Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season kicks off with a huge NFC West showdown and a game that has some interest for Detroit Lions fans. The 11-3 Los Angeles Rams head north to face the 11-3 Seattle Seahawks. Winner will take the lead in the division, and if the Rams win, they’ll notch the key head-to-head tiebreaker with a clean sweep of the Seahawks.
Of course, none of that really matters to Detroit. The only thing that matters to them is getting in, and while it’s a bit of a longshot, this game could very well impact the Lions’ ability to get into the dance.
Before I get into it, let’s look at the NFC playoff picture.
Current NFC playoff picture
Division leaders:
- Rams: 11-3
- Bears: 10-4
- Eagles: 9-5
- Buccaneers: 7-7
Wild Card standings (top three advance)
5. Seahawks: 11-3
6. 49ers: 10-4
7. Packers: 9-4-1
8. Lions: 8-6
9. Panthers: 7-7
10. Cowboys: 6-7-1
Detroit needs to jump just one team, but they find themselves down at least 1.5 games to every team above them with only three games remaining. Most of the discussion has been around the Lions jumping one of the NFC North teams, as that remains the most likely scenario. As long as Detroit finishes two wins better than either the Bears or Packers in the final three games, the Lions are in.
But there are two more teams that are catchable: the 49ers and Seahawks. In both cases, the Lions need to win out and the other team needs to lose out (because the 49ers also hold the tiebreaker with a better conference record). Luckily for Detroit, both teams have difficult remaining schedules against three teams vying for playoff spots.
49ers remaining opponents:
- at Colts (8-6)
- vs. Bears (10-4)
- vs. Seahawks (11-3)
If the 49ers lose out, they drop to 10-7, while a Lions three-game winning streak would put them at 11-6.
Now, the Seahawks:
Seahawks remaining opponents:
- vs. Rams (11-3)
- at Panthers (7-7)
- at 49ers (10-4)
If the Seahawks lose out and the Lions win out, both teams would sit at 11-6. But Detroit would win the tiebreaker due to a better conference record in this scenario (7-5 vs. 6-6).
And since the Rams are no longer catchable for the Lions, that makes Thursday’s rooting guide very easy: Root for the Seahawks to lose.
Okay, but how much difference does it make?
Cards on the table: not much.
If the Lions win out, their playoff odds are already very high—somewhere around 94-95% per the New York Times Playoff Simulator. There is a small chance that isn’t good enough to catch the Packers or Bears, if both teams go at least 2-1 down the stretch. In that instance, the Lions would need help from a Seahawks or 49ers meltdown. A Rams win on Thursday would push those odds to 96%. It’s admittedly not much.
Still, if you want to keep as many playoff paths available—no matter how unlikely—a Seahawks loss is the undeniable better outcome on Thursday.
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