The Detroit Lions (8-7) and Minnesota Vikings (7-8) will square off in a Week 17 NFC North battle on Christmas Day. Because the Lions and Vikings have already played this season, this week’s Honolulu Blueprint will look a bit different. Instead of starting from scratch, we will revisit the keys to victory from Week 9, examine what worked and what didn’t, then identify what the Lions need to adjust in Week 17.
If the Lions want to salvage their season by proving their identity remains intact, they’ll need to follow the keys to victory laid out in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.
Vikings’ base schemes
For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, make sure you check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions (from Week 9) Preview: Breaking down Vikings’ offensive and defensive schemes.
Notable changes from Week 9
- Week 9 was the final game in which Lions offensive coordinator John Morton called plays
- Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy—who played in Week 9— injured his hand in Week 16 and will not play in this game. Minnesota will turn to UDFA rookie Max Brosmer.
- The Vikings have been eliminated from the playoffs, while the Lions are nearing that same outcome
Key 1: More Duo run plays
Did it work? Nope.
Overall, the Lions rushed the ball 20 times and produced just 65 yards on the ground, a paltry 3.3 yards per carry. I went back and charted their rushing plays and discovered that they only ran three runs behind a true Duo blocking scheme (all three were run by Jahmyr Gibbs, who turned them into just eight yards), but they did run a lot of inside zone with front-side double teams. Per usual, they favored outside zone plays, but the speed of the Vikings’ defense made that approach challenging.
What’s changed?
The Lions’ rushing attack is coming off their worst performance in the coach Dan Campbell era, producing just 15 yards on 12 attempts, and abandoning their efforts late in the second quarter. With attrition at the tight end position, the Lions supplement their blocking scheme with a sixth offensive lineman (Dan Skipper), but they largely moved away from that approach in their last two games—because they were playing from behind—and it’s negatively impacted their rushing attack.
Adjustments?
The Lions pride themselves on their rushing attack, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them throw a lot of effort toward establishing it early in this game. I still maintain that Duo offers them an opportunity to bully their opponent, but reintroducing jumbo sets with Skipper would also be a benefit here.
Key 2: Beat the blitz; Win one-on-ones
Did it work? Nope
On a day when the Lions’ rushing attack was minimally effective, the Lions attempted nearly twice as many passing attempts (37) as runs (20), and succumbed to pressure on over half their opportunities (20 pressures and five sacks).
Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores ran a multitude of “Cross-Dog” blitzes with his linebackers, lining them up in the A and B-gaps and criss-crossing paths on their way to the quarterback. That forced the Lions to keep Jahmyr Gibbs in as a pass blocker and eliminated his ability to leak out as a pass catcher; Gibbs caught just three receptions on three targets, for only three yards.
What’s changed?
The most impactful change comes on the Vikings’ side of the ball as their best pass rusher, Jonathan Greenard, was placed on injured reserve last week. The Vikings have turned to former first-round pick Dallas Turner to start in his place.
Here’s an excerpt from Next Gen Stats on the Vikings’ pass rush:
The Brian Flores-led Vikings defense has blitzed on 48.8% of dropbacks this season, the only defense over 40%. Their blitz rate is the 3rd-highest by any team since 2018, trailing only the 2023 Vikings (50.3%) and Wink Martindale’s 2019 Ravens (51.5%). Thanks in part to their high blitz rate, the Vikings lead the league in pressure rate at 41.3%. They generated a 47.4% pressure rate in Week 16 despite placing team pressure leader Jonathan Greenard on IR prior to the game, with Dallas Turner and Jalen Redmond leading the team in pressures (4 each) in his absence.
Adjustments?
Turner’s success illustrates that Flores’ scheme is dangerous, regardless of who is in a starting role, and the Lions will need a good game plan to help offset their impact. Campbell talked about the team needing the entire offense to execute their assignments in order to slow down the Vikings’ pass rush:
”I go back to that game, and we made so many mistakes—all over the map. And so we’ve got to eliminate the errors. Let’s eliminate the errors. Look, our backs are going to have to protect, and so is the O-line, and so are the tight ends at times—a little chip and nudge. And then sometimes you have to beat the rush with your receivers; you’ve got to play faster than their rush comes. And (Jared) Goff’s gotta roll. It takes everybody.”
Campbell would elaborate more on the topic a bit more during his recent press conference:
“These guys present a lot of problems, a lot of challenges. So, it starts there (with Goff), and we’ve got to play fast, and make sure communication is where everybody is doing the same thing and honoring what Goff says, […] And then, when you get the ball in your hands, you’ve got to find a way to get it to the first (down marker), and if not, at least close enough for us to go another down.“
Essentially, the Lions are putting a lot on Goff’s mental plate this week, asking him to make the right adjustments and get the ball into his skill players’ hands as quickly as possible. Once there, those athletes will need to do the physical work to get them into the best down-and-distances possible.
