The Los Angeles Rams and Carolina Panthers have plenty of history. These used to be two NFC West rivals before division realignment. In the 2003-04 NFC Divisional Round, these two teams played one of the best playoff games ever that went to double overtime with the Panthers winning. Back in Week 13, the Panthers won despite being double-digit underdogs and that will once again be the case on Saturday. The Rams head into the postseason as potential favorites to make a Super Bowl run, but it will all start in Carolina. Let’s get into our five keys to victory.
1. Come out on top in the run game
It’s pretty clear that the Rams have to be able to come out on top in the run game against the Panthers, especially on defense. One of the few ways that the Panthers can win this game is if they are able to control the game on the ground and play on their own terms. That’s exactly what happened back in Week 13 when Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle combined for 35 carries for 141 yards. It was because of this that the Panthers controlled the game in the second half with 19:35 in time of possession. A big difference in this game will be Poona Ford being healthy and Quentin Lake returning to the lineup. With Ford on the field in Week 13, the Rams allowed 15 carries for 48 yards. On plays in which Ford was not on the field, the Panthers had 20 carries for 93 yards.
Now, the Rams didn’t run the ball poorly in the first meeting. Back in Week 13, they averaged 0.43 EPA per rush. Blake Corum and Kyren Williams had 153 yards rushing with a 70 percent success rate. The Rams need to remain efficient in the run game and that gets more difficult without Kevin Dotson. From Weeks 1-15, the Rams averaged 5.54 yards per carry running behind the right guard (Kevin Dotson) via PFF. From Weeks 16-18, the Rams have averaged 2.54 with Justin Dedich in that spot.
Dotson activates so much of what the Rams do in the run game. He is a top-six run-blocking offensive lineman in all of football. If this is a game that’s going to have rain, the Rams need to be able to run the ball and control the game on the ground. They need to do a better job of limiting the explosive runs which they have allowed in recent weeks. If the Panthers are able to have 38 minutes in time of possession and play the game on their terms, it gives them a chance.
2. Win high variance plays and limit explosives
In the first meeting between the Rams and Panthers, Carolina seemed to be hitting triple sevens on every single high variance play. It wasn’t just that the Panthers intercepted Matthew Stafford, they returned it for a touchdown. Their first score on offense came on a throw-away screen play on 3rd-and-8 that turned into a 35-yard touchdown. Bryce Young hit Jalen Coker for 33 yards for a touchdown on 4th-and-3 and then Tet McMillan on 4th-and-2 for a 43-yard score.
With the Rams driving in the red zone, a tipped ball resulted in a turnover on 3rd-and-6. On the final drive and in the red zone, Stafford fumbled and the Panthers recovered. Every single play that could have went the Panthers’ way in that game did. The Rams have to play better in high-leverage situations.
That also means limiting explosives. The Panthers have only 51 red zone plays this season which ranks inside the bottom-five in the NFL. They consistently score from outside the red zone. If the Rams are going to play a bend-but-don’t-break style of defense, they can’t allow the explosive touchdowns and must force field goals or turnovers. This is where Quentin Lake could come into play. From Weeks 1-11, the Rams ranked fifth in explosive play rate allowed. Since Week 12, they rank 15th. The Panthers had only three passes of 10 or more air yards in the first meeting and two of them went for touchdowns. Defensively, the Rams can’t allow those explosive plays.
3. Force Bryce Young to win over the middle
The Rams defense is the most vulnerable on the perimeter, especially against big, physical wide receivers. Unfortunately, the Panthers have one of the tallest receiving duos in the NFL with McMillan and Coker. This is a game in which the Rams are going to have to find a solution for Emmanuel Forbes. Cobie Durant and Ahkello Witherspoon have also struggled as of late. The Panthers will have the advantage on the perimeter which is where they won back in Week 13.
On passes over the middle, Bryce Young has completed 68 percent of his passes this season which ranks 21st in the NFL. He’s thrown one touchdown to four interceptions and his 79.2 passer rating ranks 37th in the NFL among quarterbacks with 25 such attempts. On passes outside is where Young can do damage. His 22 touchdowns to the outside rank ninth in the NFL. The Rams may struggle to get to Young in this game because the Panthers can match their power. If that ends up being the case, the Rams have to force Young into tight window throws over the middle.
4. Play a clean game
Much of the discussion about this game in terms of an upset isn’t necessarily about how the Panthers can win this game, but rather how the Rams can lose it. If the Panthers win this matchup, it will be because the Rams allow them to hang around much like they did the first time. This Rams team isn’t good enough defensively to overcome three turnovers again from the offense. Matthew Stafford needs to play a clean game as he has done the last few years. If this is going to be a game impacted by weather, Williams and Corum need to be extra mindful of holding on to the football.
If the Rams can play a clean game, they will win this game. They have the better roster and talent usually wins out. At the same time, this is a Rams team that has consistently found ways to lose all of their games this season that they should have won. They had a 94.4 percent chance to beat the Philadelphia Eagles and lost because of a blocked field goal. In Week 5, they had an 80.5 percent chance to beat the 49ers and lost because of a fumble at the goal line. They turned the ball over three times in losses to the Panthers and Falcons. Finally, it was a punt return and fourth-quarter collapse against the Seahawks that lost that game.
The Panthers have been double-digit underdogs twice this season and have won both games. They have a -69 point differential which is the fourth-worst in the NFL. The other three are the 2004 Rams, 2010 Seahawks, and 2011 Broncos. All three won their playoff games. This is a game that the Rams can and should win. They absolutely could still lose if they give the Panthers opportunities.
5. Take away the crowd early
This will be the first playoff game that the Panthers have hosted since their Super Bowl run in 2015. They are 5-2 all-time at home in the playoffs. Cam Newton will be at this game to bang the “Keep Pounding” drum pre-game and Bank of America Stadium has the sixth-largest capacity in the NFL. Despite the Panthers being 8-9 and not expected to win this game, that is a stadium that is going to be rocking early. The Rams need to be able to take that away early.
The Rams are the second-best first quarter team in the NFL this season while the Panthers rank 26th. If the Rams can go up by two scores early in this game, it will favor their game script. That will force Bryce Young to become a dropback passer and take away the crowd and the run game. In a playoff atmosphere on the road, the Rams can’t allow the crowd to become a factor and give the Panthers early momentum.
