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NFL Week 15 Preview: Schedule, storylines, matchups to watch and betting spreads

We’re diving into every matchup in Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season — including key storylines, matchups to watch, and injury news. The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers kick things off on Thursday Night Football.


NFL Week 15 Preview: Schedule, storylines, matchups to watch and betting spreads

NFL Week 15 Preview: Schedule, storylines, matchups to watch and betting spreads

  • The Rams and Lions go head-to-head: Two of the top teams in the NFC face off in a playoff-worthy matchup.
  • Lamar Jackson vs. Joe Burrow II: The two AFC juggernaut quarterbacks go to battle for the second time in three weeks in Week 15.
  • Get PFF+ for 30% off: Use promo code HOLIDAY30 to unlock the PFF Player Prop Tool, Premium Stats, fantasy dashboards, the PFF Mock Draft Simulator, industry-leading fantasy rankings and much more — everything you need to win your season.

Estimated Reading Time: 30 minutes

We’re diving into every matchup in Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season — including key storylines, matchups to watch, and injury news. The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers kick things off on Thursday Night Football.

Click here to jump to a game:

ATL@TB | CLE@CHI | BAL@CIN | ARZ@HOU | NYJ@JAX | LAC@KC | BUF@NE | WAS@NYG | LV@PHI | GB@DEN | DET@LAR | CAR@NO | IND@SEA | TEN@SF | MIN@DAL | MIA@PIT


Storyline of the game: Can the Buccaneers’ offense finally get right?

The Buccaneers’ offense (66.6 grade; 26th) is cold. Since their Week 7 loss to the Lions, the Buccaneers are only 30th in success rate and EPA per play, and have lost five of their last seven games. Tampa Bay has shown few signs of getting out of its funk, even as the roster rounds into full health. Baker Mayfield (69.3 grade; 24th)’s play has dipped, and a shoulder injury has not served him well, but it’s time to dig in.

The Week 14 loss to the Saints on home turf has let the Panthers into the race for the NFC South. If the Buccaneers are going to bring home the division for the fifth season in a row, it’ll need to be the offense that steps up in the big moments.

The return of Bucky Irving (66.1 grade; 44th) has aided a rushing attack that’s been 12th in success rate over the last two weeks, but a disconnect between Mayfield and his receivers remains. A performance against the Falcons in Week 15 can be the start of the turnaround.

Matchup to watch: Falcons CB A.J. Terrell vs Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka

Buccaneers rookie Emeka Egbuka (66.6 grade; 60th) started the season hot, but like the rest of the offense, has dropped off in recent weeks. Since Week 7, Egbuka has caught just 27 of 67 targets and suffered five drops, the second-most in that span, while compiling a 57.9 overall PFF grade.

Egbuka will be up against it in Week 15, facing off with Falcons corner A.J. Terrell (58.1 grade; 71st), who has allowed just 276 yards in 2025. Terrell has tallied seven pass breakups and averages 16.6 coverage snaps per reception, the 10th-highest among corners. He’s a tough proposition for any wide receiver, but especially one who’s down on his luck.

Additional News

Storyline of the game: How will the Bears respond to their Week 14 setback?

The Bears’ loss to the Packers in Week 14 is a step in the wrong direction and reduces their playoff odds to 64%, but their ability to fight and stick around against a good team is telling. They’d be a worthy postseason team in 2025. But, their response against a good Browns defense (86.9 grade; 2nd) in the freezing cold in Week 15 will be just as telling.

The Bears have the Lions breathing down their neck in the NFC wild-card race, but are still within reach of the top spot in the NFC North. The offense has played well in recent weeks, and Caleb Williams (72.1 grade; 16th) is improving by the game. But the Browns’ defense is a challenge, and the Bears’ loss makes life even harder.

Any time Browns star Myles Garrett (93.2 grade; 1st) is on the field, he’s going to be highlighted. Garrett has been on an all-time run in 2025 as he bears down on the single-season sack record. But, he had his quietest game since Week 7 against the Titans in Week 14, registering two pressures and a sack.

