Welcome to Week 16, and Round 2 of the Fantasy Football Playoffs!
If you’re still sniffing a championship after this past weekend, you probably didn’t have the misfortune of going up against Trevor Lawrence, who had six total TDs and scored the most fantasy points of any player this entire season, or Kyle Freaking Pitts (his new name), who scored 20% of his career TDs and around 7% of his career fantasy points in one game (an 11-166-3 eruption) this past Thursday night. Sometimes, you can’t see the car that’s about to run you over.
In other news, Week 15 was marked by a slew of injuries, and there are a lot of situations to monitor this week and especially at the running back position. The most significant injury was three-time NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes tearing his ACL in the fourth quarter of the Chiefs’ 16-13 loss to the Chargers. The Chiefs not only lost Mahomes, but are eliminated from playoff contention, meaning their remarkable streak of appearing in seven straight AFC title games is over.
The Mahomes/Tom Brady parallels are eerie. Both players sat as rookies. Both became starters during their second season. Both won three Super Bowls across their first seven seasons as the starter. Both lost the Super Bowl in their eighth season, to an NFC East team. Both players then tore an ACL in their ninth season. We know what Brady did after that. Duplicating it won’t be easy for Mahomes, who will turn 31 at the start of next season.
Abraham Lincoln was first elected President in 1860, was assassinated by a man with three names, and was succeeded by a Vice President named Johnson. John F. Kennedy was first elected President in 1960, was assassinated by a man with three names, and was succeeded by a Vice President named Johnson. Just throwing that out there.
Stats of the Week:
- With three games remaining on the schedule, Myles Garrett needs one sack to tie the NFL single-season record of 22.5, shared by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt.
- The Jets don’t have an interception this season, through 14 games. No team in the modern NFL has gone a full season without a pick. The lowest total is two (2018 49ers).
- This season’s AFC Conference Championship game will be the first one since January, 2010 that does not have either Brady or Mahomes competing in it.
- The Raiders are the first team since the 2000 Browns to be shut out twice in the same season. They play the Texans and their No. 1-ranked defense this week.
- The Lions have alternated wins and losses across their last ten games.
- The Rams have scored 40+ points and rolled up 500+ yards of offense in back-to-back games.
- The Steelers have won 23 straight home games on Monday Night Football.
- Caleb Williams has thrown just 12 interceptions across his first 1,000 NFL pass attempts, which is the fewest in NFL history.
- TreVeyon Henderson recorded his fourth TD run of 50+ yards on Sunday against the Bills. That ties him with Lenny Moore of the old Baltimore Colts (1956) and Saquon Barkley (2018) for the most such runs by a rookie.
- Philip Rivers is older than both his head coach and his offensive coordinator.
Fantasy Stat of the Week:
- Across the last five weeks, the Cardinals have the fantasy QB3 (Jacoby Brissett), WR1 (Michael Wilson), and TE1 (Trey McBride). In case anyone needed further proof that fantasy football isn’t real, the Cardinals are 0-5 in that stretch.
Week 16, here we go!
Bye Weeks: NONE
Week 16 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, often as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise. As a general rule, start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are almost always expected to have strong performances. You don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen, Jahmyr Gibbs, or JSN. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride, Fade,and Sleeper of the Week. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade can’t be someone who nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper must be from down in the rankings.
NEW FEATURE: For this week and next, I’m adding a “toughest call” at each position.
My Rides, Fades, and Sleepers put up a strong showing in Week 15, led by Ride of the Week Travis Etienne, whose 28.5 fantasy points were second among RBs. My Fade of the Week and Sleeper of the Week were whiffs, but I had multiple hits across the board and not that many misses. You can check my work here: Week 15.
