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Many NFL bettors start by looking at individual markets — like spreads, totals, teasers or props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “What totals stand out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, focusing on specific bets first.

In this space, we’ll take a different approach. We’ll focus on one game each week and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the bigger picture — how teams, players or trends are performing — and then finding the best ways to apply that information to different betting markets.

While some of our bets may focus on traditional markets, like spreads or totals, we’ll often explore other opportunities to maximize value.

Jacksonville Jaguars moneyline, alt spreads & Trevor Lawrence 280+ passing yards

Let us begin by examining the team fundamentals to establish a baseline for our analysis.

The Jaguars and Broncos grade out as nearly identical teams when looking at full-season metrics. Whether you use EPA per play or drive quality, both offenses and defenses land in almost the same tier. Despite that, the market has Denver priced as a 3.5-point favorite at home — a meaningful gap even after accounting for home-field advantage.

Where this line begins to look inflated is when we zoom in on current form. Since the return of linebacker Devin Lloyd in Week 10, Jacksonville’s defense has been one of the best in football, ranking first in EPA allowed per dropback, second in yards allowed per attempt and second in yards allowed per dropback.

Denver, meanwhile, sits closer to league average over that same stretch, ranking 17th in EPA allowed per dropback and 12th in yards allowed per dropback despite benefiting from a relatively soft schedule. The Jaguars are still being priced like an average defense, creating value relative to their actual performance.

Offensively, Jacksonville has taken another step forward with Jakobi Meyers’ integration into the passing game. Over the past month, Trevor Lawrence hasn’t posted a single game below 8.0 yards per attempt and leads the NFL in EPA per play during that span.

Add it all together, and the Jaguars are outperforming their season-long fundamentals on both sides of the ball. With tangible personnel-driven improvements that look sticky, this feels less like a short-term blip and more like a genuine shift — making the spread appear mispriced.

Matchup Angles

Much of Jacksonville’s recent defensive success has come from generating pressure without blitzing. Over the past month, the Jaguars rank bottom-10 in blitz rate while still sitting top-10 in disruption pressure — winning consistently with four-man rushes.

That profile matters against Bo Nix. Most of Nix’s production has come versus the blitz, where he ranks fourth among quarterbacks in EPA per play. When defenses don’t blitz, however, his efficiency drops sharply — ranking 24th in EPA per play and barely producing positive expected value. That weakness aligns directly with Jacksonville’s strengths: the Jaguars rank third in EPA allowed on four-man rushes over the last month, while Nix ranks 24th in EPA per play in those exact situations. For an already average Broncos passing offense, this is a particularly poor matchup.

On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville’s offense has changed meaningfully with the arrival of Jakobi Meyers. Over the first half of the season, Trevor Lawrence never exceeded a 12% deep-attempt rate and averaged closer to 7%. Over the past month, he hasn’t posted a game below 15% and is averaging a 20% deep throw rate. On those throws, Lawrence is adding nearly a full point of EPA per attempt, rediscovering his strength as one of the league’s better downfield passers.

That aggression sets up well against Denver. The Broncos have allowed the second-highest deep attempt rate in the NFL while playing heavy man coverage — a combination that forces quarterbacks to push the ball downfield. In a matchup where Jacksonville’s defense can dictate terms without blitzing and Lawrence is encouraged into his most efficient style of play, the underlying dynamics strongly favor the Jaguars.