The NFL is inching closer and closer to the start of the postseason. Week 15 brings us to the final four weeks of the regular season, with teams all vying for a position in the playoff brackets. How do the AFC and NFC playoff pictures stand and what teams can clinch or be eliminated this week? We break down the current situation from across the league.
We also bring back the Miami Dolphins rooting guide. While the Dolphins started the year 1-6 and looked like a team in contention for the league’s worst record, they have turned things around late in the year and somehow clawed their way back into postseason consideration. The hole they dug themselves to start the year makes a postseason berth unlikely, but they still have a chance and can see those chances continue to grow this week.
AFC playoff picture
1 – Denver Broncos (11-2, AFC West leader)
2 – New England Patriots (11-2, AFC East leader)
3 – Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4, AFC South leader)
4 – Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6, AFC North leader)
5 – Los Angeles Chargers (9-4, Wildcard 1)
6 – Buffalo Bills (9-4, Wildcard 2)
7 – Houston Texans (8-5, Wildcard 3)
Indianapolis Colts (8-5)
Baltimore Ravens (6-7)
Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)
Miami Dolphins (6-7)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)
Eliminated:
New York Jets (3-10)
Cleveland Browns (3-10)
Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)
Tennessee Titans (2-11)
AFC playoff seeding tiebreakers
- Broncos over Patriots based on AFC record (7-2 vs. 6-2)
- Chargers over Bills based on AFC record (7-2 vs. 6-3)
- Texans over Colts based on head-to-head results
- Ravens over Chiefs and Dolphins based on AFC record (4-5 vs. 3-5 vs. 3-6)
- Chiefs over Dolphins based on AFC record (3-5 vs. 3-6)
- Jets over Browns based on head-to-head results
- Raiders over Titans based on head-to-head results
AFC playoff clinching scenarios
Denver Broncos
Broncos clinch a playoff berth with:
- Broncos win OR
- Broncos tie and Chargers loss OR
- Broncos tie and Jaguars loss OR
- Broncos tie and Texans loss/tie OR
- Broncos tie and Colts loss/tie OR
- Texans loss/tie and Colts loss OR
- Colts loss/tie and Texans tie
New England Patriots
Patriots clinch the AFC East division title with:
- Patriots win
Patriots clinch a playoff berth with:
- Patriots win OR
- Patriots tie and Chargers loss OR
- Patriots tie and Texans loss/tie OR
- Patriots tie and Colts loss/tie OR
- Patriots tie and Jaguars loss OR
- Texans loss/tie and Colts loss OR
- Colts loss/tie and Texans tie
AFC playoff elimination scenarios
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals eliminated from the playoffs with:
- Bengals loss OR
- Bengals tie and Steelers win
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins eliminated from the playoffs with:
- Dolphins loss and Bills win/tie and Texans win/tie OR
- Dolphins loss and Bills win/tie and Colts win/tie OR
- Dolphins loss and Texans win and Colts win OR
- Dolphins tie and Bills win and Jaguars win/tie and Chargers win/tie and Colts win/tie and Texans win OR
- Colts tie and Bills win and Jaguars win/tie and Chargers win/tie and Colts win and Texans tie
Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs eliminate from the playoffs with:
- Chiefs loss and Bills win/tie and Jaguars win/tie and Texans win OR
- Chiefs loss and Bills win/tie and Jaguars win/tie and Colts win OR
- Chiefs loss and Bills win/tie and Jaguars win/tie and Texans tie and Colts tie OR
- Chiefs loss/tie and one of 33 different scenarios that involve combinations of wins from multiple teams to create strength of victory/schedule scenarios (if these start to come into play, this will be updated)
NFC playoff picture
1 – Los Angeles Rams (10-3, NFC West leader)
2 – Green Bay Packers (9-3-1, NFC North leader)
3 – Philadelphia Eagles (8-5, NFC East leader)
4 – Carolina Panthers (7-6, NFC South leader)
5 – Seattle Seahawks (10-3, Wildcard 1)
6 – San Francisco 49ers (9-4, Wildcard 2)
7 – Chicago Bears (9-4, Wildcard 3)
Detroit Lions (8-5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)*
Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)
Minnesota Vikings (5-8)
Eliminated:
Atlanta Falcons (5-9)*
Arizona Cardinals (3-10)
New Orleans Saints (3-10)
Washington Commanders (3-10)
New York Giants (2-11)
*The Falcons and Buccaneers played on Thursday night, with Atlanta winning. The loss for the Buccaneers moved them from the four-seed as the NFC South leader to the ninth seed, on the outside looking in.