Ride of the Week: Jacoby Brissett (vs. ATL). What more do you need to see? Brissett has started nine games for the Cardinals and the consistency has been remarkable, and tops among QBs for fantasy. He has scored between 18.7 and 24.8 fantasy points in every one of those nine starts and is the QB3 for that stretch. Even last week, against a Houston defense that had been allowing the fewest fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing QBs, he put up 21.6 points. Arizona’s defense is straight-up awful, and Brissett and the offense are almost always chasing points. This week’s opponent is middle of the pack against QBs, but it almost doesn’t matter at this point. Ride the hot hand to a ‘Chip.
Fade of the Week: George Pickens (vs. LAC). What’s going on with Pickens? A lot has been made of his body language and of him dogging routes the past few weeks, and he’s been held under 40 yards in back-to-back contests. Maybe he’ll silence his critics with a resurgent performance this week (he certainly has the talent to do so — he’s third in the league in receiving yards), but I’d be nervous starting him with my season on the line. The Chargers have allowed the second fewest TDs (6) and the fewest FPPG to opposing WRs. Start Pickens at your own peril.
Sleeper of the Week: Kirk Cousins (@ARI). There are multiple second-tier QBs with juicy matchups against bad pass defenses this week, so take your pick of Cousins, Tyler Shough (vs. NYJ), J.J. McCarthy (@NYG), Bryce Young (vs. TB), and Aaron Rodgers (@DET). Cousins is the lowest-ranked of the bunch this week so I’ll feature him, but really, this entire group is my Sleeper of the Week. Cousins is coming off a big game (and improbable comeback win), and will hopefully have Drake London back this week, to go along with the resurgent Pitts and the rest of the weapons. I have a slight concern that it’ll be a very heavy dose of the Atlanta ground attack against an awful run defense, but this game has a Vegas total of 48.5 and I think there will be enough to go around.
Quarterback:
Elite options this week – Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts; the analysis starts below them, and yes, I’m down to two “elite option” QBs this week given recent performance and certain of the matchups.
Rides:
It’s a little hard to recommend Joe Burrow (@MIA) after the Bengals got shut out at home last week, but the Dolphins are in disarray, are likely going to be without Minkah Fitzpatrick, and I think this is a good rebound spot. Miami’s defense has been excellent over the last month or so, but they got diced up by Aaron Rodgers in the second half on Monday night. Getting Tee Higgins back would help, but either way I think Burrow shines.
Justin Herbert (@DAL) has been a Fade for me the last two weeks, and it was the right call both times. His hand injury is clearly hampering him, plus the matchups weren’t easy. Herbert hasn’t topped 15 fantasy points in any of his last five outings, but I think a trip to Dallas will be the tonic that it’s been all season long. They’ve allowed the most passing yards, TD passes (31), and FPPG to opposing QBs. Fire up Herbie if you need him.
Other QBs ranked inside the Top-15 this week who I think can beat their weekly ranking include Lamar Jackson (vs. NE), Jared Goff (vs. PIT), Bo Nix (vs. JAC), and Brock Purdy (@IND). All have good matchups, are capable of big numbers, and are coming off solid games.
Sleepers:
If you need a second quarterback in a Superflex, or a Bye-Week streamer for one of the QBs who is injured or on a Bye, see the five QBs listed under Sleeper of the Week.
Fades:
Dak Prescott (vs. LAC) has a brutal matchup this week, albeit at home. The Chargers have allowed the fewest passing TDs (12) and FPPG to opposing QBs and are the only team with more picks (17) than TD passes allowed. They’ve been especially stingy over the past month. Dak is usually an auto-start, but maybe not this week. He’s a borderline Fade for me (obviously, it depends who else you have).
Jaxson Dart (vs. MIN) has been steadily and reliably productive, but I’m leery of the matchup this week. The Vikings haven’t allowed a TD of any kind to the last two QBs they faced (one of whom was Dak Prescott) and have only allowed one TD pass across their last six games. I think Brian Flores will dial up some looks that Dart hasn’t seen. The Vikings have allowed the third fewest FPPG to opposing QBs, and just 230 rushing yards and one rushing TD to the position. They are down a couple of defensive starters though, so I’m not quite as scared of them as I might’ve been.
