The Detroit Lions (8-8) and Chicago Bears (11-5) will square off in a Week 18 NFC North battle to close out the regular season. Because the Lions and Bears have already played this season, this week’s Honolulu Blueprint will look a bit different. Instead of starting from scratch, we will revisit the keys to victory from Week 2, examine what worked and what didn’t, then identify what the Lions need to adjust in Week 18.
If the Lions want to end their season on a positive note, they’ll need to follow the keys to victory laid out in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.
Bears’ base schemes
For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, make sure you check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions (from Week 2) Preview: Breaking down Bears’ offensive and defensive schemes.
Notable changes from Week 2
Lions coach Dan Campbell on how the Bears have changed since Week 2:
“They’re more polished. They’re a better team. Really, since that time, they have led the league in takeaways on defense. I mean, they’re getting them. It’s like we talk about, it’s contagious for them. Those guys are getting them in a good way. Got one the other night. Once again, it turned into a touchdown. And it’s much more sound. (Bears Defensive Coordinator Dennis Allen) D.A.’s got his system in, and it’s grown and developed. And they’re keeping teams out of the end zone, keeping the offense ahead; that’s what you’ve got to do on defense, get the takeaways. That’s big.
“And then offensively, they’re more polished. (Bears Head Coach) Ben (Johnson)’s done a good job. The system is in, and these little things that were there in Game 2, Game 1, they’ve begun to go away. They’ve got a run game. They’ve found a run game, play-action pass, (Bears QB) Caleb (Williams)’s playing really well, O-line’s playing really well. Got a run game, (Bears RB D’Andre) Swift’s running well. (Bears RB Kyle Monangai) 25, he’s a downhill, hard runner too. Tight end’s playing good, both of them – really all three of them. So, they’re playing at a high level. They’re doing things well. Much more polished.”
Key 1: Establish the rushing attack
Did it work?
Yes. After a dud in Week 1, the Lions rebounded with 177 rushing yards, including 94 from Jahmyr Gibbs on just 12 carries. Both Gibbs and David Montgomery scored touchdowns on the ground.
What’s changed?
The Lions’ rushing attack has fallen off a cliff, and they’ve run for just 153 yards in the past three games combined. Per Next Gen Stats, “Gibbs has gained negative rushing yards before contact in each game during the Lions’ current three-game losing streak.”
Hee’s Lions offensive coordinator John Morton with more on the Lions’ recent rushing struggles:
“Yeah, it’s been difficult because then you become a passing offense, which we can do that, but you don’t want to live on that. So, it’s been a work in progress… it’s always been a big emphasis every single week, the run game and trying to get it going. And sometimes you get behind the eight ball and you’ve got to throw it and sometimes you don’t get the right looks and sometimes we just aren’t executing. We all have our hand in all of this, so it’s just a little bit of everything. It’s frustrating, yeah it is. All you can do is just keep working and just try to improve.”
Adjustments?
The Lions need to get back to what’s worked for them in the past, and the Bears’ 28th-ranked DVOA run defense could be just what Detroit needs.
Here’s Morton on Chicago’s run defense:
“With Chicago, I think we can get after these guys a little bit, I really do. They’re giving up almost five yards a carry, so I like our chances there with this defense. So, I like the matchup here and I liked it the first game.”
Key 2: Improve OL communication
Did it work?
Yes. Like with the rushing attack, the Lions’ offensive communication was smooth and effective, providing the foundation for their early-season success.
What’s changed?
The offensive line has worn down. Taylor Decker’s season-long injury has taken its toll, Penei Sewell has been playing through an injury for the past month and a half, Christian Mahogany is still working back from injured reserve, Graham Glasgow has not played the past two weeks, and Tate Ratledge has hit the rookie wall.
Here’s Next Gen Stats on the Lions’ offensive line:
“With injuries to Taylor Decker, Christian Mahogany, Graham Glasgow, and Penei Sewell at different points in the year, the Lions have played eight different combinations on the offensive line at least 50 snaps (tied-3rd-most).”
Here’s Morton on the Lions’ recent offensive line struggles:
“Well, the number one thing you want is continuity. And when you don’t have that on the offensive line, that’s part of the problem. It isn’t all of the problem, it’s a little bit of everything, it really is. But it does start up front. If you can control the line of scrimmage and do that, it just makes everything a lot easier, which you guys have kind of done here in the last few years. But continuity is the biggest thing.”
