The Los Angeles Rams are currently on pace to tie the most wins in a single season during the Sean McVay era. If the Rams win out and beat the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals, they will finish the season 13-4. Despite that, it is very possible that they don’t play a single home game in the playoffs and there is an argument to be made that they could be 15-2.
With the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers winning in Week 17, the Rams cannot repeat as NFC West champions and they cannot get a bye week and the No. 1 seed. Within the last month, the Rams blew a 16-point fourth quarter lead to the Seahawks and were the only NFC West team this season, including the Arizona Cardinals, to not beat the Carolina Panthers.
Instead of playing at SoFi Stadium where the Rams are 6-1 this season, they very likely will have to win three consecutive road games to make the Super Bowl. This is the bed that the Rams have made and now they have to lay in it.
It’s a similar bed that they made in 2020 when they had the No. 1 overall defense. In 2020, the Rams found ways to lose to the 0-13 New York Jets and a 49ers team led by Nick Mullens. This season, the Rams found ways to lose to a Mac Jones-led 49ers team and the Panthers. What if the Rams had been the No. 3 seed in 2020? Instead of traveling to Lambeau Field in the divisional round, the Rams may have played in New Orleans against a Saints team hanging on to the end of an era. Had they won that, they could have hosted a Buccaneers team that they beat earlier in the year in the NFC Championship game.
As one of my favorite athletes of all-time, Rafael Nadal said, “If, if, if…doesn’t exist.”
However, it’s those seasons that are looked back on and seen as years that got away. The Rams arguably had a Super Bowl-winning roster in 2020, but a quarterback that wasn’t ready and an untimely injury to Aaron Donald held them back.
In 1978, the Rams went 12-4 and were the No. 1 seed. In the NFC Championship, they hosted the Dallas Cowboys, a team they beat earlier in the season. The tRams lost 28-0. Since DVOA was introduced in 1978, that team ranks fifth and has the second-best defense.
The Rams lost to the Minnesota Vikings in 1976 in the NFC Championship after going 10-3-1. That game was played under 20 degrees. In 1974, the Rams had to travel to Minnesota for the NFC Championship. After seven penalties, three lost fumbles, and two interceptions, the Rams lost 14-10 to a team they had beaten in the regular season. More recently, the 2020 season certainly comes to mind as one that got away, in addition to the 2003 season.
While the Rams may not win the division or get the NFC’s No. 1 seed, they aren’t going to simply wave the white flag. At the same time, it’s hard not to have the feeling that this season is going down that same road. The Rams currently have a total DVOA of 43.3 percent. That would make them the best Rams team in the DVOA era.
Still, the Rams haven’t shown the ability to consistently win close games which Super Bowl teams tend to do. The Rams are 4-4 in one-score games this season, including 0-3 in one-score games on the road.
The narratives that the Rams can’t win a cold weather game will only get louder. There’s a realistic chance that the Rams would have to play in Carolina, Philadelphia, and Seattle all back-to-back-to-back. That doesn’t even include a potential trip to Chicago. All of those places could be impacted by weather. And most certainly all of them would be close.
During the Sean McVay era, the Rams are 5-9 in games played under 45 degrees. Just two of those wins came against teams with a winning record. Against teams with a .500 record or better, the Rams are 2-8.
This Rams team may be more built to win those games with their current physical style. Since the bye week, the Rams have had no issues getting into heavier personnel and forcing teams to match them physically. During that stretch, they are one of the best running teams and they have been much better at stopping the run than they were last year.
Additionally, playing in games impacted by weather could help negate their biggest weaknesses in the secondary. At the same time, this isn’t a team that has shown that they can consistently win in those types of games. The Rams may need to win three cold weather games which is as many as they’ve won since 2020. They have yet to win a one-score game on the road this season.
This isn’t to be ‘doom and gloom’ and have the mindset that the Rams don’t have a shot at making the Super Bowl. However, the path to the Super Bowl certainly got more difficult. There is a chance that we look back on this season as the best Rams team not to make the Super Bowl and as a season that got away.