Sam Darnold (vs. LAR) has had back-to-back nightmare games against the Rams, including in the playoffs last year. I don’t think he’ll throw four picks again, but he’s hard to click into lineups given his recent fantasy results (QB26 since Week 10), and recent history against this defense. Bad weather in Seattle is also possible on Thursday night.
Other lower-ranked quarterbacks that you might be considering, but who I’d avoid in Superflex this week, include Marcus Mariota (vs. PHI), Philip Rivers (vs. SF), Shedeur Sanders (vs. BUF),and Cam Ward (vs. KC).And no, I would not roll the dice on Quinn Ewers (vs. CIN) in his first NFL start, despite the favorable matchup at home.
Toughest Call
What do you do with Trevor Lawrence (@DEN), after that monster outing last week? He’s playing the best football of his pro career and it’s a huge game for playoff positioning. Denver has allowed the fourth fewest FPPG to opposing QBs, but they haven’t been invincible. Remember what Jaxson Dart did in an earlier visit to mile high. It’s not ideal, but if you need Lawrence, I wouldn’t shy away just because of the matchup.
Running back:
Elite options this week – Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, Devon Achane, Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, and Saquon Barkley; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Travis Etienne (@DEN) continues to be a weekly must-start and especially with Bhayshul Tuten banged up. It’s a fairly difficult matchup, but he can get it done in both the running and passing game and the offense is scoring plenty.
I don’t expect a lot of scoring from the Browns, and the recent results haven’t been good, but I’d be confident starting Quinshon Judkins (vs BUF) against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. The Bills have allowed the fourth most FPPG to opposing RBs, and the Browns will surely lean on him, at least for however long the game is competitive.
Others ranked inside the Top-25 this week who I think have a good chance to outperform their rankings include:the red-hot TreVeyon Henderson (@CLE), the somewhat hot Chase Brown (@MIA), Aaron Jones, Sr. (@NYG, who allow the third most FPPG to opposing RBs), and D’Andre Swift (vs. GB), assuming his groin is fine (and if he is out, then Kyle Monangai is a green-light special).
Sleepers:
Michael Carter (vs. ATL) figures to lead the Arizona backfield with Bam Knight becoming the third Cardinal back to go on IR this season. He’s good in the passing game and is an RB2 with upside if you need him.
Audric Estime (vs. NYJ) is in a similar boat to Carter. Devin Neal, who himself is a backup, is not going to play, which should open the door for a large backfield share in a good matchup. I’m sure other backs and Taysom Hill will factor in, but still. The Jets have allowed the second most FPPG to opposing RBs, and just yielded four TD catches to the position last week.
Others to consider (outside the Top-25 for the week) if you’re stuck at RB: Tony Pollard (vs. KC), Jordan Mason (@NYG), Blake Corum (@SEA), Kenneth Gainwell (@DET), Kimani Vidal (@DAL), and Tyler Allgeier (@ARI).
Fades:
Ashton Jeanty (@HOU) is again a Fade for me this week. The Raiders will be lucky to run 45 plays and/or score 14 points in this game. The hope is that he’s active in the passing game, with Geno Smith back under center. But he only has one TD since Week 10 and hasn’t been a reliable option.
You’re starting Derrick Henry, but his 11 carries and 37% snap share last week raised some eyebrows. They’re definitely mixing in other backs with Henry more than you’d normally see when the weather gets cold, and he gets no passing game usage, both of which cap his upside. He still managed 100 yards, and he’s been running well, but the huge games just aren’t happening. The Patriots gave up three TDs to James Cook last week but that was an anomaly – they’ve allowed the second fewest FPPG to opposing RBs. Start Henry, just don’t expect a vintage December game from him.
