- RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles: Barkley’s play quality declined this season.
- WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings: Jefferson could be aging out of the WR1 tier.
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Estimated Reading Time: 11minutes
The article below details four early-round landmines from the 2025 fantasy football draft season. NFL Weeks 1-17 and half-points-per-reception (half-PPR) are used as the de facto settings unless otherwise specified.
Eagles running back Saquon Barkley was drafted via an overall RB3, 1.03 average draft position (ADP). He finishes as the RB13. His 213.8 half-PPR points rank 20th among NFL skill position players. Barkley’s workload, play quality and offensive environment decreased in his 2025, age-28 season.
Barkley was listed with one knee injury and two groin injuries this season, though he suited up for each game in Weeks 1-17.
Barkley’s rushing data in Weeks 1-17, 2025 and Weeks 1-17, 2024:
| Saquon Barkley | Weeks 1-17, 2025 | Weeks 1-17, 2024 |
| PFF Rushing Grade | 76.7 | 85.6 |
| Att. – Yds. – TD | 280 – 1,140 – 7 | 345 – 2,005 – 13 |
| MTF/Rush Att. | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| Yards After Contact/Rush Att. | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Yards Rush Att. | 4.1 | 5.8 |
Philadelphia’s elite offensive line experienced poor health and decreased play quality as well, dropping from an 84.1 PFF run-blocking grade to a 75.9 PFF run-blocking grade during Weeks 1-17 the last two seasons. The Eagles’ offense produced 0.085 expected points added (EPA) per play during the same time span last year. It produced just 0.025 this year.
Barkley’s shrinking workload, decreased play quality and worsening offensive environment resulted in a failed season for a player typically drafted No. 3 overall.
Vikings No. 1 wide receiver Justin Jefferson was routinely drafted two picks after Barkley at the 1.05 spot, as the overall WR2. He finishes as the half-PPR WR28. His 145.1 half-PPR points rank 61st among NFL skill position players.
Jefferson unenviably earned targets from a Vikings quarterback room that grades out (48.2 PFF passing grade) as the worst unit among team-level NFL quarterback groups in Weeks 1-17.
While Minnesota’s quarterbacking contributed to Jefferson’s struggles, his per-play efficiency metrics may also hint at a decline in play quality. As detailed in “Exploring the framework of 2024’s WR1s” and “2024 Fantasy Football Season in Review: Wide Receivers,” youth (25 years old and under) is highly correlated with fantasy football WR1 production. Jefferson turned 26 years old in June 2025.
Although Jefferson’s 2025 target rate (24.8%) and average depth of target (aDot, 11.0 yards) compare similarly to his 2024 target rate (24.9%) and aDot (11.9 yards), his yards per route run (YPRR) average decreased from 2.61 to 1.80 and his catch rate decreased from 70.9% to 58.5%.
His catchable pass rate decreased from 95.2% to 90.5%, and the rate at which he was deemed open decreased slightly from 48.0% to 47.1%. His contested-catch rate notably decreased from 60.7% to 47.8%, though. Low-level effort, rather than waning talent, could be the issue.
Jefferson’s 2025 landmine performance will be thoroughly explored later this offseason.
Fantasy managers drafted Las Vegas Raiders first-round rookie running back Ashton Jeanty as the overall RB6 at the 1.10 spot this season. He finished as the RB14, scoring 206.7, finishing one spot behind Barkley among NFL skill position players overall. Despite spraining his left ankle in Week 12, he was active for all Raiders games.
In Weeks 1-17, Jeanty rushed 240 times for 888 rushing yards, five touchdowns and one fumble lost while catching 52-of-65 targets for 339 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
Jeanty’s rushing data among 38 NFL running backs with at least 130 rushing attempts in Weeks 1-17 and Jeanty’s receiving data among 27 NFL running backs with at least 35 targets in Weeks 1-17:
| NFL RB Rushing and Receiving | Ashton Jeanty |
| PFF Rushing Grade | 75.2 (No. 26) |
| MTF/Rush Att. | 0.24 (T-No. 4) |
| Yards After Contact/Rush Att. | 3.1 (T-No. 14) |
| Yards Rush Att. | 3.7(No. 33) |
| PFF Receiving Grade | 66.9 (No. 14) |
| Targets | 65 (No. 7) |
| Target Rate | 19.4% (No. 11) |
| Yards Per Route Run | 1.01 (No. 19) |
Jeanty’s productivity was hampered by a Raiders offensive line (61.5 PFF offense grade) that grades out as the fourth-worst unit among NFL offensive lines in Weeks 1-17 and a dreadfully inefficient, explosive, unimaginative and slow-paced offensive environment.
Jeanty, 22 years old, totaled the ninth-most touches (292) among NFL running backs while promisingly maintaining good health.
Jaguars No. 1 wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. was drafted via a WR8, 2.03 ADP and finished as the Weeks 1-18 WR43. Thomas’ 114.8 half-PPR points rank 96th among NFL skill position players in Weeks 1-18. He earned just a 66.7 PFF receiving grade this season after earning an 83.4 PFF receiving grade in 2024.
Thomas dealt with an early-season wrist injury, details on which were seemingly obfuscated by the team, a first-half-season shoulder injury, sensitive to touch, and a Week 9 high-ankle sprain that sidelined him until Week 13.
Thomas also struggled to adapt to new head coach Liam Coen’s centerfield passing attack after notching 2024 rookie season WR1 results, operating as a featured receiver along the boundary.
As the player and coach struggled to gel in Weeks 1-9, Thomas totaled 19 first-read targets thrown 10-plus yards downfield, outside the painted numbers, 2.38 per game, catching just seven for 123 scoreless receiving yards while finishing as the half-PPR WR39 (70.6 points).
Coen later featured Thomas along the boundary in five-of-six games from Weeks 13-18. Thomas totaled 16 qualifying first-read targets, 3.2 per game among those qualifying games, catching eight for 179 receiving yards and one touchdown, while producing three of his five-best weekly finishes as the WR13, WR23 and WR34 during that span.
Thomas’ late-season productivity signals a potential 2026 bounce back after 2025’s landmine.
