The Bengals are officially in do-or-die territory. Realistically, their playoff window has already slammed shut, but they’re not mathematically eliminated yet. In some bizarre alternate timeline, an 8-9 Bengals team could still host a double-digit-win opponent on Wild Card Weekend.
But if they lose on Sunday when the Ravens come to town, that timeline collapses. Their season flat-lines, and the only thing left to play for is pride.
Here are the matchups to watch:
Ja’Marr Chase vs. All the Attention
With Tee Higgins likely out due to a concussion, Chase will once again be the focal point of the offense—and the Ravens know it. Cincinnati still has a solid supporting cast in Andrei Iosivas, Mike Gesicki, and Mitchell Tinsley, but none of them command the gravity that Higgins does.
Baltimore is going to devote most of its secondary to slowing Chase, and that’s fair considering he’s the best receiver in football. The Ravens doubled him constantly the last time these teams met…and Chase still posted seven catches for 110 yards. He’s used to escaping double coverage. He might have to do it again.
The Other Receivers vs. Single Coverage
Any time the Ravens aren’t in zone, Chase will be doubled—guaranteed. That means whoever lines up opposite him will see single coverage all afternoon. Iosivas and Tinsley have to win those reps to expand Joe Burrow’s menu of options.
This also applies to Gesicki, Noah Fant, and Tanner Hudson. With Baltimore’s corners and safeties glued to Chase, the tight ends could see favorable matchups against linebackers. Even without Higgins, Burrow still has more than enough firepower around him. But someone other than Chase has to consistently punish the Ravens for tilting their defense.
Bengals’ Defensive Front vs. Derrick Henry
In their first meeting, Cincinnati largely kept Henry in check—he carried just 10 times but averaged six yards per attempt. The Bengals seized control early, forcing Baltimore to abandon the run.
The Ravens won’t want to repeat that script. Henry is still one of the league’s premier backs, and Baltimore may try to shorten the game and keep Burrow and Chase watching from the sideline. Al Golden’s defense has taken a step forward, but they’ll need to play with the same discipline and physicality they showed on Thanksgiving.
Bengals’ LB/DBs vs. Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely
Even with their defensive improvement, the Bengals continue to struggle against tight ends. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox ran free in Buffalo. Andrews and Likely combined for nearly 150 yards in Week 13. It’s a trend.
With DJ Turner locking down receivers at a near–Pro Bowl level, opposing quarterbacks often pivot to their tight ends, who find themselves matched up on inexperienced linebackers or safeties. Andrews and Likely form one of the league’s best tight end tandems—exactly the type of duo that has caused Cincinnati fits all season.
Zac Taylor vs. John Harbaugh
Harbaugh is one of the NFL’s longest-tenured coaches, yet his postseason resume in recent years has fueled growing criticism. Taylor has the playoff pedigree—Super Bowl appearance, back-to-back deep runs—but those were 2021 and 2022. The NFL is a ruthless “what have you done for me lately?” business.
Neither coach is literally coaching for his job on Sunday, but both are feeling real pressure. The noise for change has grown steadily in both cities.
If Baltimore wins, their playoff odds rise to 44%. If they lose, they fall to 14%.
If Cincinnati wins, their odds climb to 5%. If they lose… they’re done.
In other words: this game has the potential to catalyze a coaching shakeup in either Baltimore or Cincinnati.
What matchups will you be keeping an eye on?
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