I don’t know if it was because he was battling an illness, but Jaylen Warren (vs. DET) ceded way more work than normal to Kenneth Gainwell, who (as usual) stepped up and was very productive. The Lions are a tough run defense and have allowed the fifth fewest FPPG to opposing RBs. Warren is more of a low-end Flex than an RB2 for me this week.
I’ll fade both Seahawks RBs (vs. LAR). The Rams have allowed the fewest rushing TDs (3) and FPPG to opposing RBs, and Seattle often struggles to run the ball. One of those three TDs went to Ken Walker in the first matchup one month ago, but with a split backfield that’s a little hard to predict and a tough matchup on a short week, both backs are hard to trust this week.
The Titans are a bad run defense, but I really don’t know what to expect from the deflated Chiefs on the road in this game. They were struggling to run the ball with Patrick Mahomes scaring defenses with his arm and legs – can Gardner Minshew do that? I’ll fade the Chiefs RBs.
Toughest Call
R.J. Harvey (vs. JAC). He’s been very good since J.K. Dobbins got hurt, but now he’s nursing a rib injury, in a matchup against a defense that’s allowing the fewest yards per carry, fewest rushing yards, and third fewest FPPG to opposing RBs. If he’s active he’ll be hard to bench, but Harvey carries some risk.
Wide receiver:
Elite options this week – Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Nico Collins. The analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Six Rides this week, all ranked inside the weekly Top-20, and all with favorable matchups against suspect pass defenses: A.J. Brown (@WAS), Michael Wilson (vs. ATL), Mike Evans (@CAR), Chris Olave (vs. NYJ), Jauan Jennings (@IND), and Zay Flowers (vs. NE). Evans has had some monster numbers against the Panthers the last three seasons.
Moving down to those ranked between 21 and 30 for the Week, I like all of these guys as a WR2/WR3 or Flex play this week, if you need them: Ladd McConkey (@DAL), Wan’Dale Robinson (vs. MIN), and Jayden Reed (@CHI).
Sleepers:
I’ve been consistently hitting on a few WR sleepers a week for the last month, so let’s try for more.
Khalil Shakir (@CLE). The Browns’ defense is tough, but the Bills’ offense is humming and I think they’ll be able to move the ball and score on them. Shakir has been fairly disappointing over the last month, but he did catch all five of his targets for 65 yards last week and I like him as an option in 3-WR leagues.
Other WRs ranked outside the Top-30 this week that I think you can plug into lineups if you’re in need include D.J. Moore (vs. GB, and why is he ranked outside the Top-30 this week with other Bears’ receivers injured?), Keenan Allen (@DAL), Romeo Doubs (@CHI, and especially if Christian Watson is out), and Jalen Coker (vs. TB) .
Want deeper sleepers for DFS, of if you’re truly stuck? Cooper Kupp (vs. LAR), Josh Downs (vs. SF), David Sills V (@ARI), Chimere Dike (vs. KC), and Andrei Iosivas (@MIA, and especially if Tee Higgins is out). Hopefully you don’t need to dig this deep for dart throws with your season on the line.
Fades:
Stefon Diggs (@BAL) makes the list for a second straight week. It’s hard to count on any New England pass catcher, as Drake Maye is really spreading the ball around and the team is scoring a lot of rushing TDs lately. On top of that, Diggs’s snap share has been around 50% for three straight games. The Ravens’ defense is hot, and Diggs isn’t, so I’d look elsewhere.
Emeka Egbuka (@CAR). He’s ranked as the WR25 this week but I have him outside the Top-30. He’s now competing with a healthy Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for targets for the first time this season, and his production already had tailed off before that was the case. The Panthers are a slightly negative matchup, and Egbuka continues to be a dicey play.
Other WRs ranked inside the Top-30 and/or who’ve been starting options for much of the season and who I’m lower than consensus on this week include Jaylen Waddle (vs. CIN), Terry McLaurin (vs. PHI), and Brian Thomas, Jr. (@DEN).
