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PFF Bets of the Week: NFL Week 18

The regular season finale is here, and PFF’s analysts have locked in their favorite bets of the week, powered by the PFF Player Prop Tool.


PFF Bets of the Week: NFL Week 18

PFF Bets of the Week: NFL Week 18

  • Get PFF+ for 30% off: Use promo code HOLIDAY30 to unlock the PFF Player Prop Tool, Premium Stats, fantasy dashboards, the PFF Mock Draft Simulator, industry-leading fantasy rankings and much more — everything you need to win your season.

The regular season finale is here, and PFF’s analysts have locked in their favorite bets of the week, powered by the PFF Player Prop Tool.

The tool delivers real-time projections, matchup data, hit rates and the best available odds all in one place. It’s the same level of insight trusted by all 32 NFL teams, now at your fingertips.

Here are our analysts’ favorite bets for the Week 18 Sunday slate. Their picks have gone 49-49-4 through 17 weeks.

Trevor Sikkema (9-8)

QB Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns: Over 0.5 passing touchdowns (-250 FanDuel)

Sanders has thrown at least one touchdown pass in each of his last seven games. While the Bengals defense has shown improvement recently, Cincinnati’s offense is top-10 in scoring over the past three weeks and has topped 30 points in four of its last five games. That game script should force Cleveland to keep pace through the air, giving Sanders ample opportunities to find the end zone as a passer.

Dalton Wasserman (9-8)

QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: Over 3.5 rush attempts (-150 Bet MGM)

Williams has logged at least four rushing attempts in 13 of his 16 starts this season, and with playoff seeding on the line, Ben Johnson has made it clear the Bears will be playing to win. Detroit’s defense runs the second-highest rate of man coverage in the NFL, a look that often creates scrambling opportunities for quarterbacks on pass plays. If this game turns into the shootout it profiles to be, Williams should be willing to lay it on the line — both as a runner and passer — to secure a win against his head coach’s former team.

Ben Linsey (12-5)

RB Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans: Under 67.5 rushing yards (-114 Draftkings)

I expect this line to rise as Sunday approaches, with Pollard shaping up as one of the more popular “contract incentive” narratives in Week 18. If that number does climb, the better value should come on the under closer to kickoff, which is how I plan to approach it.

Pollard needs just 66 rushing yards to cash a $250,000 incentive, but this sets up as a difficult spot. Tennessee enters as nearly two-touchdown underdogs against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs this season, a game script that makes sustained rushing volume hard to come by.

Mason Cameron (6-10-1)

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 2.5 receptions (+115)

With D.K. Metcalf suspended for the final two games of the regular season, Aaron Rodgers leaned heavily on Marquez Valdes-Scantling in Week 17, targeting the veteran wideout eight times. Valdes-Scantling tied for the team lead in routes run and paced all Steelers receivers with a 19.1% target rate. While his role in Pittsburgh has been limited overall, the longtime Rodgers target still separates at a high level, posting a 68% separation rate that ranks third among all NFL wide receivers this season.

The matchup also works in his favor. Baltimore has allowed the third-most receptions to receivers aligned out wide this year (146), where Valdes-Scantling does most of his damage. The Ravens are also one of just eight defenses to allow 150 or more open targets to wide receivers, setting up MVS with ample space to operate once again.

Max Chadwick (7-8-2)

RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: Over 4.5 receptions (+100 FanDuel)

Robinson has long been a weapon as a receiver out of Atlanta’s backfield, but his usage has spiked over the past few weeks, hauling in 20 receptions across his last three games. This matchup sets up well for another strong receiving performance. Robinson leads the NFL in target rate against the blitz, and New Orleans sends extra pass-rushers at the seventh-highest rate in the league, creating a natural funnel for checkdowns and designed touches in the passing game.

Gordon McGuinness (6-10-1)

RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers: Over 5.5 receptions (+132 FanDuel)

McCaffrey has cleared this number 10 times already this season, including a nine-catch performance on 10 targets against Seattle in Week 1. While only three of those overs have come in his past seven games, the matchup remains ideal — the Seahawks rank 32nd in the NFL against this prop. The only real concern is McCaffrey’s questionable status, but if he suits up, his role and target volume should be sufficient to push him over this line.

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Our blog is all about curating the best stories, insights, and updates on your favorite teams. Whether you’re a passionate fan or just love the game, SportSourcio is here to keep you connected with what’s happening on and off the field.

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