The Rams hold the top seed in the NFC with four games remaining, starting with Sunday’s matchup against the Detroit Lions. What does L.A. need to have happen to keep the 1-seed going into their Thursday night game against the Seahawks? And what do they need to have happen to avoid falling into the 5, 6, or even 7 seed if they lose?
They almost certainly need to beat the Lions for that to happen because the top of the NFC is so tight.
In a complete disaster situation, the Rams could even be out of the playoffs entirely less than a week from today.
Rams keep the 1-seed if:
The Rams beat the Lions
Simple. If the Rams win and improve to 11-3, they will have the 1-seed no matter what else happens.
Rams lose, but Seahawks lose, Packers lose, Bears lose, 49ers lose
If the Rams lose, they need a smorgasbord of upsets to retain the top seed.
If the Rams fall to 10-4, then any of Seattle (vs Colts with Philip Rivers), Green Bay (vs Broncos), Chicago (vs Browns), or even San Francisco (vs Titans) can swoop in and claim the top spot with a win.
So in other words, the Rams can’t afford to lose to the Lions if they want to be the 1-seed going into Thursday.
Rams fall to a wild card spot if:
Rams lose, Seahawks win or 49ers win
If L.A. loses and Seattle wins, then the Seahawks take over first place in the NFC West. If both teams lose and the 49ers win, then San Francisco takes over first place.
Remember way back when I wrote that if the Rams had tied the 49ers instead of losing in OT, they’d hold an advantage later in the season? Yeah, this is that. L.A. would be in a more secure position right now if they were 10-2-1 instead of 10-3. That’s just facts. Especially because that tie would be against a division foe that has now almost caught up to first place.
In other words there’s a good chance that if the Rams lose this game that they will also lose their position in first place in the NFC West. They can regain it with a win on Thursday (unless the 49ers keep winning).
Rams drop to the 2-seed if:
Rams lose, Seahawks and 49ers lose
In the off-chance that all three NFC West teams lose and one of the Packers or Bears wins, then the Rams just move down to the 2-seed instead of the 5-seed.
There’s no chance of being the 3-seed or 4-seed after this weekend, even if the Eagles win. They’d only be 9-5.
Rams drop to 6 or 7-seed if:
Rams lose, Seahawks win, 49ers win, Bears win, Packers win
There’s actually a chance that not only could the Rams fall from 1 to 5, they could fall from 1 to 7.
In a disaster situation where L.A. loses but all their rivals win, the Rams could drop below the 49ers and even the Bears too. They’d be a 7th place 10-4 team.
In that scenario, the Rams could potentially even be out of the playoff picture entirely less than a week from now:
- If the Rams lose to Detroit, then the Lions would only trail them by1 game with a head-to-head tiebreak advantage
- If the Rams lose to the Seahawks, and Detroit beats the Steelers, the Lions would jump over the Rams
So yes. One week from now, the Rams could either have a huge lead for the 1-seed or be out of the NFC playoff picture entirely.
The stakes are high. Higher than you may have thought a minute ago.
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