The Minnesota Vikings and J.J. McCarthy have looked much better over the past two weeks. At a high level, the improved results are largely attributable to McCarthy’s play. His 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in that span is a massive upgrade from the 1-to-3 ratio in his previous three starts. The team has also scored 65 points in the last two games compared to just 42 in the prior three.
Is this improvement simply because he’s facing porous defenses, or has McCarthy truly taken a big step forward?
The Case for Bad Defenses
- Washington Commanders – 2nd worst in Total Yards per Game (YPG), 4th worst in Passing YPG, 7th most Points Allowed
- Dallas Cowboys – 4th worst in Total YPG, worst in Passing YPG, 2nd most Points Allowed
The Vikings have faced two of the league’s worst defenses in recent weeks. McCarthy has enjoyed plenty of time to throw and receivers running wide open. Still, he’s not fully in sync with Justin Jefferson—partly due to McCarthy’s inconsistency and partly Jefferson’s drops. They need to figure that out.
McCarthy’s mechanics remain poor, as noted several times on the broadcast. This has led to inconsistent ball placement. The recent success might just look better because the opponents are that bad.
The Case for McCarthy’s Improvement
The confidence radiating from McCarthy is exactly what you want at quarterback. You can’t tell me Brady, Manning, or Mahomes weren’t a little arrogant. NFL QBs need that swagger, and McCarthy has it. His teammates are rallying around him, including superstar Justin Jefferson, who isn’t acting like a diva despite poor team results and limited stats.
McCarthy is a proven winner—you saw it in the opener, the Lions game, and these last two weeks. He just needs time to figure things out and deliver consistent results. The last two games show what he can become, and it feels like he’s going to continue trending higher.
Where I Stand
Truth be told, I’m on the fence. It’s not all about weak opponents, but McCarthy didn’t suddenly jump from the worst QB ever to a functional starter overnight. The good news? The Giants defense stinks—they’re 3rd worst in Total YPG, 10th worst in Passing YPG, and have allowed the 4th most points. McCarthy should have another solid game and likely outplay Jaxon Dart on the other side.
The Lions aren’t much better (12th worst in Total YPG, 9th worst in Passing YPG, and 10th most points allowed). And the Packers just lost Micah Parsons for the season to a torn ACL. I’m anticipating another two or three strong performances to close out the year.
If McCarthy stacks five solid games to end the year, the conversation might flip from “Is Nine’s the guy?” to “How high is Nine’s ceiling?”. For a franchise starving for stability at quarterback, that’s a question worth asking. And if McCarthy delivers, this could be the turning point that defines the Vikings’ future.
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