Adjustments?
They need to dig deep and find a way to put it on the line for one more game.
Key 3: Separate and hit the target
Did it work?
Yes. Amon-Ra St. Brown led the team with nine receptions for 115 yards and three touchdowns, and his average separation was 2.3 yards per play. Jameson Williams reached 4.0 (two receptions for 108 yards), Brock Wright 4.1 (three for 28), Sam LaPorta 4.2 (three for 26), Jahmyr Gibbs 4.3 (three for 10), and David Montgomery 9.0 yards of separation (one for 4).
What’s changed?
Not much, this strategy is still very much a part of what the Lions do. The only real change is that the Lions are without their top two tight ends, Laporta and Wright, which has impacted the offense more than most originally thought.
Adjustments?
Take what there is against the Bears’ zone coverage scheme, try to stay in good down-and-distances, and continue to feed Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Key 4: Win on 3rd down
Did it work?
No. The Lions offense converted only four of 10 third-down attempts, though they were 1-for-1 on fourth down. On defense, things weren’t much better, as they allowed the Bears to convert seven of their 13 attempts (54%).
What’s changed?
Those results were close to the Lions’ season average on offense, as Detroit converts 38.3% of their third-down attempts, 20th in the NFL. Too often—especially of late—the Lions have gotten into third-and-longs and been unable to convert.
On defense, the Lions have been better this season, allowing teams to convert on fewer than 37% of their attempts, 11th-best in the NFL.
Adjustments?
Obviously, it’s easy to say that the Lions offense needs to get into better down-and-distance situations and be smarter with their play calling, but unfortunately, it appears to be who they are.
Key 5: Attack the run
Did it work?
No. The Bears ran the ball 27 times for 134 yards (5.0 ave.) despite trailing all game.
What’s changed?
The Bears’ rushing attack has gotten even stronger, while the Lions’ run defense has slowly declined. The Bears average 149.4 rushing yards per game, are No. 1 in the NFL in rushing success rate (48.6%), and have earned the fourth-best rushing DVOA ranking. The Bears rush outside the tackles nearly 60% of the time (third-most in the NFL) and have leaned into that approach because of their success.
Here’s Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard on the Bears’ rushing attack:
“I see a player (D’Andre Swift) that’s determined to run hard. He’s running behind his pads right now. I think Swift’s got this ‘stigma’ of this shifty, elusive running back, and people forgot how strong this player is. What I see is a two-headed monster over there, him and (Bears RB) Kyle (Monangai), the rookie that’s doing a phenomenal job out of Rutgers. Like these guys are running behind their pads, they have a very sound system where they’re going to try to attack you week-to-week. The run game changes week-to-week, and you see it. It’s a very gameplan-specific, oriented offense in totality.”
Adjustments?
The Lions will need to commit more players to stopping the run—especially on the edges—and force Bears quarterback Caleb Williams to beat them. Williams continues to struggle with his accuracy and is still prone to missing open receivers (Williams’ 57.9% completion percentage is a league low), so it’s worth the gamble for Detroit.
Key 6: Contain and squeeze
Did it work?
Yes and no. The Lions did a nice job containing Williams on designed runs, but he did still manage to rush for 27 yards on scrambles. The Lions also generated pressure on 43.2% of defensive snaps, and sacked Williams four times—the most he’s been sacked this season.
What’s changed?
As it turns out, this was the first real sign the Lions had figured out how to contain mobile quarterbacks, and that has been something they’ve hung their hat on this season. Here’s how quarterbacks have run on the Lions this season:
- Lamar Jackson: 7 carries for 35 yards
- Patrick Mahomes: 10 for 32
- Jalen Hurts: 10 for 31
- Caleb Williams: 5 for 27
- Marcus Mariota: 5 for 22
- Dak Prescott: 3 for 14
- Jameis Winston: 4 for 13
- J.J. McCarthy: 9 for 12
- Jordan Love 8 for 8 (two games combined)
Adjustments?
The Lions need to stay the course. Williams has averaged 4.75 rushing attempts for just over 24 yards per game, which closely mirrors what we saw in Week 2. However, that doesn’t mean the Lions can let up, because Williams has the skills to chew up yards on the ground if you leave him time and allow him to escape. Williams has reached 20+ miles per hour on five scrambles this season, equal to all other NFL quarterbacks on the season combined.
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