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Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3) [Total: 52.5]

Game Overview

The No. 1 seed in the NFC could very well be decided by which franchise claims victory in this contest.

The Bears already clinched the team’s first NFC North crown since 2018 due to the Packers’ loss on Saturday. It represents a massive leap after the team’s early-season struggles, with their odds to win the division seated at +3200 following an 0-2 start to the year.

However, the job doesn’t stop with a division title, as the Bears eye the top seed in the conference. That road starts with winning their final two games of the regular season (at 49ers, vs. Lions), as well as needing the Seahawks to falter down the stretch.

For San Francisco, the path to both the NFC West title and the No. 1 seed is the same: win. Along with this bout, the 49ers close out the regular season with a home matchup against the current No. 1 seed Seahawks. Toppling both would put the 49ers in the driver’s seat for the top spot in the division and conference, also sending the division-rival Rams and Seahawks on the road for Wild Card Weekend. 

With the game total set at a lofty 52.5 points, oddsmakers expect no shortage of points in this contest. It’s an understandable projection, given this duel features two of the best offensive play-callers in the league in Ben Johnson and Kyle Shanahan. 

However, with both George Kittle (ankle; questionable) and Rome Odunze (foot; out) absent from practice all week, both offenses may be without their top pass-catchers. That may make it hard for the over to hit, with the PFF simulation model projecting a 58.8% probability on the under, equating to a 6.5% expected value.  

Explore Top Player Props

RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers: Over 5.5 receptions (+118)

With George Kittle in danger of missing this game due to injury, the expectation would be for the 49ers‘ passing game to flow through Christian McCaffrey. The talented back has racked up a team-high 51 receptions without Kittle on the field this season — more than double that of any other 49ers pass-catcher. McCaffrey has seen a target on over 27.2% of his routes run, standing as the only player to chart above 20%. 

From a per-game standpoint, that level of volume has equated to McCaffrey recording 7.5 receptions on average and eclipsing this line in all six games that Kittle either missed or played fewer than 50% of the offensive snaps.