NFC playoff seeding tiebreakers
- Rams over Seahawks based on head-to-head results
- 49ers over Bears based on NFC record (8-2 vs. 6-3)
- Buccaneers over Cowboys based on NFC record (5-5 vs. 3-5-1)
- Cardinals and Saints over Commanders based on NFC record (3-7 vs. 3-7 vs. 1-7); Cardinals over Saints based on head-to-head results
- Saints over Commanders based on NFC record (3-7 vs. 1-7)
NFC playoff clinching scenarios
Los Angeles Rams
Rams clinch a playoff berth with:
- Rams win
NFC playoff elimination scenarios
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings eliminated from the playoffs with:
- Vikings loss/tie OR
- Bears win/tie OR
- Lions win/tie
Miami Dolphins Week 15 rooting guide
- Dolphins at Steelers (MNF): Obviously, the Dolphins need wins to make the playoffs. Root for: Dolphins
- Ravens at Bengals: This one comes down to who you think will win the AFC North, the Steelers or the Ravens. Miami giving the Steelers a loss on Monday night would open the door for the Ravens to claim the division lead. That scenario is probably the preferred path way for Miami, because they would then have the head-to-head advantage over the Steelers in a tiebreak scenario, while the Ravens hold that advantage having beaten Miami earlier this season. If you want to argue that the Ravens losing and falling behind the Dolphins is the better path, that could be a consideration here as well. Whichever way this goes, the Dolphins need that path to continue throughout the remaining three games. Root for: Coin toss, but Ravens wins would seem to be the better pathway currently.
- Cardinals at Texans: This one is straightforward. Miami needs the Texans to start picking up some losses, while the Cardinals are an NFC team that has no bearing on the Dolphins’ playoff chances. Root for: Cardinals
- Jets at Jaguars: The Colts and Texans are both trying to chase down the Jaguars for the AFC South title, a move that would push Jacksonville, who already has nine wins this year, into a playoff position, and Miami does not need to deal with that. Root for: Jets
- Chargers at Chiefs: The Dolphins only catch the Chargers if Los Angeles loses every game on their remaining schedule and Miami wins every game. While that would seem like a rooting goal, it actually is better if the Chargers pull off the win here and push Kansas City behind the Dolphins in the standings. Root for: Chargers
- Bills at Patriots: The Patriots can end the five-year AFC East title run for the Bills with a win on Sunday, but more importantly for the Dolphins, they can also drop Buffalo to 9-5, which (assuming a Miami win on Monday) would put the Bills only two games ahead of the Dolphins in the AFC East with three games to play. Miami would love to jump the Bills, making them more likely to make it to the playoffs. Root for: Patriots
- Packers at Broncos: There are not any actual playoff implications for the Dolphins in this game, but given the game above roots for the Patriots, rooting for Denver to hold on to the top spot in the AFC playoff picture feels right. Root for: Broncos
- Colts at Seahawks: Philip Rivers is returning for the Colts, despite also being a semi-finalist for the Hall of Fame this year, because injuries have decimated their quarterback position. A collapse from Indianapolis would be the best thing that could happen for Miami, given the Colts dismantled the Dolphins in Week 1. Root for: Seahawks
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