The Los Angeles Rams will be coming off of an 11-day break in Week 17 when they play the Atlanta Falcons. After blowing a 16-point fourth quarter lead in Week 16 against the Seattle Seahawks, a break was much needed for the Rams as they self-reflect before heading into the playoffs. The Falcons may not have anything to play for, but the Rams will get their best swing on Monday Night Football. Here are this week’s keys to victory.
1. Lean on the run game
The Rams have been one of the best running teams in the NFL over the past month and it should be something that they can lean into against the Falcons. This is a clear strength of the Rams against a clear weakness for the Falcons. The Falcons have allowed 0.02 EPA per rush this season which ranks 27th in the NFL and their 128.2 rushing yards allowed per game is the eighth-most.
Meanwhile, since Week 13, the Rams rank third in yards per carry with a league-high 68.8 percent success rate. The Rams have found a combination that works with Blake Corum and Kyren Williams. With Davante Adams likely out once again, the Rams should be able to lean on the run game early and often against a susceptible Falcons defense.
2. Capitalize in the red zone
Without Adams, the Rams very clearly missed him in the red zone last week against the Seahawks. They were 3-for-6 in the red zone last week and will be going up against another solid red zone defense. Rams fans shouldn’t be too surprised to know that the Falcons have a bend but don’t break philosophy on defense under Raheem Morris. The ethos is to make the offense work hard to get down the field and then lock down in the red zone.
This season, the Falcons have the 13th0best red zone defense, allowing touchdowns at a rate of 55.6 percent. It’s been 11 days since the Rams last took the field and need to come out ready to go. This is a spot where leaning on the run game should help. The Rams need to find a Plan B to Adams in the red zone and two running backs who lead the NFL with nine combined touchdowns over the past four weeks makes sense.
3. Tackle Bijan Robinson
For the most part, the Rams have done a good job when it comes to tackling and containing opposing running backs. With that said, they gave up a 55-yard touchdown run to Kenneth Walker last week. Over the past month, they’ve also struggled when it comes to tackling more than they did in the early portion of the season. Both of the Rams’ linebackers rank inside the bottom-15 in missed tackle rate over the last month. That needs to change going forward and especially in this game.
The Rams struggled tackling Walker last week who ranked fourth in missed tackle rate. Right behind him at fifth in Bijan Robinson. Robinson forces 0.24 missed tackles per rushing attempt. His 2.75 yards after contact ranks third. The Falcons lean on Robinson as the engine of their offense, especially with Kirk Cousins at quarterback. The Falcons are 5-3 this season when Robinson has over 4.5 yards per carry. If the Rams are going to stop the Falcons offense, it starts with Robinson.
4. Make Kirk Cousins Uncomfortable
Despite being two years removed from a torn Achilles, Kirk Cousins has actually done well this season under pressure and against the blitz. Cousins’ 0.16 EPA per dropback against the blitz is the seventh best while his -0.29 EPA per dropback against pressure is the 10th-best. However, he ranks 30th when he doesn’t face pressure. The Rams need to muddy the picture post-snap and bait Cousins into mistakes.
According to NFL Pro, the Rams defense has utilized cloud coverage on 26.8 percent of opposing dropbacks this season and allowed the fifth-lowest completion percentage when doing so. With that said, Cousins has completed a league-high 78.6 percent of his passes against cloud coverage. Cousins is still susceptible to mistakes, but when he knows where to go with the ball, he’s still capable of making the throw. The secondary needs to be able to hold up against the Falcons wide receivers.
5. Finish
In their past two wins, the Falcons have overcome 10-point deficits. They trailed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 28-14 in the fourth quarter before winning 29-28. Last week, they were down 10-0 early on the Arizona Cardinals before winning that one 26-19. This is also a team that has given up leads, losing in overtime to the Carolina Panthers after leading 21-10. They also led late in losses to the New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, and Buccaneers early in the season.
There have been times this season that the Rams have struggled to finish and it needs to be a focal point coming out of a long break. The Rams have to do a better job finishing games. While the Falcons may not be as talented as the Philadelphia Eagles or Seattle Seahawks, they are still capable of making a comeback.
