The Los Angeles Rams are set to play the Chicago Bears on Sunday at Soldier Field in a game to be played in freezing temperatures. They’ll be facing a defense that leads the NFL in interceptions, and a quarterback who’s seen a drop in form (not to be read as played badly).
Back in 2018 on their way to the Super Bowl, the Rams went up against one of the better run defenses in the NFL at the time in the Dallas Cowboys. Despite that, head coach Sean McVay called 39 runs between CJ Anderson and Todd Gurley to Jared Goff’s 28 passes. Anderson and Gurley rushed for 238 yards between them and three touchdowns as the Rams won 30-22.
It was the classic Kyle Shanahan mindset of “We’re going to run it until you show that you can stop it.” On that day, the Cowboys could not stop the Rams rushing attack led by the best run-blocking offensive line in the NFL. The opening two drives of that game were a combined 27 plays and took 12:39 off the clock. Out of those 27 plays, 15 of them were runs. While that only resulted in six points, it set the tone for a game in which the Rams had over 36 minutes in time of possession.
If the Rams are going to beat the Bears, they are going to need a repeat of that performance from seven years ago. A common theme from that 2018 Rams team is that this one has a dominant run-blocking offensive line and two running backs leading the charge. As ESPN’s Benjamin Solak recently wrote,
“According to NFL Next Gen Stats, those 2018 and 2025 Rams are the only two rushing offenses since 2016 with success rates over 50% on carries by running backs. The 2018 team was at 50.13%, while the 2025 Rams are right behind at 50.12%. No cheeky scrambles, no quarterback keeps on read options — pure running back handoffs.“
One of McVay’s biggest criticisms is that he too often gets away from the run game. That criticism is somewhat overblown, but it’s also not inaccurate. This season, the Rams have had the fourth-highest early-down pass rate in the NFL. The only three teams higher than them missed the playoffs. The Rams’ pass-rate of 58.5 percent is their highest since 2021. They currently have a four percent pass rate over expected which is also higher than 2021 when it was three percent.
With Matthew Stafford playing as well as he has this season and Puka Nacua having the type of year that he is, it makes sense to put the ball in the hands of your best players. When the Rams leaned on the run game to win back in Week 5, it folded with a fumble at the goal line and getting stuffed on fourth down to end the game.
However, the Rams have one of the best run games of the last decade. Those 2018 and 2025 teams have been built similarly. They look different in how things are done, but this is a team that leans on the run game and play action passing as they did in the early years of McVay. It was that run game that cleared the path for the Rams to make the Super Bowl and that’s going to be the case this year if they make it that far. It’s something that McVay needs to embrace.
Too often this season, McVay has gotten away from the run game when it’s been working. Back in Week 13, Blake Corum and Kyren Williams averaged 7.7 yards per carry. They only touched the ball 20 times combined. Williams averaged over seven yards per carry against the Falcons while Stafford threw three interceptions. The Rams running back had 13 carries in the game.
That stubbornness to stick with the passing game while the quarterback is struggling nearly cost the Rams last week. With Stafford struggling in the third quarter and after taking a 17-7 lead, McVay called 16 passes to eight runs. At the time, the Rams were averaging over five yards per carry.
This was an area in which the Rams should have been able to dominate in Carolina. During the regular season, the Panthers allowed 4.4 yards per carry which was the 11th-highest in the NFL. The Panthers could be exploited on the ground. However, the Rams continued to throw the ball with their quarterback that wasn’t feeling it for a large stretch. Stafford got back into rhythm in the fourth quarter, but it’s still odd that the play-caller didn’t do more to help in the run game. As Solak wrote,
“In the 2025 season, the Rams’ ground game has again been an understandable afterthought…The passing game is the story of modern football, and as such, it is the story of the 2025 Rams…the running game is the foundation of this elite Rams offense — in 2025 with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum as it was in 2018 with Gurley. Everything they do flows from it…Even in 2021, when the Rams won the Super Bowl, the flow of offensive ideas, of offensive identity, had flipped. The Rams won games through the air, and the running game existed exclusively as a buttress to that effort. In 2025, the contour of the Rams’ offense returned to its 2018 form. The passing game is in total symbiosis with the running game. It’s balanced again.”
A lot has been said this week about Stafford’s performances in cold weather. Much of that is overblown, but it also doesn’t mean that McVay shouldn’t do what he can to help out his quarterback. There’s no denying that Stafford was on a heater to start the year. Stafford tends to have those kinds of stretches and he has begun to come back toward the mean a little bit. That’s not to say that he’s played poorly. He’s still thrown 19 touchdowns to seven interceptions since Week 13 while averaging 311 yards per game.
However, his level has been more volatile than it was in the first three months of the season. Some of that has to do with not having Davante Adams and being without Kevin Dotson. It’s also not the only reason Stafford went from having the fourth-best turnover-worthy play rate at 1.9 percent to the fourth-worst at 4.7 percent.
Much like last week, on paper, the Rams have the advantage in the run game. Kyren Williams has rushed for more than 60 yards in 13 games this season as the Rams average 4.6 yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Bears defense allows 5.0 yards per carry which is the fourth-most and 14 running backs have had 60 or more yards.
The Rams have a 50.1 percent rushing success rate on offense this season which is the best in the NFL by a wide margin. In fact, the gap between the Rams at No. 1 and the Buffalo Bills at No. 2 with 46.6 percent is more than the gap between the Bills at No. 2 and the Green Bay Packers at No. 9.
Meanwhile, the Bears have allowed a 44 percent rushing success rate which is 27th in the NFL. They have also allowed the sixth-highest explosive run-rate this season. With Corum, the Rams have the ninth-most-explosive run game in the NFL with an explosive run-rate of 5.2 percent.
That sets up the passing game where the Bears are the third-worst at defending under center play action. Stafford has been one of the best quarterbacks in under-center play action this season. He’s thrown for 1,735 yards with 24 touchdowns to one interception. His 127.4 passer rating ranks fourth in the NFL.
If McVay gets pass-happy against the Bears in a game that is bound to be a shootout, the Rams will play right into Dennis Allen’s hands. The Rams can’t overly target Davante Adams 13 times like last week and have him catch only five passes.
This isn’t about running the ball for the sake of running it. However, in a cold weather game, against a defense that leads the NFL in interceptions and struggles defending the run and play action, it makes sense. That’s before mentioning Stafford’s recent drop in form or his sprained finger on his throwing hand. Riding Williams and Corum into the NFC Championship and keeping it simple for Stafford is the recipe for success. The question isn’t whether or not it will work, but if McVay can commit to it.
