The Chicago Bears have bowed out from the NFL playoffs, thus marking the end of the 2025 NFC North. Along with the Detroit Lions, the Green Bay Packers, and the Minnesota Vikings, the division fell short of the Super Bowl. The division has not sent a team to the big game since Super Bowl XLV all the way back in 2011, a streak only beaten by the paltry AFC South.
With the 2025 season in the books for the four foes, they each enter the offseason with aspirations of success in 2026—some teams want to reclaim it, while other want to maintain it. Only one team can claim the NFC North crown, but which one is best situated to win it?
Today’s Question of the Day is:
Which team will win the NFC North in 2026?
My answer: The Detroit Lions. Trying to look at this question with an unbiased lens is difficult, but I will try my best. Let’s try to break it down into digestible categories.
Strength of schedule
This could easily be the deciding factor for how the NFC North shakes out, and this is arguably Detroit’s greatest strength entering 2026. As the fourth-place team, the Lions are fortunate to avoid a gauntlet of top-tier NFC teams. The entire NFC North will share their AFC East and NFC South opponents, but as the last-place team in the division, the Lions will subsequently play three last-place teams: the Arizona Cardinals (3-14), the New York Giants (4-13), and the Tennessee Titans (3-14).
Inversely, the Bears, as division winners, have to face the Seattle Seahawks (14-3), the Philadelphia Eagles (11-6), and the Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4). The Packers have to face the Los Angeles Rams (12-5), the Dallas Cowboys (7-9-1), and the Houston Texans (12-5). Even the NFC North’s third-place team, the Vikings, face a tough task of the San Francisco 49ers (12-5), the Washington Commanders (5-12), and the Indianapolis Colts (8-9). In what could be a tight race for the NFC North, the Lions have the easiest slate on paper.
Roster
Schedules do not win games, teams do. Of the four NFC North teams, I think the Lions are set up best. They have no shortage of weapons on offense with a capable quarterback at the helm. The elephant in the room in the offensive line, but I do believe it is an easier fix than 2025 would have you believe—another year of experience for Tate Ratledge, Christian Mahogany, and even Miles Frazier could be crucial for a rebound up front. For all of the defense’s faults, they were still an above-average unit across the entire season despite multiple injuries in the secondary. If the Lions return their current core, the only glaring weakness I see is at defensive end across from Aidan Hutchinson.
The Bears boasted an exciting offense in 2025, but their defense let them down. I do not see them as a quick signee or draft pick away from having an elite defense. Additionally, they were monumentally lucky in 2025. The Bears and Caleb Williams deserve praise for their league-leading six fourth quarter comebacks, but those are not sustainable. For example, Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins had eight fourth quarter comebacks in 2016 and 202, respectively. The following seasons, they had one and zero, respectively. Winning one-score games is a coin toss more often than not, and the 2025 Bears simply won most of those tosses.
The Packers are an interesting case, as they have some elite talent, but their offensive line and secondary need significant retooling. As for the Vikings, they are in limbo given the lack of progress from J.J. McCarthy, numerous weaknesses on offense and defense, and a lack of cap space to make it all work. Speaking of which…
Salary cap space
The entire NFC North is in the red when it comes to salary cap space in 2026, though those will surely be alleviated with restructures and releases. Of the four teams, the Lions and Bears are in a more favorable situation; on the other end, the Vikings are buried by contracts despite a bad roster. I won’t pretend to know about which cap-saving moves could come from the other NFC North teams, but I do know that the Lions have some obvious restructures like Jared Goff and Penei Sewell that would save multiple millions. The Lions are up against the cap, but they at least boast a good roster.
Coaching
This is one category where the Lions lag behind. They enter 2025 with a need at offensive coordinator after a failed stint with John Morton, though there are some interesting options. A coach like Mike McDaniel might catapult the Lions up the coordinator rankings, but as always, it takes time for a coach and roster to mesh, if it happens at all. I think Dan Campbell works best as a manager (a good one at that) than a play caller, so the hope is that the Lions find someone to take that burden from him. As for Kelvin Sheppard on defense, his first season as coordinator was a learning experience, but I saw enough promise to make me optimistic for 2026.
I think that the Bears have the best coaching staff, though there is a decent chance they lose some of their position coaches this offseason. Regardless, Ben Johnson clearly elevated a Bears offense, and Dennis Allen did a decent job with a subpar Bears defense. The remaining head coaches in the NFC North, Mike LaFleur and Kevin O’Connell, rank highly among NFL coaches, but both teams are primed to lose their defensive coordinators.
Overall
The 2024 Lions season feels like an age ago, but it really is not. The Lions are fortunate that the core of their roster is well-entrenched—this is not a team that needs significant reconstruction. I have no doubt that the Bears or Packers will compete for the NFC North title, but it isn’t difficult to envision the Lions rebounding with better fortune.
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