Most Detroit Lions fans this week can probably relate to feeling like an angry elf with the team’s floundering season. The unraveling has been defined less by one collapse than by a steady accumulation of them. Each loss has felt heavier than the last, often coming in ways that raise new questions rather than offering answers. Last week’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers marked the second time this season—along with the earlier defeat to the Minnesota Vikings—that Detroit lost at home as a touchdown-plus favorite. Those kinds of results have taken a visible toll.
This Christmas Day matchup looks far different than it did a year ago, when these teams met in Week 18 on “Sunday Night Football” with the NFC’s No. 1 seed at stake. Instead, both teams hover around .500 with postseason hopes all but dashed and pranced. It’s gone from Clark Griswold dreaming of using his year-end bonus to build a backyard pool to his boss Frank handing out Jelly of the Month Club memberships instead. Minnesota enters just one game behind Detroit in the standings and is expected to start rookie quarterback Max Brosmer, while being without key contributors on the injured reserve with Christian Darrisaw, Jonathan Greenard, and Josh Metellus, as well as a handful of other players potentially sidelined. Even so, the Lions are favored by more than a touchdown despite the Vikings riding a three-game winning streak.
For Lions fans hoping to avoid another lump of coal, Detroit will need to reclaim an edge that’s been missing lately—particularly on the coaching and schematic fronts. With Kevin O’Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores having already had Lions coaches’ number earlier in the season, If the Lions are going to flip that script, two rushing-related statistical matchups stand out as essential.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Pro Football Reference.
Zone blocking, Bah! Humbug!
Kevin O’Connell’s offense—a product of the Shanahan-McVay tree—leans heavily on under-center zone concepts in the run game. While Minnesota has mixed in more gap schemes this season when Jordan Mason is on the field, that approach hinges on his availability. With Mason already declared out, the Vikings must lean on Aaron Jones, who is far more comfortable in zone-based rushing.
Minnesota ranks 11th in the NFL with 86 outside-zone carries this season. Jones has logged 35 outside-zone rushes for 155 yards (4.4 YPC) and another 32 inside-zone carries for 113 yards (3.5 YPC). That profile presents a clear “crapper’s full” stress test for a Lions defense that has struggled badly against zone runs over the past month.
From Weeks 13–16, opposing backs (and tight ends) repeatedly gashed Detroit on inside and outside zone concepts:
- Jaylen Warren (PIT): 9 carries, 107 yards (11.9 YPC)
- Josh Jacobs (GB): 16 carries, 80 yards (5.0 YPC)
- Javonte Williams (DAL): 12 carries, 57 yards (4.8 YPC)
- Kyren Williams (LAR): 8 carries, 44 yards (5.5 YPC)
- Kenneth Gainwell (PHI): 5 carries, 25 yards (5.0 YPC)
- Blake Corum (LAR): 1 carry, 24 yards
- Jonnu Smith (PIT): 1 carry, 8 yards
The Lions have plenty of experience against zone runs recently, and plenty of experience having zone runs ran down their throats. Over the last month, Detroit has allowed 6.2 yards per rush on zone concepts (31st) across 59 attempts, along with a 15.3% explosive run rate (30th).
While Detroit’s playoff hopes have vanished like cookies and milk left out for Santa, that doesn’t mean the Lions defense can’t get right to maybe make next year’s nice list. Kelvin Sheppard’s unit could find their inner nutcracker and toughen back up on run defense and, in particular, against zone running plays. That starts inside, where DJ Reader, Alim McNeill, and the rest of the interior defensive linemen must occupy double teams and prevent road-blocking linemen from getting to the second level. That way, Jack Campbell and the linebackers can flow cleanly to the ball while preventing cutbacks from overpursuit. On the edges, Aidan Hutchinson, Marcus Davenport, Derrick Barnes, and company must hold firm and maintain outside containment to bottle up the zone rushing lane capabilities.
If the Lions can do that—especially against a Vikings offensive line that may be starting Justin Skule at left tackle and Michael Jurgens at center—they can force Minnesota into longer down-and-distance situations and put the game on the shoulders of turnover-prone Max Brosmer (four INTs on just 47 passing attempts). That formula wasn’t executed last week against a depleted Steelers front, but it remains Detroit’s clearest path to controlling this matchup on that side of the ball.
Rudolph without his red nose
Lately, the Lions’ rushing offense has been frah-gee-lay. They’ve executed on the ground like a bunch of cotton-headed ninny muggins. Operating like a group of phlegm-wads.
The Lions’ previous identity revolved around the run game and winning in the trenches. For most of the year, it’s been like a tree without its ornaments, and in the last month, their rushing success rate of 36.9% ranks third-worst in the league. It’s gotten so bad that last week, Aaron Rodgers rushed for over four times more yards than Jahmyr Gibbs.
Back in Week 9 against the Vikings, Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for a whopping 65 yards on 20 carries (3.25 YPC), just three first downs, a 30.0% success rate, and zero explosive runs. One of the worst rushing performances by the duo in their three years together.
The Vikings come in allowing a 48.5% offensive rushing success rate (22nd) and a 7.3% explosive play rate (16th) on the season. But Minnesota has steadily improved, making adjustments in the run game. That includes seeing less of GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s miscalculated, big-ticket, gift-wrapped free agent Javon Hargrave. The Vikings have also gotten heavier up front, occasionally playing three defensive tackles, with standout Jalen Redmond kicking out to over the tackle, similar to what the Lions have done with Alim McNeill, but with some success. Redmond is joined by Jonathan Allen and Levi Drake-Rodriguez on early downs to help stop the run.
Vikings run defense – Redmond, Drake-Rodriguez, and Allen on-field (Since Week 12)
- 51 rushing attempts
- 3.5 yards/rush (t-3rd)
- 45.5% success rate (15th)
- 0.03 EPA/rush (17th)
- 3.9% explosive run rate (2nd)
- 0.67 yards before contact/rush (1st)
With those sleigh-sized studs up front, opponents have had a lot more tough sledding against the Vikings recently. Kudos to Brian Flores and the defensive staff for tinkering to find the right recipe. I’m not optimistic that a rejuvenated Lions run game will appear under fans’ trees this year, but if they can pull off a Christmas miracle, it’ll open everything up—letting Jared Goff and his playmaker elves thrive.
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