The Los Angeles Rams are set to play the Chicago Bears on Sunday in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs. While it should be a good matchup between two similarly skilled teams, it will also give the Rams an opportunity to right the wrongs of two of their losses this season.
While the Rams have lost five games this season, two of those losses have come while having significant leads at one point in the game. The Rams lost to the Philadelphia Eagles despite leading 26-7 in the third quarter. In Week 16, they lost to the Seattle Seahawks after leading 30-14 in the fourth quarter.
The Bears provide a unique challenge on Sunday in the sense that they have won a majority of their games this season coming from behind. Most recently, they beat the Green Bay Packers last week after trailing 21-3 at halftime. Caleb Williams tied Peyton Manning for the most fourth-quarter comebacks in a season by a player under the age of 25 with six.
- Trailed Raiders 24-19. Scored touchdown with 1:34 to play to lead 25-24. Raiders had 54-yard field goal blocked. Had 19.3% chance to win.
- Bears trailed Commanders 24-16 in fourth quarter. Commanders fumbled and Bears kicked game-winning field goal to win 25-24. Had 16.9% chance to win.
- Giants led Bears 20-10 with 4:00 left in fourth quarter. Went 0-for-5 on fourth down. Bears scored touchdown with 1:47 to play to win 24-20. Had 3.1% chance to win.
- Vikings took 17-16 lead over Bears with 50 seconds left. Bears kicked game-winning field goal to win 19-17. Had 24.9% chance to win.
- Trailed Packers 16-6 with five minutes left in fourth quarter. Bears recovered onside kick and tied the game. Packers went 0-for-5 in the red zone. Bears won in overtime, 22-16. Had 3% chance to win.
- Packers led 21-6 in the fourth quarter. Missed a late field goal and had three second-half three-and-outs. Bears scored with 1:08 left to win 31-27. Had 4.3% chance to win.
This season, the Bears have 12 wins and seven of them have come after trailing late in the fourth quarter. It’s not sustainable. At the same time, it’s something that they have regularly done this season. They are 8-3 in one-score games, but are just 1-3 in their last four after starting 6-0.
There’s a good chance the Rams storm out to a big lead and have to hang on late to win. In one sense, they should be battle-tested as they’ve been in those situations before and had to manage the lead. Conversely, they’ve also lost those types of games this season. Last week was the first game since Week 4 that the Rams had completed a fourth-quarter comeback. Compare the Rams’ collapses to the Bears’ comebacks, and there are certainly some common themes.
- Rams led Eagles 26-7. Offense had one three-and-out and one turnover on downs. Special teams had two blocked field goals late. Rams lost 33-26. Had 94.4% chance to win.
- After leading the Seahawks 30-14, special teams allowed a blocked punt and missed a field goal. The offense also went three-and-out three times in the fourth quarter. Had 98.5% chance to win.
When looking at the games in which the Bears mounted comebacks, there are some commonalities. The Raiders and Packers both missed field goals that would have won them the game or put them in a better position. In fact, the Packers lost seven points because of missed field goals in the Wild Card matchup. Much like the Rams against the Seahawks, the Packers offense went stale for a long stretch. Lastly, during the regular season game in Week 16, the Packers failed to recover an onside kick. They also went 0-for-5 in the red zone.
Special teams gaffes and the opposing offense going stale are major reasons for three of the Bears’ comebacks. Those two things happened in each of the Rams’ collapses this season. Offensively, the Rams have to be able to sustain drives if they get a big lead. The special teams also can’t make the back-breaking mistake as they almost did last week.
Defensively, the Rams just need to limit explosives that make coming back easier. Against the Seahawks, the defense allowed a 57-yard touchdown drive in two plays. Allowing a score is fine, but it has to take time off the clock. While two of the three Eagles touchdown drives in Week 3 took over six minutes off the clock, the first touchdown drive allowed back-to-back plays of 38 and 33 yards.
This season, the Bears rank second in fourth quarter EPA per play at 0.175. They have the fourth-most runs of 10 or more yards in the fourth quarter. This is an offense that has as many big plays rushing as throwing the ball in the fourth quarter when mounting a comeback.
Against the Commanders, Williams hit D’Andre Swift who scored a 55-yard touchdown. In the comeback against the Giants, Williams had two big scrambles and a 27-yard pass to Luther Burden. Williams hit Colston Loveland on back-to-back 20-yard passes in the comeback last week against the Packers. Later he hit Rome Odunze for 27 yards on 4th-and-8 and DJ Moore for a 25-yard touchdown. The Bears can find explosive plays when they need them.
They are able to flip a switch when they need to and catch a defense off-guard. The Bears rank 21st in first half offense EPA per play and 24th in first half success rate. They have the second-best offense in EPA per play in the second half of games.
If the Rams lose this game on Sunday, it’s going to be because they didn’t learn from previous losses this season in which they gave up a big lead. This postseason has been set up for the Rams to show how much they’ve grown throughout the season. During the Wild Card round, they overcame a Carolina Panthers team that they lost to in Week 13. Against the Bears, can they show that they can hold a big lead against a quality opponent?
