There will be a lot on the line for the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18. It’s very possible that the Rams are playing for the fifth seed in the NFC and also have a chance at a top-10 pick depending on the Atlanta Falcons result. Here’s how each scenario for the Rams could play out this weekend.
1. How can the Rams get a top-10 pick?
- ATL (-3.5 vs. NO) Loss + CIN (-7.5 vs. CLE) Win + KC (-5.5 @ LVR) Win + MIA (+10.5 @ NE) Win = LAR get No. 9 pick
With a Falcons loss on Sunday against a Saints team that has won four straight games, the Rams could draft as high as ninth overall. Additionally, they can draft no lower than 12th overall with a Falcons loss. In the case that the Falcons do win, the Rams could draft as low as 14th.
Ideally, the Falcons lose and the Rams have a chance at a top-10 pick. Due to strength of schedule, the Rams would need each of the Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, and Miami Dolphins to win their games to get the ninth overall pick. A loss by any of those teams would simply move the Rams down one spot. Despite the Chiefs being without Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs should still beat the Raiders and the Bengals are favored against the Browns. However, the Falcons losing is more of a toss-up while the Patriots will be playing their starters as they push for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. If Vegas is right, the Rams will be picking 13th.
However, in the case that the Rams get the No. 9 pick, below is what that draft board could look like:
- No. 1 Overall: LVR select QB Fernando Mendoza
- No. 2 Overall: NYG select LB Arvell Reese
- No. 3 Overall: NYJ select QB Dante Moore
- No. 4 Overall: TEN select LB Rueben Bain
- No. 5 Overall: ARI select OT Spencer Fano
- No. 6 Overall: CLE select WR Carnell Tate
- No. 7 Overall: WAS select EDGE Keldric Faulk
- No. 8 Overall: NO select EDGE David Bailey
- No. 9 Overall: MIA select OT Francis Mauigoa
That would leave the Rams with their pick of wide receivers Jordyn Tyson or Makai Lemon. They could also take a safe pick with Caleb Downs at safety. A cornerback such as Mansoor Delane or Jermod McCoy could also be an option, as well as trading back and acquiring more picks. If the Rams can get the Titans or Giants to pick ahead of the Jets at No. 2 overall, it also opens up the possibility for the Rams to move up and take quarterback Dante Moore. A move from nine to two is much easier than 12 to two.
2. Get the No. 5 Seed
- LAR Win (-7.5 vs. ARI) + SEA Win (-1.5 @ SF) = LAR get No. 5 seed
- SEA Win + CAR (+3 @ TB) Win OR ATL Win = LAR to play CAR
- LAR Win + SEA Win + TB (-3 vs. CAR) Win + ATL Loss = LAR to play TB
It’s pretty obvious that playing the NFC South winner is the preferred option. Either the Panthers or Buccaneers will have the worst record in the NFC. If Vegas is right, the NFC South winner will have a losing record. While the Rams lost to the Panthers on the road already this season, it was a game played without Poona Ford. The Panthers had almost every major play go their way. They went 3-for-3 on fourth down, scored a defensive touchdown, and forced two turnovers with the Rams in scoring range.
That isn’t to say that the Panthers didn’t deserve to win, but a lot of things went right. The Rams should also have Quentin Lake back in this game, which should help the defense in some of the quick passing game that hurt them in the first meeting. The other option would be for the Rams to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That may be the better scenario as the Buccaneers have lost seven of their last eight games after starting 6-2. Simply put, the Buccaneers have been bad and this is a team that the Rams already blew out in primetime earlier this season. If things go according to Vegas, the Rams will have the fifth seed and head to Carolina.
The fifth seed is undoubtedly the best-case scenario for the Rams. In that case, the Rams would still have a realistic chance of hosting the NFC Championship game at SoFi Stadium as they did in 2021. A trip to the Super Bowl could include the Panthers in the Wild Card round followed by a trip to Chicago before ending at SoFi Stadium against the 49ers.
3. Get the No. 6 Seed
- LAR Loss (-7.5 vs. ARI)
- LAR Win + SF Win = LAR get No. 6 Seed
- CHI Loss + PHI Win (-4.5 vs. WAS) = LAR to play CHI
- CHI Win (-3 vs. DET) = LAR to play PHI
A worst-case scenario for the Rams would be for them to get the No. 6 seed and head to Philadelphia. While the Rams led the Eagles 26-7 earlier this season, this would be a repeat of last year’s divisional round matchup. The Eagles did lose three straight games between Weeks 12-14, but they have found their form on defense. Their offense has remained inconsistent, but may be able to do just enough against a Rams defense that struggled defending the Philadelphia wide receivers in the first matchup. If the 49ers win, this is the most likely scenario.
If the Rams do end up getting the No. 6 seed, ideally they would head to Chicago. While it would still be a cold weather game, it’s also a matchup that better suits the Rams. The Bears rank 26th in quarterback pressure rate this season on defense. As seen against the 49ers last week, that is a defense that is vulnerable. The Rams would be able to move the ball at will. The Bears offense provides its own challenges, but the Rams would also have the benefit of playoff experience over a team that hasn’t been there before. For this to happen, the Bears would need to lose to the Lions which is a toss-up. While the Eagles are resting starters, Tanner McKee led the Eagles to a win last season in Week 18.
As the sixth seed, the Rams would likely head to Philadelphia before heading to San Francisco for the divisional round. The NFC Championship would then result in a trip to Seattle or Chicago. For the Rams to host a playoff game, they would need the Green Bay Packers to find their form.
