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Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons [Total: 49.5]

Game Overview

The Rams are positioned as the No. 5 seed but can swing as high as the No. 1 seed in the NFC or as low as the final wild-card slot. With games looming against a pair of teams with losing records in the Falcons and Cardinals, the likelihood of falling further in the standings is low. However, winning won’t be enough to propel Los Angeles to an NFC West title; the Rams will likely need some help along the way, namely losses by the Seahawks and 49ers.

But the Falcons won’t lay down for the Rams in this one. As the underdogs this season, the Falcons are 6-2 against the spread. Much of that success has come on the road, though, as their record as home underdogs stands at just 1-2.

Conversely, the Rams have been one of the most profitable teams in the NFL when favored on the road (5-1 against the spread) and when laying seven or more points (4-2 against the spread).

PFF betting analyst Ben Linsey highlighted this contest as his favorite game market bet of Week 17. Linsey explained how Kirk Cousins may struggle against a Rams pass rush that ranks in the top five in pressure rate over the past five games. 

Cousins has been particularly sensitive to pressure this season, posting a 40% completion rate and generating positive EPA on just 25.7% of dropbacks in such situations, leading Linsey to lean on the side of the Rams as 7.5-point favorites. 

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RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: Over 4.5 receptions (-115)

Robinson is one of the most explosive players in the game, leading the Falcons to get him the ball by any means necessary. He ranks second among backs in targets per game this season, setting up what should be a high-volume receiving performance against a Rams defense that has surrendered the second-most running back receptions over the back half of the season.  

Faced with an explosive Rams offense that ranks atop the league in touchdown drive percentage (35.6%), the Falcons are projected as more than touchdown underdogs. The expectation that Atlanta will be playing from behind opens the opportunity for Robinson to see ample targets. When trailing by three or more points with Kirk Cousins under center, Robinson has seen a target on 25.9% of his routes. 

Cousins has utilized Robinson (87.2 PFF receiving grade) frequently in the passing game over the past five games. Since Week 12, the Falcons back has racked up the second-most targets at the position (32) and has surpassed this receptions line in three out of five contests.

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