Still, Garrett is fifth in total pressures (64) and will have to lock back in against Bears tackle Darnell Wright (77.6 grade; 17th) in Week 15. Wright has the 13th-lowest pressure rate allowed among tackles (4.4%) and has permitted just two sacks all season. Wright is also one of the best run-blocking tackles in the league (80.0 run-blocking grade; 12th), and the Bears are second in rushing success rate and EPA per rush.

Garrett isn’t going to have too many opportunities where he can pin his ears back, so his effectiveness against the run is vital against the Bears.

Additional News

Storyline of the game: What’s wrong with the Ravens’ offense?

A Week 14 loss to the Steelers punted the Ravens out of the top spot in the AFC North, and as of right now, they don’t look like a team ready to make some noise in the playoffs. Since Lamar Jackson (65.8 grade; 29th) returned to the lineup, the Ravens are 15th in success rate, and were held back by numerous mistakes against the Steelers.

Jackson is starting to look healthier and is using his legs more, but isn’t making the same big plays with his arm. His big-time throw rate is at a career-low 2.1%, and his turnover-worthy play rate is his highest since 2021 (3.25%). On top of that, the offensive line isn’t playing its best ball (23rd in pass-blocking grade, 10th in run-blocking grade), and the receiving room is fifth in drops since Week 10.

Mistakes are costing the Ravens, but they face the Bengals’ defense in Week 15. There’s a chance to change the narrative and get back in control of their playoff destiny, but the woes have to stop.

Matchup to watch: Ravens’ pass rush vs. Bengals’ offensive line

In a surprising turn of events, the often-maligned Bengals’ offensive line has been playing with its hair on fire in recent weeks. Since their Week 10 bye, the Bengals are ninth in pressure-rate allowed (9.7%), and the offense is eighth in rushing success rate. The starting five is finding some cohesion as a unit and creating holes in the running game, while surrendering just one sack since Week 10.

The Ravens’ pass rush has been a disappointment in 2025. Baltimore is 31st in pressure rate (29.6%), and dead last in pressure rate when rushing just four defenders (23.9%).

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (87.0 grade) has looked sharp since returning to the lineup, and if he’s given a clean pocket, he can pick apart any defense. The Ravens need someone to step up as a pass rusher, but it hasn’t happened yet. The defense could be in trouble in the trenches.

Additional News
  • Bengals EDGE Trey Hendrickson is expected to undergo core-muscle surgery and will face a six-week recovery, likely ending his season.
  • WR Tee Higgins (concussion) is questionable.

Storyline of the game: Can the Texans’ defense shut down another competent offense?

With the offense rounding into some form in the last couple of weeks, the Texans are starting to look like a team to be feared in the AFC. The defense (82.4 grade; 3rd) has been the force multiplier in 2025, though, and leads the NFL in EPA per play allowed. In the last three weeks, the Texans have shut down the Bills, Colts and Chiefs, holding all three offenses (all top 10 units in EPA per play) to under 20 points.

The Cardinals’ offense (69.3 grade; 21st) has been solid with Jacoby Brissett (70.7 grade; 21st) under center, and is 11th in success rate since Brissett took over in Week 6. It hasn’t translated to wins: The Cardinals have lost 10 of their last 11 games, but they’ve still been competitive for the most part.

The Texans are in pursuit of a playoff spot and now have a 92% chance of making the postseason. The best defense in the NFL is going to lock in again.

Since Week 11, no receiver has more targets (55), catches (39), or yards (481) than Cardinals wideout Michael Wilson (73.5 grade; 31st). In the absence of Marvin Harrison Jr. (69.5 grade; 46th), Wilson has stepped up and helped carry the passing offense alongside Brissett and Trey McBride (79.7 grade; 6th), earning a feature role in the offense. Wilson hasn’t been schemed wide-open either; he’s 14-of-17 on contested catches over the last four weeks and is playing the best football of his career.

