The New York Giants 2025 season is winding down, with just three more games before we get to the offseason.
The Giants will face the Minnesota Vikings in Week 16, as the two struggling teams try to end on a positive note. The Vikings are currently 6-8 on the season and riding a 2-game winning streak after beating the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys.
The Vikings were fielding one of the NFL’s worst offenses prior to Week 14, scoring 19, 17, 6, and 0 points from Week 10 to Week 13. Over the last two weeks, however, they’ve scored 31 and 37 points and racked up 640 total yards.
The Giants, meanwhile, have had a highly disappointing defense that’s largely failed to live up to expectations or its talent level. Can the Giants’ defense do enough for the team to notch a win as 2025 winds down?
Discipline
If we can sum up the Giants’ issues on defense in a single word, “discipline” is likely the most apt. They have talent on the defensive side of the ball, and there are indivudual flashes on most plays. However, defense — and run defense in particular — is a team game, and the defense’s most persistent issue has been lapses in discipline compromisign the overall structure of the defense.
Too often against the Commanders we saw instances of multiple defenders attacking the same hole, leaving a free escape elsewhere, losing contain or not understanding where help is, or biting too hard on play-action.
In coverage, there were a few too many instances of the defender seeming to guess on the route, turning the wrong way at the break or playing short routes only to react late to deep routes.
Kevin O’Connell’s scheme for the Vikings’ offense will likely try to exploit lapses in discipline on the Giants’ defense. Minnesota makes heavy use of play-action to slow pass rushers while pulling second and third level defenders out of position. O’Connell even uses jet motion from receivers to create a run-action fake in the absence of a run threat from the back.
They frequently combine their play-action with bootleg rollouts, taking advantage of J.J. McCarthy’s athleticism to move the pocket, change angles, and create separation from pass rushers. Those rollouts can transition into quarterback scrambles if the opportunity presents itself. The Vikings also make use of designed quarterback runs as well as read-option plays in their offense.
The good news is that the Giants did show improved discipline at times against the Commanders. They did a much better job of being assignment sound last week, particularly early in the game.
The Giants’ front seven does an excellent job of holding then discarding blocks, keeping themselves clean, and flowing to the ball. Bobby Okereke has the running back, while Brian Burns and Roy Robertson-Harris wash the blockers down. Darius Muasau takes on the pulling tight end, with Dane Belton and Tyler Nubin coming downhill as erasers. They aren’t necessary as Okereke fills his gap well, bringing the running back down for a two-yard gain.
The Giants will need to continue this kind of progress and take steps toward consistently playing with discipline against the Vikings.
Has J.J. McCarthy turned a corner?
The Vikings intended J.J. McCarthy to be their next franchise quarterback when they drafted him with the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. They would, however, have to wait until 2025 to see him on the field after he lost his rookie season to a torn meniscus.
Expectations were high when McCarthy finally took the field in 2025, but he failed to meet them. McCarthy was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL at the start of the season.
Over the last few weeks, however, McCarthy has played significantly better. It’s a small sample size, but McCarthy is currently fifth in composite efficiency since Week 13.
McCarthy seems to be playing more relaxed football in recent weeks, looking less mechanical and not locking onto his reads quite as much. His throwing mechanics haven’t been consistent, however he’s been relatively accurate in his passes. McCarthy still has a strong arm with a whippy motion that allows him to access all areas of the field, and also has the ability to throw on the run.
Both the Vikings’ offensive scheme and McCarthy are vulnerable to pressure, however rollouts allow him to minimize pressure while giving himself more favorable angles. They also, however, hold him to limited reads and take chunks of the field away from the offense.
McCarthy is still learning how to throw with touch and trajectory, with a tendency to make too many passes “frozen rope” fastballs. However, growth into the player he was drafted to be will be better able to make use of Minnesota’s talented skill position players.
The big question for this game, however, is whether McCarthy has truly turned a corner in his development. We should also note that his best games were against the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys, two poor pass defenses. The Giants’ defense is capable of being very disruptive, but they also have yet to be consistent or (as mentioned above) consistently disciplined.
The Giants need to make sure that they can pressure McCarthy, as well as take advantage when he makes a mistake. The Giants have let opposing teams off the hook all too often this year, and they could have a winning season if they simply made plays and finished games when they had the opportunity.
New York will need to force McCarthy to prove that he’s taken a big step in his development and beat them, not simply be there while they find a novel way to lose the game.
Jimmies and Joes
O’Connell is an excellent offensive mind and which version of McCarthy shows up will be a huge factor in how the game unfolds. However, there are 21 other players on the field and the Giants will have to contend with the Vikings’ talented offense.
The first order of business always has to be the running game. The Vikings have one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the NFL, currently ranking second in Run Block Win Rate. They don’t run the ball often, ranking 28th in rushing attempts, but they’re about as efficient as you’d expect based on their win rate and average 4.5 yards per carry.
Veteran running back Aaron Jones is the most recognizable name in the Minnesota backfield, but it’s fourth-year rusher Jordan Mason who leads the team in carries, yards, and touchdowns. The 5-foot-11, 230 pound back has 659 yards on 143 carries (4.6 per carry) as well as six touchdowns on the ground, compared to 93 carries for 410 yards (4.4 ypc) and one touchdown for Jones. The two backs complement each other well, with Mason’s power providing a stark contrast to the 5-foot-10, 205-pound Jones.
Stopping the run may be the Giants’ first concern, but they can’t afford to completely sell out to do so.
The Vikings have one of the most dangerous collections of receiving options in the NFL with wide receivers Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor, as well as tight end T.J. Hockenson. Jefferson and Addison are one of the most dangerous receiving duos in the NFL, with the ability to beat defenses at every level with excellent route running as well as ball skills. Nailor has emerged as a very good third option who leads the team in yards per reception as well as receiving touchdowns. Hockenson remains a dangerous receiving tight end as well as a capable blocker. He’s a big and athletic tight end who can get into position quickly as well as make plays with the ball in his hands.
The breadth and depth of the Vikings’ skill position players is going to test the back seven of the Giants’ defense. Few secondaries and linebacker corps can truly contain that collection of players, so it will fall to the Giants’ defensive line to disrupt plays before they get going.
The good news here is that Abdul Carter is coming off of the best game of his young career against the Washington Commanders and Brian Burns has been playing at a DPOY level. Likewise, Darius Alexander has been taking steps forward this year. The Giants will need Dexter Lawrence to play as well as he’s capable, considering the issues with his elbow, however the Vikings’ pass protection is significantly weaker than their run blocking. They rank 23rd in pass block win rate, fifth in sacks allowed, and third in sack rate allowed.
If the Giants can force the Vikings into passing situations — or they simply opt to stay pass heavy — the Giants’ pass rush could be a difference maker in this game.
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