Key 3: Attack the middle of the field
Did it work? Yes
While it’s been a struggle to attack the middle of the field against Flores’ defense in the past, the Lions did just that in Week 9, especially early when they leaned on Sam LaPorta, who ended the day with six receptions for 97 yards and a touchdown. Amon-Ra St. Brown also stepped up in a big way, securing nine catches and producing 97 yards receiving.
What’s changed?
LaPorta is on injured reserve, and the Lions have not had a clear answer to replace him at the tight end position. However, Jameson Williams has stepped up his game to near Pro Bowl levels (he’s an alternate) and has become a dangerous threat at all levels of the field. In their last meeting, Williams caught four passes for 66 yards, including a 37-yard touchdown.
Adjustments?
While Williams was still being used as a vertical threat back in Week 9, his ability to go over the middle on in-breaking and crossing routes has opened up the Lions’ passing attack. Here’s Next Gen Stats with a bit more on this revelation:
Jameson Williams has generated 655 receiving yards on in-breaking routes this season, the 3rd-most in the NFL. Williams has averaged 15.9 yards per target on his 40 in-breaking targets in 2025, the 2nd-most by any player in a single season since 2018 (min. 25 targets); he also holds the third spot on that list after averaging 15.7 yards per in-breaking target in 2024. His 9.4 yards after the catch per reception on in-breakers this season are the 2nd-most in the NFL (min. 15 such receptions), and his 5 touchdowns are tied for 4th-most.
With the Lions knowing they need to get the ball out of Goff’s hands in a hurry, look for them to utilize St. Brown and Williams at high levels—ideally over the middle where they can make the Vikings pay for blitzing their linebackers—while tapping into all their skill players’ ability to produce yards after the catch; the Lions currently have the most YAC in the NFL (2263 yards).
Key 4: Give McCarthy the Baker/Lamar treatment
Did it work? Yes
Entering Week 9, the Lions were showing terrific progress in disguising their coverages while containing mobile quarterbacks and limiting their ability to extend plays. Against McCarthy, he ran the ball nine times, but only produced 12 yards, though he did find the end zone once. Through the air, McCarthy was 14 of 25 for 143 yards and two touchdowns, with an 82.6 passer rating. The Lions also sacked him five times and forced an interception.
What’s changed?
McCarthy is injured and has already been ruled out, and the Vikings will turn to UDFA rookie Max Brosmer.
Brosmer has played in five games this season, started one against the Seahawks, and has amassed just over seven quarters of football experience. Over these opportunities, Brosmer has completed 31 of his 47 passing attempts for 220 yards, zero touchdowns, and four interceptions (all against Seattle). In fact, the Vikings have yet to score a single point with Brosmer under center, even though he’s gotten them into position for points; turnovers have ultimately been his undoing.
Adjustments?
Brosmer is a clear downgrade to McCarthy, but he has a talented arm, and he’s not scared to throw the ball into tight windows.—and he’s undoubtedly due to score some points. Here’s Campbell with his assessment of what he’s seen from Brosmer:
“If you give him time to see it, he can throw it, and they’ve got receivers to throw to. The guy is accurate, and so he falls in line with anybody we’re going to play at this point—we have to disrupt him. And then we can’t let the run game get going. These guys, they’re going to lean on ya. They’re going to use the run game because it’ll alleviate a ton of pressure (on Brosmer), and if we let them open the floodgates, it’ll be a long day for us.”
As Campbell notes, the Vikings will surely need to try to establish their run game in order to allow the rookie to get comfortable in the pocket. The Lions will absolutely need to be aware of this, but they can’t let their pass rush suffer by dedicating too much attention to the run game.
The Lions can lose the contain-and-squeeze approach this week and should pin their ears back and try to apply as much pressure as possible, forcing the rookie into making more mistakes.
Key 5: Bracket 18
Did it work? For the most part, yes
Quarterback play has significantly impacted Justin Jefferson’s production in 2025, and Week 9 was no different. On the day, he caught six passes for 47 yards and a touchdown, while no other receiver had more than two receptions in the game.
What’s changed?
The Vikings quarterback situation has gotten even worse. Here’s Next Gen Stats on how Jefferson’s downfield opportunities have been limited this season:
When targeting Justin Jefferson over 20 air yards downfield this season (18 targets), Vikings QBs have completed just 5 passes (0 touchdowns) while throwing 4 interceptions. Jefferson’s 27.8% catch rate on deep targets is tied 12th-lowest in the NFL (min. 10 such targets) after he entered the season with a 53.5% deep catch rate in his career (2nd-highest, min. 50 deep targets from 2020-2024).
Adjustments?
With Jefferson’s downfield targets limited, the need to roll a safety over the top of him is almost unnecessary. The big caveat here is that the Lions’ pass rush needs to get pressure on Brosmer, because if they don’t get home, Brosmer will take the opportunity to hit Jefferson on a big play.
At the end of the day, it’s worth the risk to roll the extra safety into the box to help against the run and allow Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard to utilize the blitz. Getting pressure on Brosmer should be the priority over bracketing Jefferson, who hasn’t scored a touchdown since the last time he played the Lions.
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