• Sam Darnold trails only Jordan Love in EPA per play on dropbacks with a coverage mistake, generating nearly +0.75 EPA per play in those situations. He now draws a Colts secondary ravaged by injuries that has posted a league-worst 28% perfect coverage rate over the past month.

• Stroud has been excellent when undisturbed, ranking inside the top 10 in EPA per play from a clean pocket. And that’s what makes this matchup with Arizona so appealing. A Cardinals defense ravaged by injuries hasn’t posted a single game over the past month with a disruption rate above 33%. With far cleaner looks than he typically sees, Stroud should be operating in far more favorable conditions.

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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.

Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the markets most suited to a given thesis or angle.

Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold cooks the Indianapolis Colts secondary

A PFF study from the summer of 2022 highlighted how coverage functions as a weak-link system, where a single breakdown can heavily dictate offensive success. Conversely, when coverage holds up across the board, sustaining offense becomes extremely difficult.

While leaguewide averages are useful, they often fail to account for specific players, traits or matchups that consistently outperform those baselines. Sam Darnold is one such outlier, as he has been especially dominant at capitalizing on coverage mistakes.

Darnold trails only Jordan Love in EPA per play on dropbacks with a coverage mistake, generating nearly +0.75 EPA per play in those situations. He now draws a Colts secondary ravaged by injuries that has posted a league-worst 28% perfect coverage rate over the past month.

When you pair that with a Seattle defense that ranks first in disruption rate, yards allowed per dropback and perfect coverage rate, the matchup heavily favors Seattle. And now that they will officially be teeing off against a 44-year-old Philip Rivers at quarterback, this sets up as a spot where Seattle can impose its will, making Seahawks spreads, alternate lines and SGPs built around game control especially attractive.

C.J. Stroud dominates against an injury-depleted Cardinals defense

Closely related to perfect coverage is the concept of disruption, which captures plays where a defense either holds up in coverage or generates pressure that forces the quarterback off his intended read.

As with perfect coverage, leaguewide averages are useful, but they often fail to account for specific players, traits or matchups that consistently behave as outliers.

C.J. Stroud is one of the clearest examples of that sensitivity. He remains one of the NFL’s most effective quarterbacks from a clean pocket, but his performance drops off sharply when defenses can disrupt his timing and reads.

Stroud has been excellent when undisturbed, ranking inside the top 10 in EPA per play from a clean pocket. The issue has been volume — he’s faced disruption on nearly 50% of his dropbacks this season, one of the highest rates in the league.

That’s what makes this matchup with Arizona so appealing. A Cardinals defense ravaged by injuries hasn’t posted a single game over the past month with a disruption rate above 33%. With far cleaner looks than he typically sees, Stroud should be operating in far more favorable conditions.

I’ll be on Stroud overs, his alternate lines and Texans alts, betting on Houston to control this game through the air as Stroud faces less disruption than he’s accustomed to.