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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.

Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the markets most suited to a given thesis or angle.

Trevor Lawrence is in a good spot vs. hampered Colts secondary

One of the effects PFF has studied is coverage as a weak-link system, where a single mistake can significantly undermine a defense’s ability to limit passing-game success.

Shown here is the distribution of perfectly covered plays versus those with a coverage breakdown, along with the long tail of offensive success that follows when a mistake occurs.

Turning to this matchup, the Colts have struggled to generate perfect coverage throughout the season, particularly in recent weeks. Injuries in the secondary have left Indianapolis with one of the weakest coverage units in the NFL, as it has forced the fewest perfectly covered plays over that span.

Trevor Lawrence has faced an average rate of perfect coverage this season, but when plays do break down, he has graded as one of the league’s best quarterbacks, ranking in the second tier with the sixth-best PFF grade.

With the base rate of coverage mistakes likely to increase against this secondary, Lawrence should see more opportunities to hit his ceiling outcomes. When paired with the aggressive downfield approach this offense has adopted since the arrival of Jakobi Meyers, this shapes up as a spot to be bullish on the Jaguars, with Lawrence overs, Jacksonville alternate lines and same-game parlays standing out as intriguing options.

Joe Burrow should put up numbers against a poor Cardinals pass rush

Continuing the weak-link theme, PFF has also studied the offensive line as a weak-link system and the importance of each lineman executing his assignment to sustain offensive success. While that principle holds true league-wide, certain quarterbacks are better equipped to mitigate its effects based on their traits and play style.

In other words, some quarterbacks are more sensitive to breakdowns up front than others.

Joe Burrow falls firmly into that category. He owns one of the best marks in EPA when his protection holds up, but also one of the worst when even a single blocker makes a mistake.

This matchup against the Cardinals sets up favorably, as Arizona ranks near the bottom of the league in virtually every pressure metric and has forced the fewest blocking mistakes of any defense this season.

Burrow should be positioned to operate efficiently in this spot, making the Bengals, his passing props and related same-game parlays appealing options.