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Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) vs. Chicago Bears [Total: 48.5]

Game Overview

The Rams and Bears claimed dramatic wins in the wild-card round, with each needing to mount a late touchdown drive to take the lead. Yet, the two teams profile quite differently in how they’ve operated this season, with the Rams being one of the best squads in the NFL out of the gate, while the Bears stand as one of the best finishers. 

Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ offense are known for their ability to put their best foot forward and get out to a strong start. Head coach Sean McVay continues to be among the best gameplanners in the league, as the Rams stand as one of four teams to generate positive EPA on more than 50% of their scripted plays (first 15 plays). They are more than 5 percentage points ahead of the next-best team. 

For the inverse, look no further than Ben Johnson’s Bears, who are the NFL’s premier team at closing out games. Chicago stands atop the NFL in EPA per play (0.157) in the fourth quarter and overtime. It’s a credit to quarterback Caleb Williams’ fearless nature to keep plays alive and rip balls downfield, as his 7.6% big-time throw rate late in games ranks fourth in the NFL. 

+EPA% on Scripted Plays (First 15 Plays)

To find the Inverse of that notion, look no further than Ben Johnson’s Bears, who are the NFL’s premier team at closing out games. Chicago stands atop the NFL in EPA per play (0.157) in the fourth quarter and overtime. Credit to Caleb Williams’ fearless nature to keep plays alive and rip balls downfield, as his 7.6% big time throw rate late in games ranks fourth in the NFL. 

Best Bet: Luther Burden III, Chicago Bears: Over 37.5 receiving yards (-113)

Burden has received little recognition for his work as a rookie this season. The first-year receiver is one of the most efficient receivers in the game, with his 2.51 yards per route run average ranking fifth among receivers with at least 100 routes run. That efficiency has allowed the young wideout to eclipse this receiving-yards line in four of his past five games. 

The Rams’ coverage unit has struggled over the back half of the year, as they’ve surrendered both volume and production in bunches to receivers. Since the start of December, Los Angeles has allowed 9.4 yards per coverage target (sixth worst) and 51 open targets (sixth most) to receivers. In the wild-card round, they let the Panthers’ Jalen Coker and Tetairoa McMillan combine for 215 receiving yards.