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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.

Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the markets most suited to a given thesis or angle.

The Colts have struggled to generate disruption

The Colts have struggled to generate disruption as they have moved from a heavy zone-coverage team to one that plays a significant amount of man coverage. Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward remain out due to injury and will have been replaced by two cornerbacks ranked in the bottom 10 in PFF coverage grade, so the result has been minimal disruption overall.

The Colts rank second-to-last in the NFL in disruption rate this season, disrupting only 40% of plays. Over the past month, that number has dropped to 36% as the struggles to disrupt have continued.

For Brock Purdy and this 49ers offense, that is close to an ideal scenario. Purdy has been dominant when kept clean and undisturbed, ranking third in the NFL in EPA per play in these situations.

That is especially notable, given this is a Colts offense led by a quarterback with a passing total of 150 yards. If the 49ers play from ahead, they should be able to operate efficiently and front-run this offense, putting Purdy in favorable game-state and matchup situations. I will be on the 49ers, Purdy overs and same-game parlays built around San Francisco’s efficiency against this defense.

Kirk Cousins in a smash spot

PFF has studied the importance of explosive plays and their role in driving offensive success. Simply put, drives without explosive plays are more likely to fail, while a single explosive play on a drive can significantly increase the likelihood of offensive success.

The Cardinals, as they have struggled defensively, have been unable to contain explosive plays, allowing a 13% explosive pass rate over the past month. While Kirk Cousins’ EPA on deep passes has been well below average, that does not tell the full story.

Cousins has been accurate on deep throws despite the results not fully materializing. Adding Drake London into the mix could change that outlook, as wide receivers largely dictate success on deep passes when throws are accurate.

Likewise, Cousins has the lowest escapability of any quarterback, making him highly reliant on scheme and matchup advantages.

Against a Cardinals defense near the bottom of the league in generating pressure, this sets up as a favorable spot for Cousins to excel. I will be on the Falcons team total overs, along with Cousins’ overs and same-game parlays.