Even when I try to go simple with my bold prediction, it still doesn’t come true. Last week’s prediction was a big ask, despite it being straightforward. This week’s bold prediction might be too much to ask for in this game, but as much as the Detroit Lions are in must-win mode, so am I.
In Week 16, the Lions have their home season finale against the Pittsburgh Steelers. If you’ve been watching football for a long time, you know the Steelers are known for having a strong defense. While the defense as a whole this season hasn’t been up to par, one part where they dominate is in their pass rush. I got a feeling that, despite being a problem for other teams, the Lions will hold off the Steelers’ pass rush.
Bold prediction of the week: The Steelers don’t record a sack
Despite facing the most sacks he’s ever faced in his career in Detroit, I believe Lions quarterback Jared Goff will avoid Steelers defenders on Sunday afternoon. While the standard of the Lions’ offensive line hasn’t been up to par, with a rookie right guard and second-year left guard for most of the year, alongside most of the line dealing with injuries, this unit is still respectable. First, they’ve kept Goff upright in four games this season.
Full disclosure, three of those games have been against bottom-half defenses (Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders). In its toughest matchup against the Cleveland Browns, though, (third in the NFL in sacks with 47), they held off EDGE Myles Garrett from adding any more sacks to his possibly record-breaking season. What also helped the Lions in three of those games (excluding Washington) was that they had all five starters alongside the line.
Starting left guard Christian Mahogany has been on IR since suffering a lower leg injury in Week 9, leaving Detroit to shuffle around his replacement. It was originally Kayode Awosika, until he also suffered an injury that brought back the infamous guard rotation between Trystan Colon and rookie Miles Frazier. While the two split snaps in the previous two games, Colon appeared to have won the job by getting more snaps against the Los Angeles Rams.
Despite playing more, Colon struggled against the Rams, getting a 43.3 run block grade and 31.2 pass blocking grade. Frazier outperformed him, getting a 55.3 run block grade and a 56.9 pass blocking grade. The good news for the offensive line is that Mahogany hoped to return against either the Rams or the Steelers, and after missing the Rams game, that leaves this week as his next return date. If Mahogany can return, this offensive line can receive a massive boost on the left side, where Detroit has struggled in his absence. If Mahogany needs another week to return, I wouldn’t be shocked if Frazier gets the nod over Colon.
Now, while the Lions’ offensive line has had some success and struggles, they’re matched up against the Steelers defense that is tied for fifth in the league for sacks with 40. Leading that front is former NFL Defensive Player of the Year in linebacker T.J. Watt, as he has a team-high seven sacks. While Watt hasn’t had this few sacks since 2022 when he had five and a half, this time he’s got more help alongside the defensive front.
Linebackers Nick Herbig and Alex Highsmith are right behind Watt in sacks with six and a half each. They’re also getting help on the interior from defensive tackles Keeanu Benton (4.5 sacks) and veteran Cameron Heyward (2.5 sacks). PFF has the pass rush ranked third in the NFL at 83.1 and it’s understandable why.
The thing that favors Detroit in this matchup is that Watt and Herbig could miss the game on Sunday. Watt suffered a partially collapsed lung in the middle of last week, forcing him to miss Week 15, while Herbig suffered a hamstring injury in the game. At the time of writing, the status of the players is unknown for Sunday, but both are trending toward missing the game. If Watt and Herbig are gone, there goes 13.5 of the 40 sacks on the defense. Losing two of the top three pass rushers on the team forces others on the Steelers defense to step up, but if Detroit can put more resources on the reinforcements, they might not see the same success they had previously.
It’s not easy stopping this Steelers defensive line either, as only two times this season have they been held without a sack, both losses to the Green Bay Packers and Buffalo Bills. If the Steelers shuffle around its defensive front going up against a Lions offensive line that could see its starting left guard return, the chemistry Detroit will have will outdo the Steelers. If Herbig and/or Watt play on Sunday, the Lions’ game plan should be similar to what it was against the Browns: get the ball out quickly so the defensive pressure can’t have time to get to Goff.
If the Lions can get Mahogany back at left guard and if Watt and/or Herbig miss the game, this bold prediction should come true. If Frazier has to start and Watt and Herbig do play, I think it’s still something that can happen, but the Lions must change how they attack this Steelers defense.
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