Even if Harrison is back in the lineup, Wilson has earned the trust of Brissett, but he faces a tough test in the form of Texans corner Derek Stingley (63.0 grade; 50th). Stingley has been excellent in coverage, allowing just 27 receptions on 52 targets, and is 11th in snaps per reception. His 15.3 yards per reception permitted is the ninth-highest among cornerbacks. Stingley was susceptible to yielding the rare big play early in the season, but he’s still one of the NFL’s five best cornerbacks.

Additional News

Storyline of the game: Can Trevor Lawrence build on a career performance?

The Jaguars were dominant in Week 14, defeating the Colts 36-19 to take full control of the AFC South. The win also aligned with one of the best games of Trevor Lawrence’s (75.1 grade; 11th) career, with the former No. 1 pick completing 17-of-30 passes for 244 yards and two touchdowns, earning a 90.2 overall PFF grade. In the last few weeks, the connection between Lawrence and the rest of the offense has blossomed as Liam Coen’s group looks more capable of problem-solving.

The Jaguars are now 9-4 with a 97% chance of making the playoffs. If Lawrence can get hot at the right time and continue to ascend in Coen’s offense, the Jaguars have as good of a chance as any to make some noise in January. But consistency is key for Lawrence, and attaining it against a struggling Jets defense (61.4 grade; 21st) is a strong place to start.

Jets cornerback Brandon Stephens (72.6 grade; 17th) has been a rare bright spot for the team’s defense in 2025. Stephens has allowed 9.7 yards per reception, and his 14% forced incompletion rate is top 40 among all cornerbacks — though Stephens has surrendered six touchdowns in coverage.

He’ll be tasked with facing Jaguars wideout Brian Thomas Jr. (64.5 grade; 68th), who has settled back into the lineup since returning from injury in Week 13. Thomas caught three of six targets for 87 yards in Week 14 on an 80.3 overall PFF grade, and has effectively found his role as a deep threat outside receiver. If Lawrence pushes the envelope as he did against the Colts — completing 4-of-6 passes for 132 yards on passes of 20 yards or more — Thomas could have a strong game.

Additional News
  • Jaguars T Walker Little (concussion) is questionable.
  • Jets WR Garrett Wilson (knee) is eligible to come off IR in Week 15, but Jets head coach Aaron Glenn is unsure if it’ll happen this week.

Storyline of the game: Can the Chiefs make a final stand?

The Chiefs’ 20-10 loss to the Texans in Week 14 dropped their season record to 6-7, and their playoff odds to 13%. There hasn’t been this much adversity in the Patrick Mahomes era, and the Chiefs are on track to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2014. The wild-card remains the team’s only route to the playoffs, but Kansas City will likely have to win every remaining game and hope that results around the league go their way.

It starts with the Chargers in Week 15. The Chargers have won two games in a row and are 9-4, but are struggling on offense. Justin Herbert (80.9 grade; 7th) is playing through a hand injury and has compiled a 48.3 overall PFF grade since Week 10, the second-lowest among quarterbacks. In that time, he’s been pressured on 46.2% of his dropbacks.

The Chargers’ defense is excellent and could pose questions for the Chiefs. Nothing less than a win will do for the Chiefs in the most desperate of scenarios.

Matchup to watch: Chargers’ pass rush vs. Chiefs T Esa Pole

The Chiefs lost tackle Wanya Morris (57.1 grade) to a knee injury on the first offensive play of the game in Week 13, and third-string tackle Esa Pole had to step in for his first career snaps. Pole played well enough, allowing three pressures and earning a 67.5 PFF pass-blocking grade against an excellent defense. But the rookie is still an unknown quantity, and that means the Chargers will likely look to test him with an array of pass rushers.

Chargers edge rusher Tuli Tuipulotu (63.7 grade; 67th) leads the team with 56 pressures and 10 sacks, but Khalil Mack (76.9 grade; 24th) and Odafe Oweh (69.7 grade; 40th) can pressure off the edge as well. Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter could look to throw some stunts and blitzes to muddy the waters for Pole, and to get Mahomes uncomfortable in the pocket. 

Additional News

Storyline of the game: Can the Patriots all but seal the AFC East?

