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Buffalo Bills (-1.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

WR Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 4.5 receptions (+123)

Washington has stepped up in a major way for the Jaguars offense down the stretch. Since Week 15, his PFF grade of 90.2 ranks second among all receivers, trailing only Puka Nacua. Over that span, Washington has led all Jaguars pass-catchers in target rate (25.4%), receptions (22) and yards per route run (3.28).

While the Bills rank fifth in the NFL in limiting receptions to wide receivers, that number is driven in part by opponents choosing to attack Buffalo on the ground, as it has faced the seventh-lowest pass-play rate (57.0%).

The underlying coverage profile is less impressive, with Buffalo ranking 20th in PFF coverage grade against receivers (33.8).

With Bills cornerback Maxwell Hairston (ankle) uncertain this week, the secondary could be short-handed, forcing Tre’Davious White, who has earned a PFF coverage grade of 65.1, into a larger role.

Given Washington’s inside-outside versatility, he profiles as a matchup problem across the formation.

TE George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers: Under 60.5 receiving yards (-120) 

Kittle returned in Week 18 from an ankle injury that briefly sidelined him and posted modest production against the Seahawks, totaling 29 yards on five receptions. He worked almost exclusively near the line of scrimmage, seeing mostly short targets, with his 4.0-yard average depth of target marking his second-lowest figure in a game this season and potentially signaling lingering effects from the injury.

Given his limited participation in practice, that appears to remain the case.

Generating production against the Eagles defense will be difficult, as Philadelphia has consistently smothered tight ends. The Eagles have limited the position to just 5.1 yards per coverage target this season, a mark that sits a full yard lower than any other team in the NFL.

Only two tight ends have topped 45 receiving yards against Philadelphia all season, and that is not due to weak competition. The list of opposing tight ends includes Brock Bowers (28 yards) and Colston Loveland (28 yards).