Welcome to the New York Giants betting angle, Week 16 edition. Each week, I’m giving you my three favorite wagers for that week’s New York Giants game. My one rule: I won’t ever give you wagers that are less than -120. No gimmies here.
The Giants had high hopes for a win at home last week, but ran their losing streak to eight games when they fell 29-21 to a Commanders team that came in riding their own eight-game losing streak. Big Blue stays at home this Sunday to face another losing team with nothing to play for – the 6-8 Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have disappointed after their 14-3 campaign a year ago, but they’ve won two straight behind a resurgent J.J. McCarthy. This is their third consecutive game against an NFC East opponent and they’re looking for the sweep. Much like the Giants, one of the Vikings’ priorities this season has been to try to figure out if their long-term answer at quarterback is on their current roster.
The line on FanDuel is MIN -2.5, with a game total of 43.5. Temperatures in the 40s accompanied by light to moderate winds are expected in East Rutherford on Sunday afternoon, so December weather shouldn’t be an issue.
My picks were 2-1 last week. Both of my props hit, but my spread bet on the G-Men missed. The line and total are stay-aways for me this week. I’m done trying to predict if on any given week these Giants will cover a number, and especially with their special teams regularly costing them points. For a team that’s 2-12, they’re maddening to handicap against the spread (7-7 ATS).
Here are this week’s picks. All lines and odds are from FanDuel and are as of Friday, Dec. 19.
- Justin Jefferson Anytime TD (+125). I’ll start this week’s action with a bet with longer odds. Why not? It’s Week 16 – let’s take some risk to win some holiday shopping money! Jefferson has been invisible the last three weeks. He hasn’t topped 25 yards or scored in any of those contests – it’s the worst three-game stretch of his brilliant young career. He also only has two TD catches on the entire season. So why on earth am I taking this prop? Why am I taking something that’s this far into plus-money when I’m trying to have a winning record with my picks? And why should you consider listening to me? Good questions, all. My reasoning: I believe the slump ends Sunday, against a vulnerable Giants’ secondary that has proven all year that it can’t cover a wideout like Jefferson. Jefferson had one TD called back last week, and another slipped through his hands when McCarthy threw him a Randy Johnson fastball when he didn’t need to. I think Minnesota will make a concerted effort to end the JJ-JJ slump this week, and Jefferson will spike the football at least once. It’s contrarian, but hey, sometimes you have to zag.
- Aaron Jones, Sr. OVER 53.5 rushing yards (-114). The Giants can’t stop the run, and I expect a heavy dose of ground and pound from the Vikings as they try to avoid putting the game on McCarthy’s mistake-prone right arm. Jones has only bested this total three times this season, but that’s misleading as he’s been in and out of the lineup with various injuries. The main concern with this total is his backfield split with Jordan Mason. The Giants are giving up around six yards per carry over their last six games, so I don’t think Jones will need a lot of attempts to get to this total. For the season, Big Blue is allowing 153.6 rushing yards per game. Only the Bengals give up more than that, and only by a few yards. There should be enough easy yards there for both backs. Take the over.
- Tyrone Tracy, Jr. OVER 69.5 rushing and receiving yards (-114). Another RB over? Sure, why not. I don’t think the market is properly pricing Tracy, so let’s take advantage. Since Cam Skattebo’s season-ending injury, Tracy has gone over this total in four of six games (and remember, he got injured in one game), and his average scrimmage yards per game is almost 15 yards higher than this total. Yes, Brian Flores coordinates a really good defense, and while I think he’ll do things to confuse Jaxson Dart, that shouldn’t eat into Tracy’s effectiveness or workload. The Vikings are down a couple of key defenders, which will help. Tracy’s snap share with Devin Singletary has ping-ponged the last bunch of weeks, but against the Commanders last week, Tracy played a season-high 76% of the snaps, and tallied 97 scrimmage yards on 18 touches. He should get some looks in the passing game, just like last week. I like this prop to go over.
Those are the picks for Week 16. Good luck with your wagers, and Happy Holidays!
Do you play fantasy football? Check out my Week 16 Fantasy Playoff Preview, right here at Big Blue View.
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