The Green Bay Packers let a huge game slip away from them against the Chicago Bears, and it has put a big damper on the Detroit Lions’ playoff odds. Had the Packers held onto their late, fourth-quarter 10-point lead, Detroit’s playoff odds would’ve jumped to 32%. Now, they sit at 22% (per NYT Playoff Simulator).
Let’s break down what it means for the Lions, and the playoff scenarios remaining for the Lions.
NFC North standings:
- Bears: 11-4
- Packers: 9-5-1
- Lions: 8-6
- Vikings: 6-8*
*Eliminated from playoff contention
The Bears now take a pretty significant lead in the NFC North and are in the driver’s seat. That said, there is still a path for the Lions to somehow win the division:
Lions win the division if:
- Lions win out (Steelers, Vikings, Bears) AND
- Bears lose to 49ers next week AND
- Packers lose to either Ravens OR Vikings
In that scenario, the Lions and Bears finish 11-6 while the Packers are no better than 10-6-1. Detroit would take the division with a season sweep of the Bears.
NFC playoff picture:
Division leaders:
- x – Seahawks: 12-3
- Bears: 11-4
- z – Eagles: 10-5
- Buccaneers: 7-7
Wild Card race (top three advance)
5. x – Rams: 11-4
6. 49ers: 10-4
7. Packers: 9-5-1
8. Lions: 8-6
9. Panthers: 7-7
z = clinched division
x = clinched playoff spot
The Lions find themselves just a game behind the Packers, and with a win against the Steelers on Sunday, they would move to just a half-game behind Green Bay. Unfortunately, that means the Lions still won’t have their playoff destiny in their hands. They will need some help to get in. Here are Detroit’s four different playoff scenarios:
- Lions win out AND 49ers lose out (at Colts, vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks)
- Lions win out AND Packers lose to Ravens or Vikings
- Lions win out AND Bears lose to 49ers
- Lions go 2-1 in last three games AND Packers lose to both Ravens and Vikings
So, technically, the Lions will not be eliminated if they lose to the Steelers on Sunday. However, in that instance, they will need the Packers to lose out, and Detroit will have to win their final two games.
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