Toughest Call
Justin Jefferson (@NYG). Even with cake matchups the last two weeks, and McCarthy playing much better, Jefferson has done next to nothing (2.5 FPPG in the two games since McCarthy returned). Frankly, if you have him on your roster, you probably have no reason to read this article as your season is likely over. Jefferson had a TD called back last week, and another one slipped through his hands when McCarthy threw him a 98-MPH fastball in the end zone. The matchup is tasty (fifth most FPPG yielded to opposing WRs), but I get it if you can’t go there. It’s a tough call.
Tight end:
Elite options this week – Trey McBride and George Kittle. The analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Colby Parkinson (@SEA). Parkinson scored in the first meeting between the teams, one of six TDs in his last six games. Yes, he’s TD-dependent, yes, his ADOT is under four yards, and yes, the Rams utilize multiple tight ends, but with Davante Adams doubtful, a TD becomes more likely. I said this last week: Seattle’s defense has been great all year, except for guarding tight ends. They’ve allowed the second most catches, fourth most yards, and sixth most FPPG to the position. Parkinson is a great option this week.
Dallas Goedert (@WAS). He scored twice last week and has at least 70 yards receiving in back-to-back games. He’s been feast or famine all season, but that’s also true of some other higher-end options at the position. It’s the nature of the tight end beast outside of a couple of elite players. Only the Bengals have allowed more FPPG to opposing TEs than the Commanders.
Other TEs in the Top-15 who I think have a good shot to outperform their weekly ranking, or who I’m just high on, this week: Kyle Pitts, Sr. (@ARI), Dalton Schultz (vs. LV), and Colston Loveland (vs. GB). Schultz has been sneaky-good the past month, and C.J. Stroud is playing a lot better than he did earlier in the season.
Sleepers:
TEs to consider if you’re stuck (ranked outside the Top-14 this week): Juwan Johnson (vs. NYJ), Mark Andrews (vs. NE), and Brenton Strange (@DEN).
Fades:
Repeat from last week: You’re probably starting Brock Bowers (@HOU) because you don’t have a better option and he’s immensely talented. But just like last week, it’s another very bad matchup against a top defense, and how many points are the Raiders going to score? Their implied total is 11.5, which is not only the lowest on the board this week, it’s one of the lowest all season.
Harold Fannin, Jr. (vs. BUF) has had a really good rookie year, and Shedeur Sanders looks for him often (30% target share, and 25 targets the last two weeks), but he scares me this week. The Bills just don’t give anything to tight ends. They’ve allowed a league-low 38 catches to the position, and that’s less than three per game. They’re tied for the fewest TDs allowed to TEs (two) and have yielded the fewest FPPG to the position. The usage has been great, but Fannin is a tough call this week.
Other TEs who’ve been starting options, but who I’d rather avoid this week if I could, include Hunter Henry (@BAL, who allow the fourth fewest FPPG to opposing TEs), Jake Ferguson (vs. LAC), and Tyler Warren (vs. SF).
Toughest Call
Darren Waller (vs. CIN). Waller hasn’t been on the field a lot this season, but he’s been a favorite red-zone target of Tua Tagovailoa when he’s been out there. He scored twice in garbage time on Monday night, and in just seven games played this season he has six TDs on 26 catches. You’ve heard this all season long: The Bengals are historically bad against TEs, and have allowed the most catches, yards, TDs (15), and FPPG to the position, in some cases by a wide margin. The catch is that nobody knows what Miami’s offense will look like with Quinn Ewers under center for his first NFL start. Gunnar Helm had a big season with Ewers at Texas in 2024 (60-786-7), and Ja’Tavion Sanders had decent production the prior year, but I don’t know if that’s relevant to an NFL debut. The matchup is ideal and so I think Waller is a go, but I have him as a borderline TE1, and not as a smash.
PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-12 for the week): See my Week 16 Waiver Wire column.
Good luck in Week 16!
***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly Prop bets of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***
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