The Las Vegas Raiders could be the only team standing between the New York Giants and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Conveniently, the Giants will be in Las Vegas to play the Raiders on Sunday.
Both teams are 2-13 and have nine-game losing streaks. The Giants currently have the No. 1 pick with the Raiders at No. 2. That is because the Giants’ strength of schedule (.530) is slightly worse than Las Vegas’s .540.
The Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals all have three wins with two weeks left in the season.
The Athletic’s simulator gives Las Vegas a 34% chance of earning the first pick in the draft, with the Giants at 33%. A virtual tie. The Browns are given a 22% chance.
ESPN Analytics shows the Raiders with a 37.3% chance of “earning” the No. 1 pick, the Giants with a 36.1% chance, and the Browns a 24.4% chance.
So, the Giants and Raiders control their own destiny. If one of them loses out they will automatically have the No. 1 pick. The Giants finish the season with a home game against the Dallas Cowboys. The Raiders finish by hosting the Kansas City Chiefs.
The good news right now for fans who want to see the Giants lose out and get the No. 1 pick is that FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Raiders as 1.5-point favorites over New York.
Updated NFL Draft order
- New York Giants (2-13, .530 opponents’ winning percentage)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-13, .540 opponents’ winning percentage)
- Cleveland Browns (3-12)
- New York Jets (3-12)
- Tennessee Titans (3-12)
- Arizona Cardinals (3-12)
- Washington Commanders (4-11)
- New Orleans Saints (5-10)
- Cincinnati Bengals (5-10)
- Miami Dolphins (6-9)
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