With the blockbuster news of John Harbaugh agreeing to become the New York Giants’ next head coach, the question becomes: How is he going to lift this team out of the doldrums of the past decade? The Giants have question marks on both sides of the ball. Who Harbaugh hires as defensive coordinator is an important question for a team whose defense, or absence thereof, was the primary reason they did not contend for a playoff berth in 2025.
Still, offense pays the bills in today’s NFL. Harbaugh took over a Baltimore Ravens team in 2008 that had declined from their Super Bowl days under previous head coach Brian Billick, an era in which their defense dominated but the offense was subpar. Since Harbaugh became head coach, the Ravens have drafted two quarterbacks in the first round: Joe Flacco with the No. 18 pick in 2008, and Lamar Jackson with the No. 32 pick (after a trade-up from Round 2) in 2018. Flacco was (and still is) a conventional dropback passer and was not considered an elite quarterback, but he pretty consistently passed for more than 3,000 yards per season, and once over 4000 yards, in the first half of his career. He was good enough to lead the Ravens to a Super Bowl title in 2012.
Jackson is the more interesting case. He was considered a boom-or-bust prospect, with accuracy issues and a slight frame that worried GMs because his running was a big part of his game. Indeed, when he took over as starter late in the 2018 season when Flacco was injured, he completed only 58% of his passes, and while his running sparked the Ravens’ drive to the playoffs, they were one and done because Jackson couldn’t win through the air.
Starting in 2019, though, Jackson’s game took off. He has consistently been well over 60% in completion percentage, has twice led the league in ESPN’s QB rating metric, and won two MVP awards. The contrast between his 2018 and 2019 seasons is stark:
Courtesy of rbsdm.com
Jackson, along with three other rookies, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, and Josh Rosen, were among the NFL’s worst QBs in 2018, completing significantly fewer passes than expected and effectively contributing nothing to their offenses in expected points.
One year later, here was the same figure:
Courtesy of rbsdm.com
In one season, Jackson became an elite NFL quarterback, right up there with Patrick Mahomes. He has gone through a succession of offensive coordinators but remained a top-tier QB throughout. From 2019-2022 his OC was Greg Roman, who has been criticized for being too run-dependent and who was recently relieved of his Los Angeles Chargers OC duties after their disastrous performance in the Wild Card game against New England.
Since 2023, the Ravens’ OC has been Todd Monken, whose offensive philosophy is more pass-oriented. There is a perception that Monken has done a better job, but it’s difficult to see evidence of that in Jackson’s stats:
Courtesy of Pro Football Focus
Yes, Jackson’s 2023 and 2024 were his best seasons to date and that was in Monken’s offense, but his 2019 with Roman was just as good.
Notably, rushing as a significant part of Jackson’s game has not diminished as his career has progressed:
Courtesy of Pro Football Focus
The most recent of Jackson’s three 1,000 rushing seasons came just last year. No more than about a third of his rushing attempts in any season were scrambles, i.e., the Ravens under Harbaugh but under multiple OCs have continued to use Jackson predominantly on designed rushes.
Jackson has lost time to injury in multiple seasons – but never because of a concussion:
Courtesy of Yahoo! Sports
All of that suggests that the almost fanatical obsession in the media, and perhaps in the Giants’ hierarchy, over Dart’s running and concussion risk in 2025 may not be shared by Harbaugh going forward. Dart is as tall as Jackson and 10 pounds heavier (225 vs. 215 pounds), so expect rushing to remain an important part of Dart’s game.
As for the passing side of things, that depends on who the offensive coordinator is. The rumors are that Harbaugh wants to bring Monken to the Giants with him. Monken has interviewed for the Cleveland head coach opening, so time will tell. Let’s assume for the moment, though, that Monken is the Giants’ offensive coordinator next season. It’s instructive to compare the Ravens’ 2025 offensive tendencies to those that Dart experienced in his rookie year as a Giant:
Some of the salient points from this chart are:
- The Giants lined up under center only 28% of the time vs. the Ravens’ 42%. Both teams were among the leaders in lining up in pistol, which aids the running game. The Giants only used motion on 44% of plays vs. the Ravens’ 62%, while both teams used play action 36% of the time.
- Motion by itself doesn’t tell us everything – pre-snap motion is more effective in forcing defenses to reveal their intentions, i.e., man vs. zone. Here’s a mid-season diagram of pre-snap shifts/motion vs.play action use by all teams:
The Giants at this point were dead last in usage of pre-snap motion, while the Ravens were middle of the pack. Perhaps that was due to Dart’s inexperience, but whether Monken is the OC or someone else, we might expect to see more pre-snap motion next season.
- The Ravens were last in the NFL in usage of 11 personnel, while the Giants were middle of the pack. Ben McAdoo won’t want to hear it, but 11 is losing ground in NFL offenses and heavy sets are becoming more common. Both teams were middle of the pack, maybe a bit higher, in 12 personnel usage, which is the most versatile configuration an offense can run. Where the Ravens stood out is in their usage of 2-RB sets, which together accounted for 30% of their offensive snaps. Only the 49ers and Dolphins were in that same ballpark. If the Giants sign free agent fullback Patrick Ricard this offseason, you’ll know why.
Overall this season, the Ravens ran the ball 507 times and passed 422 times, while the Giants ran 511 times but passed 526 times.
What limits any attempt to infer how the Giants offense may change under John Harbaugh is that Dart is not Lamar Jackson. Dart entered the NFL a much more capable and experienced passer than Jackson did, but no one is Jackson’s equal as a runner in today’s NFL. Most likely, when Harbaugh watched Giants tape, he saw a quarterback hat was somewhere between 2018 and 2019 Jackson as a passer. He probably also saw an offensive line that, while greatly improved over past Giants offensive lines, was not exactly dynamic in run blocking the way the Ravens’ OL usually is. That could change if, say, free agent center Tyler Linderbaum decides he wants to follow Harbaugh to New York and/or if the Giants use the No. 5 draft pick on Miami right tackle Francis Mauigoa.
If that doesn’t happen, though, then whoever Harbaugh hires as offensive coordinator will conclude that the 2026 Giants offense cannot be like the Ravens offense of previous years. The challenge then becomes being flexible enough to recognize Dart’s unique talents and to maximize them rather than to try to develop him as if he’s Lamar-lite. The good thing is that Harbaugh did it once with Joe Flacco and a second time with Lamar, two very different QBs.
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