The Detroit Lions are on the verge of missing the playoffs. They almost certainly have to win their remaining three games, and if they do, their odds are actually incredibly high. Per the New York Times, just by winning their last three games, their playoff odds jump to 94-95 percent.
Even if the Lions lose on Sunday to the Pittsburgh Steelers, they almost certainly won’t be mathematically eliminated. However, there is very specific scenario that would bounce the Lions from the playoffs in Week 16.
How the Lions could be eliminated in Week 16
You see, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers are both on the precipice of clinching a playoff spot. They both play each other this week, and whoever wins will clinch a spot if the Lions lose this week to the Steelers. That makes a ton of sense because an 11-4 Bears team or a 10-4-1 Packers team would be uncatchable by an 8-7 Lions team.
However, if the two teams tie and the Lions lose, both the Packers and Bears would clinch a playoff spot—and that would eliminate the Lions from postseason contention. Why?
Well, that would move the Bears to 10-4-1 and the Packers to 9-4-2. Because a tie counts as a half-win, half-loss when it comes to win percentage, the equivalent of those records are:
- Bears: 10.5-4.5
- Packers: 10-5
With the Lions at 8-7 in this scenario, the best record they could possibly get to would be 10-7. That wouldn’t catch the Bears, and it would only tie the Packers, who have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Detroit thanks to their series sweep.
The only other team the Lions could catch in the playoff race is the San Francisco 49ers, who are 10-4. If San Francisco loses all three games, they would also fall to 10-7. However, the 49ers have already locked up the tiebreaker against the Lions, because they are 8-2 in conference play, while the Lions are just 5-5. Detroit’s best possible conference record is 7-5, while the 49ers can do no worse than 8-4.
So in this rare instance, the Bears, Packers, and 49ers would all be uncatchable and the Lions would be out before Christmas.
The TL;DR version:
If:
- Bears and Packers tie… AND
- Lions lose to Steelers
… the Lions are eliminated from the playoffs in Week 16.
But outside of that result, the Lions will still be in the hunt in Week 17.
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