The Week 15 matchup between the Bills and the Patriots is one of the biggest games of the season to date, and can effectively decide the fate of the AFC East. The Patriots are the overwhelming favorites for the division with an 11-2 record, but the Bills can move to within a game if they knock off the division leaders in Foxborough. However, the Patriots currently have a 77% chance of winning the AFC East for the first time since 2019, and a win would effectively hand them the division.

New England has won 10 straight showdowns dating back to Week 4, and vanquished the Bills 23-20 in Week 5 — their biggest victory of the season. Quarterback Drake Maye (87.1 grade; 4th) has been playing exceptionally well, but the Patriots have to navigate keeping momentum coming out of a bye week. Meanwhile, the Bills ripped off a great win in the snow in Week 14.

Matchup to watch: Bills WR Khalil Shakir vs. Patriots CB Marcus Jones

The Bills’ passing game isn’t beholden to one target. Josh Allen (85.8 grade; 5th) likes to spread the ball around the yard and target different receivers, though his connection with receiver Khalil Shakir (72.0 grade; 39th) stands out. Shakir leads the team in catches (57) and receiving yards (585) and is second in yards per route run (1.72) behind Dalton Kincaid.

Shakir mostly plays out of the slot and will have a tough matchup against Patriots corner Marcus Jones (68.7 grade; 29th). Jones leads New England with three interceptions and has allowed 33 receptions for 345 yards in coverage. He’ll play sticky coverage and gamble on plays, which could lead to a big play or two — Jones has given up six touchdowns in coverage in 2025 — but he’ll be a key piece of the game plan in a huge AFC East battle.

Additional News

Storyline of the game: Two teams looking toward the draft

The Commanders and Giants have different ambitions in 2025. Washington aimed to improve on a season where it made the NFC championship game, while the Giants hoped to build a foundation for the future. Heading into Week 15, the Commanders are 3-10 and failed in their pursuits, but the Giants have found some hope with rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart (70.9 grade; 20th).

Both teams are losing games and comfortably on pace for top-10 picks. With little to play for between now and the end of the season, their attention may be slightly turning toward the draft.

Matchup to watch: Commanders WR Terry McLaurin vs. Giants CB Cor’Dale Flott

Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin (79.7 grade; 15th) missed most of the first half of the season due to injury, but has stepped back into the lineup in the last two weeks and made a noticeable impact on the offense — catching 10 passes for 137 yards and a touchdown, earning a 76.0 overall PFF grade. Whether it’s Jayden Daniels (74.9 grade; 12th) or Marcus Mariota (71.1 grade; 19th) under center, McLaurin is going to get open and demand the ball — though Giants corner Cor’Dale Flott (68.3 grade; 34th) will look to limit those opportunities.

Flott leads the Giants in PFF coverage grade (70.9), allowing 32 catches for 403 yards on 58 targets, and has a team-leading seven pass breakups on the year. His 55.2% completion rate when targeted is also the lowest on the team.

The former third-round pick is a rangy corner with strong performances against some quality receivers in 2025. He’ll look to make the same impact against McLaurin.

Additional News

Storyline of the game: Are the Eagles in a rut?

The Eagles have lost three consecutive games and are in danger of heading into the postseason with a lot of questions and a lack of answers. They’re 16th in EPA per play on offense and have struggled to consistently meld the passing and rushing attacks together to create a functional down-to-down offense. It looked somewhat better against the Chargers in Week 14, but Jalen Hurts’ (77.7 grade; 8th) five turnovers hurt their chances.

Right now, the Eagles are just failing to get over the hump — something that’s not been a problem too often for the reigning Super Bowl champions. The defense has the talent and the guile to bring opposing offenses into the mud, but with as much skill as there is on the offense, Philadelphia should be rolling opponents — but it hasn’t.

The Eagles play the 2-11 Raiders in Week 15, a matchup that presents the perfect opportunity to get a win back on the board.

Matchup to watch: Raiders CB Eric Stokes vs. Eagles WR A.J. Brown

In the last four weeks, Eagles receiver A.J. Brown (79.3 grade; 16th) has rekindled his role in the Eagles’ offense, reminding the NFL that he’s still one of the premier receivers in the league. Brown has caught 31 of 47 targets for 391 yards and three touchdowns in the last four weeks, registering an 82.8 overall PFF grade in the process. After a slow start to the season, Brown is a feature part of the Eagles’ attack and will look to build on his streak of three straight games with 100 receiving yards.

