The Detroit Lions (8-6) and Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) will square off in a Week 16 matchup at Ford Field, the final regular-season home game of the year.
“Steelers, man. Got a lot of respect for this team, got a lot of respect for Mike Tomlin, been doing it for a long time, hell of a coach,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said earlier in the week. “Their brand of football; same style, always competitive. And once again, they’re in the race for this division over there. They do it the right way, they do it the hard way, and they make you try to earn it at the end of the game. So, we know this’ll be one of those physical battles. We’ve got to play smart, take care of the football, and be very efficient.”
If the Lions want to get back to their winning ways, they’ll need to follow the keys to victory laid out in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.
Steelers’ base schemes
For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, make sure you check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 16 preview: Breaking down Steelers’ offensive and defensive schemes.
Key 1: Keep the offense on the field
One of the ways the Steelers have been vulnerable this season is their inability to sustain drives. Entering this game, they’ve failed to achieve a first down on 41.8% of their drives and maintain the lowest offensive time of possession in the NFL (45.74%).
With their defense having to play nearly 10% more snaps than their offense, they’ve been fighting uphill battles all season. However, they’ve also struggled to get off the field, allowing teams to convert on third down 42.42% of the time (27th in the NFL) and on fourth down 75.76% of the time (31st). As a result, they currently allow 363.3 yards per game (28th in the NFL) and 5.4 yards per play (18th).
While the Lions are middle of the road in the NFL in time of possession (50.59%, 14th), third down conversions (38.37%, 17th), and fourth down conversions (55.56%, 20th), they haven’t had any trouble putting up yardage, registering 379.9 yards per game (4th) and 6.2 yards per play (2nd) — 6.8 yards per play (1st) since coach Dan Campbell took over play calling in Week 10.
The Lions’ offense is having a lot of success heading into this game, and Detroit will need them to keep playing well and control the game if they hope to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Key 2: Establish the run early
Last week against the Rams, the Lions got caught in the third quarter trying too hard to establish the run, which put their offense in a bad spot and eventually cost them the game. With the Lions surely wanting to establish the run in this game in order to maintain control, they’ll need to make sure to establish it early in the game.
“The scheme is there, it’s good. We just have to make sure we use the right technique coming off the ball, so we don’t get beat, that’s the biggest thing,” Lions offensive coordinator John Morton said about the Lions’ run game struggles on Thursday. “And then sometimes you’ve got to narrow down things so you can make sure you get all the right looks, the certain looks. Sometimes that’s good to be simple. But bottom line: it’s just coming off the ball and using the right technique and being disciplined. That’s the biggest thing. So, I mean, we’ve got the backs, and we’re going to get going. Looking forward to this challenge, because historically it’s been tough to run the ball on Pittsburgh, but we feel good this week going into it.”
This season, the Steelers’ run defense has put up average numbers. Entering this game, they’re 17th in DVOA, allow 120.9 rushing yards per game (19th), 4.4 yards per rush (18th), and have a defensive success rate of 42.1% (22nd) against the run.
The Lions have turned to Jahmyr Gibbs to lead their backfield in 2025, and rightfully so, but the snaps have been more heavily skewed in his favor in recent weeks—which is a bit surprising, considering David Montgomery has been the more statistically successful runner.
Some of these decisions have come down to the challenges Gibbs presents to opposing defenses, but the Lions have also been playing from behind, which has led them to lean on their explosive back. That being said, the Lions recognize that Montgomery is a valuable offensive weapon, and they’re looking for ways to get him more involved.
This could be the game to do just that. Most teams in the NFL attack the perimeter of defensive lines, getting those big bodies moving, while using their offensive athletes to find holes and create opportunities. But the Steelers have been attacked in the middle of their defensive line nearly 49% of the time (8th most), and they’ve given up yardage. This suits Montgomery’s skill set very well, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Lions lean on Montgomery earlier than typical this week, and if they get a lead, they could call him again to close out the game.
Key 3: Quick passes + YAC
The Steelers’ pass rush is their best asset on defense, and their scheme is well-suited in generating pressures (184 on the season, 12th) and sacks (40, 5th). They get to the quarterback quickly (2.59 seconds on average before pressure, 5th) and use the blitz on 31.2% of defensive plays (9th). The only real negative pressure stat the Steelers defense has is their 31.6% pressure rate (25th), but that is a result of their defense being on the field so often.
Fortunately for the Lions, there are a few things they do schematically that will help them in this area. In addition to the run game, the Lions are also going to need their pass catchers to continue stacking yards after the catch (YAC)—they’re second in the NFL in producing YAC—and with the speed the Steelers create pressure, Jared Goff will need to be quick in his decision making.
With the Steelers running an aggressive front and dropping into zone coverage behind them (over 70% of the time), they inherently become dependent on their linebackers to both pass rush and drop into coverage. Unfortunately, their linebackers have struggled with their coverage this season, making the short and intermediate levels in the middle of the field vulnerable to offensive skill players who strike quickly. This shows up in the Steelers’ inability to defend YAC, resulting in them allowing the 28th most YAC in the NFL.
This plays right into the hands of the Lions. According to Next Gen Stats, the Lions are the most efficient team in the NFL when attacking the intermediate levels of the field (the Steelers are 21st in defending this area) and the No. 2 team in the NFL in attacking the short zones (the Steelers are 16th). They’re also the No. 1 offense in generating passing success when teams blitz them—which directly ties into their success in these two areas.
