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Same-game parlays (SGPs) let you combine multiple bets from a single game into one ticket, increasing the potential payout if your game script hits. Our SGP picks are built around data-driven narratives — how a matchup is likely to unfold, which players are best positioned to benefit and where the edges lie.

This week, we’re also leaning on the new PFF Player Prop Tool, available exclusively for PFF+ members. It highlights the props with the highest probability of success, surfaces matchup insights that NFL teams themselves track and syncs with sportsbooks in real time, so you always know where the best number is.

Here are our top SGP picks for Week 15, each tied to a clear story the data suggests could play out.

Shedeur Sanders finds WR Isaiah Bond deep downfield en route to a big passing day

The Bears’ pass defense has struggled all season, but their biggest issue has been defending the deep ball — even after getting healthier in the secondary.

Over the past month, Chicago has allowed the fourth-highest explosive-play rate, driven in part by a defense that ranks fourth in the deep-attempt rate allowed.

Isaiah Bond has emerged as the Browns’ primary deep threat, leading the team in average depth of target while also posting strong separation metrics that point toward looming production.

Shedeur Sanders has thrown deep at one of the highest rates in the NFL and ranks top-10 in deep accuracy. Against a Bears pass rush that has struggled to generate pressure, that connection sets up well — with a few downfield strikes to Bond serving as the clearest path to a big passing day for Cleveland.

SGP Build: 180-1 on DraftKings

• QB Shedeur Sanders: 280+ passing yards
• WR Isaiah Bond: 80+ receiving yards
• Cleveland Browns: Moneyline

Jalen Waddle excels against the Steelers’ man coverage

The Steelers have been one of the NFL’s most man-heavy defenses, ranking top five in man coverage rate both on the season and in recent weeks. And as we often see, man coverage tends to amplify talent disparities more than zone, where the better players are far more likely to win their matchups.

Jaylen Waddle has been dominant against man coverage, averaging nearly 3.0 yards per route run with excellent separation numbers, which helps explain why he’s targeted on nearly one-third of his routes versus man.

He now draws a Steelers defense that allows a top-10 separation rate and doesn’t have a single cornerback ranking in the top half of the league by PFF grade.

While Miami has leaned run-heavy, this is the most man-heavy defense they’ve faced in weeks, and with the market fully pricing in a ground-centric approach, there’s a strong case for Miami to lean into the pass — with that volume flowing through Waddle.

SGP Build: 65-1 on DraftKings

• QB Tua Tagovailoa: 280+ passing yards
• WR Jayeln Waddle: 120+ receiving yards
• Miami Dolphins: -3.5

Stroud draws an excellent matchup against a Cardinals defense

As discussed in our matchups column, Stroud draws an excellent matchup against a Cardinals defense that hasn’t posted a single game with a disruption rate above 33% over the past month.

Stroud has been excellent when undisturbed, ranking inside the top 10 in EPA per play. The issue has been volume — he’s faced disruption on nearly 50% of his dropbacks this season, one of the highest rates in the league.

More importantly, his play style changes dramatically when disruption is removed. Stroud’s average depth of target jumps by more than two yards — well above league average — and his deep throws generate the sixth-most EPA of any quarterback in the NFL.

With Houston’s defense positioned to overwhelm Arizona’s offensive line, this sets up a spot where the Texans can control the game and Stroud can thrive as an aggressive, efficient downfield passer against a defense that struggles to disrupt.

SGP Build: 24-1 on DraftKings

• QB CJ Stroud: 300+ passing yards & under 31.5 attempts