He’ll look to do it against Raiders corner Eric Stokes (71.9 grade; 18th), who has had a strong first season in Las Vegas. Stokes has surrendered just 23 catches for 238 yards in coverage, and averages 18.3 snaps per reception. The former Packer has four pass breakups and won’t go down without a fight against Brown.

Additional News
  • Eagles T Lane Johnson (foot) is questionable after missing the last three games.
  • Eagles DI Jalen Carter (shoulders) is questionable.

Storyline of the game: Can the Broncos pass another big test?

The Broncos are 11-2 and have won a league-best 10 straight games. In the process, they have put to bed the Bengals, Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs and Texans — all of whom are currently in the playoffs, or are playoff-hopeful teams. However, the Broncos may not have gotten the credit they believe they’re due. The defense is the driving force of the team, while the offense is 13th in EPA per play and has improved in recent weeks.

A win against the 9-3-1 Green Bay Packers in Week 15 would help strengthen the Broncos’ growing case as potential contenders. The Packers are considered one of the NFL’s best units from top to bottom and are second in EPA offensive per play. The Broncos enter the game as home underdogs, but could go one step closer to home-field advantage throughout the postseason if they pull off their biggest triumph of the season.

Matchup to watch: Packers QB Jordan Love vs. Broncos’ pass blitz

Packers quarterback Jordan Love (89.9 grade; 2nd) has been on a heater, earning a 93.3 overall PFF grade over the last month of the season. One area where Love has really excelled is against the blitz. The Green Bay gunslinger has been blitzed on 35.9% of his dropbacks in 2025, but has completed 62.5% of his passes for 1,163 yards, 12 touchdowns and an interception in those situations — good for a league-best 91.1 grade.

A big part of the Broncos’ game plan on defense is based on blitzing opposing quarterbacks. Denver blitzes at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL (39.0%) and is fifth in pressure rate (40.6%). 

That strategy will come in jeopardy against the Packers. The Green Bay offense routinely has answers for blitzes, and Love is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL when sending heat.

Additional News
  • Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) is questionable after suffering the injury vs. the Bears in Week 14.
  • Packers EDGE Lukas Van Ness (foot) is questionable.

Storyline of the game: A playoff-worthy matchup

The Rams have been the standout team in the NFC in 2025, and lead the conference with a 10-3 record after dismantling the Cardinals in Week 14. Their Week 15 battle against the Lions provides a much stiffer test, as Detroit is 8-5 and chasing the final wild-card spot in the NFC. Their current playoff odds are at 53%, while a win for the Rams pushes them one step closer to the NFC West crown.

This matchup is what meaningful December football is all about. Two excellent teams on both sides of the ball, battling it out to further their ambitions. Each offense is top-10 in EPA per play with stars all over the field — this has the initial makings of a game of the year contender.

Matchup to watch: Lions T Penei Sewell vs. Rams EDGE Jared Verse

Lions tackle Penei Sewell (96.0 grade; 1st) is playing out of his skin in 2025. His 98.2 PFF run-blocking grade is on pace to be the highest since PFF grading began in 2006, and Sewell has allowed just 15 pressures and one sack in pass protection — no tackle has been playing at a higher level than Sewell.

But even the elite have tough tests, and Sewell will face one against Rams stud Jared Verse (82.3 grade; 14th) in Week 15. Verse has 60 pressures (7th) and six sacks on the season, and has been a constant nuisance for opposing tackles. He’s fearless off the edge and can line up inside the tackle or as a wide nine, thanks to his blistering first step. Verse will look to make every snap count against one of the best tackles in the NFL.

Additional News

Storyline of the game: Can the Panthers pile pressure on the Buccaneers?

The Panthers were handed a lifeline on their Week 14 bye, with the Buccaneers falling to the Saints — thereby opening a small window for the Panthers to challenge for the NFC South crown. A win against the 3-10 Saints would move the Panthers to 8-6, guaranteeing their best record since 2017.

