Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio, is the best-selling author of “Booked: The True Life Story of the PhillyGodfather,”and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.
Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (11-4) at 4:25 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Bills minus-1.5/Total: 44
What is the line telling you:
The Vegas line on this matchup originally opened with the Buffalo Bills as a -3 home favorite, with the total set at 44.5. Since then, we’ve seen a 1.5-point adjustment in the market on the side. The current price has the Bills as short -1.5 home favorites at most sportsbooks, and I’ve even seen this line as low as pick’em (-120). The total has also dropped by a half point, now sitting at 44. Early betting splits from both U.S. and offshore markets show the Bills receiving roughly 60% of the early public money. That should concern anyone looking to back Buffalo this week, as the point spread has moved against them. This is known as reverse line movement, a classic indicator that sharp money is coming in on the Eagles early in the week.
When handicapping this game, the first thing to examine is overall team health heading into Sunday. Once again, the Eagles are the healthier team, holding a +4 health advantage. The biggest liability for the Bills is in their pass defense, where Philadelphia owns a substantial +10 health-score advantage. That suggests Jalen Hurts should be in a position to put up strong passing numbers this week.
The early weather forecast calls for some rain, but temperatures should be around 40 degrees at kickoff, with light winds of only 5 MPH—conditions that shouldn’t drastically affect the passing game.
Next, we look at the situational spot. A 10–5 Eagles team traveling on the road to face an 11–5 Bills team as short +1.5 underdogs tells us that on a neutral field, Philadelphia would likely be favored. Additionally, the Eagles’ overall DVOA is trending upward heading into the weekend.
Another concern for anyone looking to invest in Buffalo is Josh Allen’s health. He’ll be playing banged up, and his history against Philadelphia—even when healthy—has not been good. Allen has faced the Eagles twice in his career, losing both games and failing to cover the spread in each. In those matchups, Philadelphia outperformed the Vegas number by nearly 10 points on average. Notably, the Eagles are the only NFL team Allen has never beaten.
The Bills are clearly superior running the football, ranking 2nd in yards per rush attempt, while the Eagles rank 22nd. Buffalo also holds the edge in the passing game, ranking 4th in yards per pass attempt, compared to 11th for Philadelphia. Overall, the Bills rank 6th in yards per play, while the Eagles come in at 16th.
Against the run, both defenses rank near the bottom of the league. The Eagles are 21st in opponent yards per rush attempt, while the Bills rank 31st. However, both pass defenses are elite, with the Eagles ranked 4th and the Bills 8th in opponent yards per pass attempt.
Overall defensive efficiency favors Philadelphia, as the Eagles rank 8th in opponent yards per play, compared to 21st for Buffalo. Both teams rank in the top 10 in turnover differential, though surprisingly, the Bills defense has recorded two more takeaways on the season. Good news for the Eagles: Jalen Carter is returning, and Lane Johnson will be in the lineup. Nakobe Dean and Landon Dickerson are also trending toward playing. One key situation to monitor is A.J. Brown, who recently had his wisdom teeth removed. If he can’t go, it’s a significant loss for an Eagles offense that has struggled for most of the season, ranking 23rd in points per game. That average drops even further when you remove the 31 and 29 points they scored against the two worst defenses in the league over the past two weeks (Raiders and Commanders).
Bottom line:
This game feels like a true coin flip, and the team that has the ball last will likely win. With such a short point spread, kickers could play a major role in the final outcome. Given the way Jake Elliott has been playing, it’s not easy for me to back the Eagles on the road in Buffalo in this spot, but the Eagles are the healthier team and have some key guys coming back this week. Hopefully Elliot doesn’t lose the game for them. We like the Eagles here +1.5.
Prop bets for the game:
James Cook over 80 rushing yards (-150)
Saquon Barkley over 80 rushing yards (-130)
Saquon Barkley anytime TD (+100)
Dallas Goedert anytime TD (+235)
James Cook anytime TD (+100)
Khalil Shakir anytime TD (+240)
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
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