The Cincinnati Bengals don’t have any playoff hopes on the line against the Cleveland Browns. It is a real match of pride in Week 18 for the players on the field. Maybe they are even getting some plays on tape so they can find a team to sign them this offseason. We are fans, though, so what really matters is that draft pick.
The NFL draft order is determined by record, and then tiebreakers come down to things like strength of schedule (which we will refer to as SOS from here on out). There can be tiebreakers beyond that, but SOS takes care of most tiebreakers between teams with the same records. After all, we have seen the NFL pull out the old coin toss to determine a draft pick until around 2019, when they added many more tiebreakers.
But let’s get into where the Bengals could end up drafting.
Where do the Bengals currently pick?
Cincinnati is currently selecting at No. 9 if the draft order were to be determined last week. A top 10 selection is a nice consolation, but the odds of staying there are not great.
Right now, the Bengals are locked into a range between pick No. 8 and pick No. 12.
Who matters?
The teams that determine most of the movement we will be talking about today are the Kansas City Chiefs and the New Orleans Saints. Those are the other two teams at 6-10 going into Week 18.
- The Chiefs will be on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders (who could own the No. 1 pick with a loss)
- The Saints will be on the road against the Atlanta Falcons (who traded their first round pick to the Los Angeles Rams)
These seem like games that Kansas City and New Orleans are capable of winning. However, Cincinnati is also going to be at home facing the Cleveland Browns and is heavily favored.
How the Bengals pick No. 8
- The Bengals lose to the Browns
- The Saints defeat the Falcons
- The Chiefs defeat the Raiders
This outcome seems unlikely just from the fact that Cincinnati has a good shot of beating Cleveland, but the Browns have been known to sometimes have their number. The defense will also be playing hard to get Myles Garrett the single-season sack record.
New Orleans has won four straight and has been one of the hottest teams in the NFL after their terrible start. The real challenge will be Kansas City facing Las Vegas. It is essentially a tank off as both teams have shut down key starters for the year. The Raiders obviously have the most to lose by winning, as they currently control that first overall pick.
How the Bengals pick No. 12
- The Bengals defeat the Browns
- The Saints lose to the Falcons
- The Chiefs lose to the Raiders
Picking 12th isn’t a death sentence. It is still likely the team could land a quality player there. Cincinnati would have been able to land someone like tight end Tyler Warren or defensive tackle Walter Nolan with that pick last season
It’s on Cincinnati to find a player who can make a big impact early on instead of taking another multi-year developmental guy.
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