The New York Giants currently hold the second overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft after their victory over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 17. But perhaps the Giants would hold the first overall pick in some other universe.
Perhaps one where Mike Kafka benched as many of his starters as he could and had Devin Singletary run the Single Wing offense. Or perhaps that Bobby Okereke didn’t pick off Geno Smith and those Las Vegas Raiders went on a roll after scoring a touchdown.
But we didn’t go down that leg of the trousers of time (to borrow a turn of phrase from Sir Terry Pratchett).
That eventual outcome – holding the first overall pick – isn’t completely closed off to the Giants. In fact, there are a whole host of scenarios still open to the Giants, and they could be picking pretty much anywhere from first to seventh overall. We won’t game out every possible outcome, but there are three that seem most likely at this moment: Drafting second overall, drafting first overall, and drafting seventh overall.
Thanks to the Atlanta Falcons’ upset victory over the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football, the New York Jets are unable to secure the first pick. The first overall pick will belong to either the Raiders or the Giants.
Before we get to the three most likely scenarios, let’s take a quick look at the draft order after Week 17.
2026 NFL Draft order before Week 18
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-14) – vs. Kansas City Chiefs (6-10)
- New York Giants (3-13) – vs. Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1)
- New York Jets (3-13) – vs. Buffalo Bills (11-5)
- Tennessee Titans (3-13) – vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
- Arizona Cardinals (3-13) – vs. Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
- Cleveland Browns (4-12) – vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)
- Washington Commanders (4-12) – vs. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
- New Orleans Saints (6-10) – vs. Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-10) – vs. Las Vegas Raiders (2-14)
- Cincinnati Bengals (6-10) – vs. Cleveland Browns (4-12)
Scenario 1: Giants pick No. 2
In this scenario, the Giants fall to the Cowboys in the season finale, while the Raiders lose to the Chiefs. The Giants would be a 3-win team, one more than the Raiders, and control the second overall pick regardless of what happens to the other teams thanks to the strength of schedule tiebreaker.
This is a “bad news, good news” situation.
The bad news is that the Giants wouldn’t be able to auction off the first overall pick, and one of the most quarterback-needy teams would control that pick. Getting a haul in a trade down scenario wouldn’t be as likely, though not impossible.
This is the good news.
Edge defenders Reuben Bane (Miami) and Arvell Reese (Ohio State) are generally considered to be two of the top three non-quarterbacks in the draft. The Giants would be unlikely to consider either at second overall considering the presence of Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and Abdul Carter on their roster. But that doesn’t mean another team wouldn’t covet those players.
It’s also possible that a team could covet Ohio State safety Caleb Downs, though only two safeties have been drafted in the Top 5 in recent memory. Those safeties are Sean Taylor and Eric Berry, both of whom were drafted at fifth overall.
If the Giants evaluate Downs – or a player like LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane, Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, or Utah OT Spencer Fano – as worth the second overall pick, they could draft that player if a trade doesn’t materialize.
But wait, there’s more!
We don’t yet know (at least as of this writing) whether other underclassmen quarterbacks like Dante Moore (Oregon) or Ty Simpson (Alabama) will declare for the draft. If one quarterback besides Fernando Mendoza declares, it’s possible that a trade scenario could develop for the Giants. The Jets have five first round picks between 2026 and 2027, while the Cleveland Browns hold a pair of first round picks this year. The Jets are in desperate need of a quarterback, while the Browns may be in the market for one if Kevin Stefanski is fired or he doesn’t believe that Shedeur Sanders is his future.
Controlling the second pick isn’t as desirable as the first pick, but the Giants could still have plenty of options.
Scenario 2: Giants pick No. 1
As ESPN Analytics suggests, it’s unlikely that the Giants will be drafting first overall – but not impossible.
In order to secure the first overall pick, the Giants will need to lose to the Cowboys and finish 3-13, while the Raiders will need to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s a relatively unlikely scenario, but considering the Chiefs are reeling, there’s still a real chance of it happening.
In this case, the Giants would control the first pick thanks to the strength of schedule tiebreaker, and would have the keys to the draft. As mentioned above, the Jets are desperate for a quarterback and have the assets to trade a king’s ransom for the first overall pick. They’d be behind the Raiders in the draft order and would need to pay up to secure “Their Guy”.
Of course, the biggest return would also likely mean that this needs to be a “one quarterback” draft. If a second or third quarterback with a first round grade declares, the asking price for the first overall pick could drop due to supply and demand.
Scenario 3: Giants fall all the way to No. 7
This is the nightmare scenario – at least from a draft perspective – in which the Giants beat the Cowboys while the Jets, Titans, Cardinals, Browns, and Commanders all lose their respective games. Personally, I feel that it’s more likely that all of those teams lose than any of them win. The only one not playing a playoff team is the Browns, but they get to see a white-hot Bengals offense.
In that case, the Giants’ strength of schedule advantage evaporates and they drop out of the top five altogether.
In this scenario, the Giants have a much more “straight up” draft. As per usual, they would evaluate the players at the top of the draft and evaluate which ones they think would fit the value of a Top 10 pick while also fitting their needs. In this case, the Giants likely start hoping both Moore and Simpson declare and three quarterbacks go in the top five. That could push players like Downs or Reese to them, or at least push them lower and push other potential top five talents down to them.
Of course, a trade could still be on the table if the right player is available at seven that a team outside the Top 10 covets. That, of course, is more difficult to predict than a quarterback trade, and those seldom bring the same kind of return.
Final thoughts
Did the Giants fumble the bag when they beat the Raiders?
Maybe.
It’s probably better to say that they probably lost the opportunity to turn a high pick into multiple lower picks and add (relatively) highly-drafted players at multiple positions. That is still on the table and the Giants could still be in a good position for that strategy, even if they can’t extract maximum value.
But it also isn’t as though the “nightmare scenario” is really any kind of disaster.
The big difference between the Giants down the stretch in 2025 and 2024 is that the Giants now have their quarterback. That’s the common theme running through all the trade scenarios: auctioning off a high pick to a quarterback-needy team. The Giants are now in the position of having their quarterback in Jaxson Dart and are transitioning to building around him, as opposed to trying to find the foundation for their team.
They can still do that without a truckload of draft picks, and they’ll still get a good player in the Top 10 of the first and second round. The biggest aspect of potentially being unable to work a trade is not having a third-round pick after using this year’s in their trade for Dart. The Giants could certainly use both Day 2 picks, and they should try to maneuver to pick up additional Day 2 picks if at all possible.
However, Dart’s presence (as well as Malik Nabers, Andrew Thomas, Brian Burns, Abdul Carter, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Dexter Lawrence, Cam Skattebo, and Tyrone Tracy among others) puts them in position to turn around quickly with the right coaching hire. And that’s worth more than a single first-rounder.
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