Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio, is the best-selling author of “Booked: The True Life Story of the PhillyGodfather,”and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.
Washington Commanders (4-12) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) at 4:25 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Eagles minus-3.5/Total: 39
What is the line telling you:
The Commanders head to Philly this weekend as 3.5–4-point underdogs against the defending world champs, with the total set at 39. On paper, this looks like one of those end-of-season games where neither team has much to play for, and that’s exactly what creates chaos for bettors. You’re dealing with elevated variance, limited motivation, and incomplete information—never a comfortable spot when you’re trying to beat a Vegas number.
Both teams are banged up heading into this matchup, and with key starters expected to sit, the traditional power ratings and season-long metrics don’t carry the same weight. That forces us to adjust our approach. In games like this, the edge isn’t found in the logo on the helmet—it’s found in the individual players who are getting an unexpected opportunity and have something to prove. This is very similar to how we attack the NFL preseason market: identify motivation, matchups, and health, then pick our spots carefully.
Now, let’s not completely dismiss the big picture. The Birds can still lock up the No. 2 seed heading into the playoffs with a win and a Bears loss. That may not matter on paper, but late in the fourth quarter—inside Lincoln Financial Field, with a home crowd that never takes its foot off the gas—it absolutely matters. Philly fans don’t care who’s starting or who’s resting; they expect effort, toughness, and a win.
Bottom line:
That’s why we would rather invest a small amount of money backing Tanner McKee over Josh Johnson. McKee is playing for more than just this game—he’s auditioning for a future role in this league, and quarterbacks in that position tend to play loose, aggressive football. If this game is close late, that slight incentive of grabbing the No. 2 seed, combined with McKee’s motivation, could be the difference between cashing or tearing up a ticket. Another box that favors Philly: the Eagles currently hold a +15 health advantage in pass defense. Even with backups on the field, that depth matters, especially against a Commanders offense that’s struggled to protect the quarterback. It’s another reason I’m leaning Eagles on the moneyline rather than getting cute with the spread.
With Nick Sirianni confirming that multiple starters will be rested, the market has already reacted aggressively. We’ve seen the line drop a full five points from the opening number of Eagles -8.5, and in my opinion, this isn’t done yet. Sharp money is waiting. Be patient. If and when this number hits Eagles -3, that’s your cue to step in and make a small investment on the Eagles moneyline around -150.
Sometimes the best bets aren’t about dominance, they’re about depth, motivation, and culture. And in Philly, culture still means something.
Prop bets for the game:
Tanner McKee — 1+ TD
Josh Johnson — Over 1 TD
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
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