The Buccaneers play on Thursday night, and could also push the intensity on the Panthers if they win. However, a Buccaneers loss and a Panthers victory would give Carolina total control of the NFC South. There’s pressure all around the division.

The Panthers’ offense has taken a step forward in 2025, even though it might still struggle to consistently be a league-average unit. However, with rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan (77.8 grade; 20th) in the lineup, Bryce Young (64.7 grade; 30th) has a target he can consistently rely on. McMillan has caught 57 passes for 826 yards and four touchdowns in 2025, and is averaging 1.92 yards per route run — 21st among all receivers.

The rookie is comfortably on pace to eclipse 1,000 yards in his rookie season, and will have a favorable matchup in Week 15 against the Saints’ Kool-Aid McKinstry (64.1 grade; 47th). The 2024 second-round pick has made some splash plays in New Orleans’ defense, with three interceptions and seven pass breakups on the year. But, he has allowed 554 yards and seven touchdowns in coverage. Opposing quarterbacks have picked on McKinstry, and if he’s tasked with covering McMillan in Week 15, he’ll have a lot of work to do.

Additional News
  • The Panthers won’t open G Robert Hunt (biceps)’s practice window in Week 15, but are optimistic he’ll return before the end of the season.
  • Saints RB Alvin Kamara (knee/ankle) is questionable.

Indianapolis Colts vs. SeattleSeahawks (-14)

Storyline of the game: Can Philip Rivers handle the Seahawks’ defense?

The Colts lost Daniel Jones (71.7 grade; 18th) to a season-ending torn Achilles against the Jaguars in Week 14. Although rookie Riley Leonard may be ready, the Colts may turn to veteran QB Philip Rivers, who hasn’t played since 2020. Rivers could be asked to start vs. the Seahawks’ defense (79.9 grade; 5th), one of the best units in the NFL. That could be an issue for the Colts.

Rivers has been out of the league for over five years, and though there’s a debate that his arm could be fresh, he’s now 44 years old and struggled to put real zip on the ball in his last season in the league. The Colts are desperate, though. They’re 8-5 and still believe they can make the playoffs. Will Rivers help lead them there?

Matchup to watch: Colts TE Tyler Warren vs. Seahawks S Nick Emmanwori

Colts tight end Tyler Warren (68.5 grade; 23rd) and Seahawks safety Nick Emmanwori (69.2 grade; 27th) have been two of the best rookies in the NFL in 2025, and will go head-to-head in Week 15 in what will be a physical matchup.

If Rivers does start, expect him to pepper targets to Warren, who has 60 passes for 699 yards and four touchdowns this season. Warren is as reliable as they come, and his 7.1 yards after the catch per reception is third among all tight ends. Rivers will get him the ball early and often, and let his rookie tight end do the work.

At the same time, Emmanwori has seven pass breakups and surrenders just 9.5 yards per reception. The South Carolina product is going to be stuck to him like glue. Both players are physical, hard hitters. This is going to be a fun matchup if we see it.

Additional News
  • Seahawks TE Elijah Arroyo (knee) may miss the Week 15 game, according to Michael-Shawn Dugar of The Athletic.
  • Colts CB Sauce Gardner (calf) is questionable.

Storyline of the game: Can the 49ers’ offense find some momentum?

The 49ers are cruising toward the playoffs with a 9-4 record and a 92% chance of making the postseason, but it’s fair to say that there’s another level the offense can reach. Since Brock Purdy (68.7 grade; 25th) returned to the lineup, the 49ers are 17th in success rate, but have won three games in a row. Now out of their Week 14 bye, the 49ers face the struggling Titans in Week 15 and have the perfect chance to build some real momentum ahead of the playoffs.

Kyle Shanahan’s offenses are always some of the best-designed units in the NFL, especially out of the bye week. Purdy has had another week to find a little more health, and his top two playmakers — George Kittle (85.7 grade; 1st) and Christian McCaffrey (75.6 grade; 18th) — will continue to make splashes for the offense.