The Lions like to stretch zone defenses with Jameson Williams and Isaac TeSlaa, then carve them up underneath with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Gibbs. They’ve also found ways to incorporate Williams more underneath, allowing him to catch quicker passes and utilizing his speed to generate YAC.
Look for the Lions to take advantage of underneath zones with YAC, establish a rushing attack that puts them into advantageous down-and-distances, and hold on to the ball as they slowly work their way down the field.
Key 4: Halt Rodgers’ hot streak
At 42 years old, Aaron Rodgers does everything he can to avoid being taken to the ground, and for the majority of the season, he’s relied on quick passes and YAC from his offensive skill players to generate offensive production. His average depth of target (ADOT) is amongst the lowest in the NFL (6.03 yards, 46th among qualifying quarterbacks), as is his average yards per completion (3.2 yards, last in the NFL). Fortunately for the Steelers, they’re the No. 1 team in the NFL in producing YAC, accounting for over 70% of the Steelers’ total passing yards.
This offensive approach has its benefits and detriments.
On the positive side, Rodgers has adapted his throwing style to get the ball out quickly and avoid sacks, keeping the offense moving. As a result, the Steelers have allowed only 100 pressures on the season (fewest in the NFL), and also maintain the league’s best pressure rate, just 21.9% on the season.
Here’s Next Gen Stats with more:
Aaron Rodgers has averaged the quickest time to throw in the league entering Week 16 (2.65 seconds) and, consequently, has been pressured at the lowest rate (21.9%). However, Rodgers has been sacked on 26.1% of his pressured dropbacks, the 4th-highest mark among quarterbacks.
The downside of Rodgers needing to make quick decisions is that if he is delayed, he’s no longer the escape artist he once was and is very susceptible to pressure. Rogers’ EPA on an average dropback is 0.06, but when he is blitzed, his EPA drops to -0.09 (30th among QBs), and when pressured, it spikes to -0.43 (35th).
For most of the season, defenses have been content to drop their safeties into coverage shells, guard against the quick passes, and try to make tackles, knowing that the Steelers often see their drives stall. As a result, we’ve seen stretches where Rodgers’ production was low. For example, in Weeks 10-13, Rodgers failed to pass for more than 161 yards in any game, and they went 1-2 over that stretch.
However, the last two weeks have seen a resurgence in Rodgers’ efficiency.
In Week 14 against the Baltimore Ravens (DVOA defense ranking: 18), Rodgers aggressively attacked their single-high man-coverage defense, throwing for 224 yards and doubling the number of shots he typically takes downfield. Rodgers completed all three passes over 20 yards, a very high success rate given he had only seven such completions on the season entering this game.
The following week, Pittsburgh took on a Miami Dolphins defense (DVOA defensive ranking: 21) with a completely opposite approach (lots of two-high zone coverage looks), but Rodgers stayed hot and took advanatge of their soft shell coverage. He registered 284 yards passing (his best outing of the season) by simply taking what was there, reverting back to his dink-and-dunk style of offense, but completing over 85% of his passes. He only passed the ball beyond 10 yards five times in this game, but two were for touchdowns.
The Lions run a defense most similar to Baltimore’s, deploying single-high coverage around 60% of the time, while running man coverage underneath. To halt Rodgers’ hot streak, the Lions defense will need to disguise their coverage plan and force Rodgers back into his dink-and-dunk passing game. This approach best suits the Lions because they have proven to be one of the league’s best tackling defenses and are the second-best team in the NFL at preventing YAC. If the Lions can take away Rodgers five or fewer deep shots in this game, they’ll significantly limit what the Steelers can do on offense.
Key 5: Don’t sleep on pass-catching RBs
While wide receiver DK Metcalf and the Steelers’ tight ends will garner the majority of attention in the passing game, it’s important that the Lions’ defense keeps track of the Steelers’ running backs. While the Steelers’ starting running back is Jaylen Warren, he’s slowly been ceding reps to Kenneth Gainwell, who has proven to be both a threat as a runner and a pass catcher.
Originally signed to be a backup RB2 and kick returner, Gainwell has gotten hot of late and has become a favorite option of Rodgers. Against the Dolphins last week, Gainwell ran for 80 yards on the ground (13 carries) while also hauling in seven catches for 46 yards. His ability to be effective through the passing game has created problems for defenses.
Here’s more from Next Gen Stats on this topic:
“Steelers’ running backs have been crucial in the passing game this season. Kenneth Gainwell is targeted at the highest rate among running backs (29.1%) and a team-high rate on late downs (30.2%), catching 21 of his 26 late-down targets for 124 yards (min. 100 season routes). A majority of Jaylen Warren’s targets (73.7%) have been behind the line of scrimmage; however, both backs have produced from these targets with 185 and 180 receiving yards. Warren and Gainwell have combined for 804 yards after the catch and 27 first downs.”
Having two capable pass-catching running backs makes things hard on defenses, especially those without capable coverage linebackers.
“Gives them another element. If you’re able to get the running back out and he’s a good route runner, then you get isolated on the linebacker,” Campbell said. “We’re fortunate; we’ve got some pretty good backers here, so that helps. But yet it’s still a matchup that I would say most offenses are always looking for in general.”
Fortunately for the Lions, Alex Anzalone is one of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL and has proven capable of handling challenging assignments against running backs. However, if Anzalone is occupied with the Steelers’ running backs, it’ll be important for the rest of the Lions linebackers and safeties to help support him by filling in the gaps behind him. That means players like Jack Campbell and Avonte Maddox will need to have highly productive games in coverage in order to clog the middle of the field and prevent YAC.
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