One of the primary talking points when it comes to the Los Angeles Rams playing the Chicago Bears on Sunday at Soldier Field is the weather. The Rams play in California while the Bears have played their last three home games in the cold. Matthew Stafford is 1-9 in cold, rainy, or snowy conditions since joining the Rams and his completion percentage drops when the temperature falls below 20 degrees.
It’s a talking point that’s more tired than than Matthew Stafford not being able to win the big game or win in the playoffs after he left Detroit. Stafford went on to win big games in 2021, including four in the playoffs. Stafford and the Lions were always the six seed and never got a home playoff game. Against the Cowboys in the lone opportunity that the Lions did have to win, controversial officiating played a role. Still, in two out of his three playoff games, Stafford threw for over 300 yards.
The cold weather narrative made sense when it was Jared Goff who grew up in California and never left the state. It doesn’t make sense, especially in the context of quarterback wins, when it comes to Stafford who played in the NFC North for the majority of his career.
For example, Stafford has played in three games under 40 degrees since joining the Rams. In two of those games, he threw for 300 yards, five total touchdowns, and one interception. The Rams lost those two games. Stafford threw for 110 yards with one touchdown and an interception in the third of those games and the Rams won 19-9.
In the two games that Stafford had a winning stat line, the Rams lost. In the game that Stafford wasn’t at his best, they won. It’s another example of why using quarterback wins as a stat is largely meaningless, especially without context.
On Sunday against the Bears, the temperature at kickoff is going to be under 20 degrees, with a chance of snow and winds over 10 miles per hour. Weather could certainly play a factor. However, Stafford’s throws have never had an issue cutting through the wind and precipitation.
| Game | Temperature | Stat line | Result | Spread | Notes |
| 2009 W13, DET (2-9) @ CIN (8-3) | 34/28 wind chill | 11/29, 143 yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 41.0 rtg | L, 23-13 | CIN -13.5 | |
| 2011 W17, DET (10-5) @ GB (14-1) | 31/19 wind chill | 36/59, 520 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 103.8 rtg | L, 45-41 | DET -6.5 | vs. Matt Flynn |
| 2012 W14, DET (4-8) @ GB (8-4) | 33/25 wind chill | 27/45, 264 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 74.7 rtg | L, 27-20 | GB -6.5 | |
| 2013 W14, DET (7-5) @ PHI (7-5) | 27/20 wind chill | 10/25, 151 yds, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 60.6 rtg | L, 34-20 | PHI -2 | Snow Bowl |
| 2014 W16, DET (10-4) @ CHI (5-9) | 36/27 wind chill | 22/39, 243 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 53.7 rtg | W, 20-14 | DET -10 | Stafford 4QC |
| 2014 W17, DET (11-4) @ GB (11-4) | 27/21 wind chill | 20/41, 217 yds, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 89.2 rtg | L, 30-20 | GB -7 | |
| 2015 W17, DET (6-9) @ CHI (6-9) | 31/20 wind chill | 28/39, 298 yds, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 119.4 rtg | W, 24-20 | DET -1 | |
| 2017 W9, DET (3-4) @ GB (4-3) | 35 degrees | 26/33, 361 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 132.4 rtg | W, 30-17 | DET -2.5 | vs. Brett Hundley |
| 2017 W11, DET (5-4) @ CHI (3-6) | 33 degrees | 21/31, 299 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 120.2 rtg | W, 27-24 | DET -3 | Stafford GWD |
| 2017 W16, DET (8-6) @ CIN (5-9) | 35 degrees | 19/35, 203 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 69.1 rtg | L, 26-17 | DET -3.5 | |
| 2017 WC, DET (9-7) @ SEA (10-5-1) | 38 degrees | 1/32, 205 yds, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 75.7rtg | L, 26-6 | SEA -8 | Playoffs |
| 2018 W10, DET (3-5) @ CHI (5-3) | 37 degrees | 25/42, 274 yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 74.9 rtg | L, 34-22 | CHI -7.5 | |
| 2018 W15, DET (5-8) @ BUF (4-9) | 39 degrees | 22/29, 208 yds, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 106.7 rtg | L, 14-13 | BUF -2.5 | |
| 2018 W17, DET (5-10) @ GB (6-8-1) | 26 degrees | 20/32, 266 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 109.6 rtg | W, 31-0 | GB -7.5 | vs. DeShone Kizer |
| 2020 W13, DET (4-7) @ CHI (5-6) | 35 degrees | 27/42, 402 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 109.4 rtg | W 34-30 | CHI -3 | Stafford GWD |
| 2021 W12, LAR (7-3) @ GB (8-3) | 37 degrees | 21/38, 302 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 96.6 rtg | L, 36-28 | LAR -2 | |
| 2024 W16, LAR (8-6) @ NYJ (4-10) | 23 degrees | 14/19, 110 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 83.2 rtg | W, 19-9 | LAR -3 | |
| 2024 DIV, LAR (11-7) @ PHI (15-3) | 34 degrees | 24/44, 324 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 97.2 rtg | L, 28-22 | PHI -6.5 | Playoffs |
All temperature data was taken from Pro Football Reference box scores. In games under 40 degrees, Stafford is 7-11. He’s been favored in eight of them and is 5-3. Stafford has also had a quarterback rating of 100 or more in seven games and is 5-2 in those games. Stafford is 3-3 in freezing conditions with 1,519 yards with 15 touchdowns and three interceptions.
The stat lines themselves outside of a few aren’t bad. Stafford has averaged 260.6 yards per game and has thrown 30 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. His worst games may have been against the Jets last year, against the Bears in 2018, the snow bowl against the Eagles, and his first cold-weather game. He’s also 4-1 against the Bears in these games.
It’s unlikely that the weather would be such a talking point if the Rams didn’t play in California. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum played college football at Notre Dame and Michigan. Braden Fiske finished at Florida State, but started at Western Michigan. Alaric Jackson in the Big Ten at Iowa. Davante Adams and Kevin Dotson started their careers in Green Bay and Pittsburgh. Poona Ford has played in Buffalo and Seattle.
They certainly won’t have the advantage of having more recent experience playing in these colder games. However, this also isn’t Miami where the sun only hits one sideline. Unless the Rams aren’t given heaters and jackets, both teams will be dealing with the cold equally. The Rams played in this type of game in a playoff atmosphere just one year ago.
There are aspects about the Bears that should concern the Rams. However, Matthew Stafford and his performance in cold weather shouldn’t be one of them. As long as Stafford is efficient and doesn’t turn the ball over in this game, the Rams will have a good shot.