Matchup to watch: Titans LB Cedric Gray vs. 49ers TE George Kittle

Kittle has been playing at the top of his game since returning from injury in Week 7. Since coming back, Kittle has caught 33 passes for 371 yards and four touchdowns, compiling an 83.8 overall PFF grade. The veteran tight end is still at the top of his game as a pass-catcher and as a blocker, and that dual ability makes him the best every-down tight end in the NFL.

Titans linebacker Cedric Gray (72.9 grade; 25th) holds the third-highest grade against the run among linebackers (91.3) and boasts 46 defensive stops in 2025, third at the position. The 2024 fourth-round pick has been a bright spot against the run, but has allowed 52 receptions for 500 yards in coverage. The 49ers will likely look to utilize Kittle when matched up against Gray through the air.

Additional News

Storyline of the game: The Cowboys’ final stand

Losing to the Lions in Week 14 effectively ended the Cowboys’ hopes of making the playoffs, but the Eagles’ loss to the Chargers kept the window barely open. Heading into Week 15, the Cowboys have a 11% chance of making the playoffs, a percentage that could slightly rise if they beat the Vikings.

The Dallas offense has performed well all season and is fifth in EPA per play, but the defense’s slow start cost the team. In recent weeks, the unit has performed better, but there’s a sense that the team was too far down the garden path to truly compete once it pieced together some wins.

Downing the Eagles in Week 12 at least makes the prospect more interesting. The Cowboys have the 24th-toughest remaining schedule, and if they can beat a Vikings team with little to play for, they can mathematically keep the window open just a little longer.

Matchup to watch: Vikings’ pass blitz vs. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott

The Vikings are blitzing at an inconceivably high rate in 2025, sending more than four rushers on 62.0% of passing downs. The gap between the Vikings’ defense in first and the  Falcons’ defense in second is bigger than the space between the Falcons and Cardinals in 20th. Moreover, the Vikings are ninth in EPA per play allowed on blitz plays.

The Cowboys’ offense has handled the blitz well in 2025 and is fifth in EPA per play when teams send at least five rushers. Dak Prescott (87.2 grade; 3rd) has earned the fourth-highest grade against the blitz (85.6) in 2025, and has thrown for a league-high 1,303 yards when heated up. Can he continue to beat the blitz at a high rate, or will the Vikings’ defense get the better of another quarterback?

Additional News
  • Vikings DI Levi Drake Rodriguez (neck) is questionable.
  • Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb (concussion) is progressing well through protocol, according to head coach Brian Schottenheimer, but is questionable.

Storyline of the game: Can the Steelers’ passing offense repeat its success from Week 14?

The Steelers offense looked sharp in their 27-19 win against the Ravens in Week 14, with Aaron Rodgers (64.1 grade; 31st) completing 23-of-34 pass attempts for 284 yards and a touchdown, recording an 88.0 overall PFF grade — his highest since Week 8 of the 2022 season. Rodgers completed four passes for 152 yards when targeting 20 or more yards down the field, and that ability to create plays and stretch the field is a bonus for a Steelers offense sorely lacking that explosiveness.

The Steelers now control the AFC North, and a win against the Dolphins puts them in good standing to win the division for the first time since 2020.

Matchup to watch: Dolphins CB Rasul Douglas vs. Steelers WR D.K. Metcalf

Steelers receiver D.K. Metcalf (72.9 grade; 33rd) had one of his best games of the season in Week 14, catching 10 of 13 targets for 136 yards and two touchdowns on an 84.2 overall PFF grade — his second-highest this year. Metcalf averaged 13.6 yards per reception and caught three passes of over 20 yards for 121 total yards.

If Rodgers continues to try and push the ball downfield, he’ll look to target Metcalf, who will have Dolphins corner Rasul Douglas (77.6 grade; 5th) trailing him closely. Douglas won AFC Defensive Player of the Week in Week 14, receiving a 79.9 overall PFF grade and allowing a 0.0 passer rating. Douglas is a physical, veteran corner and is going to provide a real test for Metcalf, especially if Rodgers isn’t pushing the ball downfield.

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