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Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) [Total: 40.5]

Game Overview

We get playoff football a little early in Pittsburgh, with this matchup the only true win-and-in game of the weekend. 

The Steelers beat the Ravens four weeks ago, jumping out to a 17–3 lead and holding on for a 27–22 victory despite a second-half push from Baltimore. That Week 14 matchup marked Aaron Rodgers’ most productive outing of the season, as he threw for 284 yards — more than half of which went to D.K. Metcalf. Pittsburgh made a clear effort to attack downfield through Metcalf early in that game, which makes his suspension for the regular-season finale especially consequential.

On the other side, it looks like Lamar Jackson will return from a one-game absence, but the Ravens will likely look to follow a similar path to victory as last week — letting Derrick Henry go to work. Henry’s 36 rushing attempts against Green Bay was more than any other player in a game this season. 

Pittsburgh has been a different run defense with rookie defensive tackle Derrick Harmon on the field. With Harmon healthy, the Steelers are allowing just 3.4 yards per carry on 138 designed runs — a figure that would rank best in the NFL. Without him (256 attempts), that number balloons to 4.5 yards per carry, which would rank 27th.

That trench advantage helps explain why the PFF model shows value on Pittsburgh as home underdogs at +3.5, creating a 4.6% edge. Historically, the Steelers have also thrived in this spot, covering the spread in each of their last six home games against the Ravens, including four outright wins.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 31.5 rushing yards (-114)

Since Week 10, Baltimore has allowed the third-fewest yards per carry of any defense in the NFL on designed runs. The Steelers will likely be forced to attack primarily through the air, and when they do run the ball, Jaylen Warren should be the first option. Warren has outcarried Gainwell 26-to-16 over the past two weeks. 

Gainwell will likely have a significant role in this game, but that’s more likely to happen as a receiver out of the backfield. Limited projected rushing volume and a difficult rushing matchup combine to show a 10%-plus edge on this under in the PFF Player Prop Tool.