and placed the ball perfectly low and away. It’s also worth noting the cornerback that Stafford threw the pass against. Nahshon Wright has an arm length of 32.88 inches which is in the 91st percentile for a cornerback. This is why the Rams trust Stafford. While he can go stretches without completing a pass, with the game on the line, Stafford typically brings out his best. His completion to Adams had a 28.8 percent completion probability and was an MVP-caliber throw in crunch time.
