• Get PFF+ for 30% off: Use promo code HOLIDAY30 to unlock the PFF Player Prop Tool, Premium Stats, fantasy dashboards, the PFF Mock Draft Simulator, industry-leading fantasy rankings and much more — everything you need to win your season.

Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors and analysts often rely on a wide array of statistics and models to gain a competitive edge. These range from basic box score stats to advanced metrics available in PFF’s Premium Stats 2.0 and models like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).

There is always room for new insights and analyses to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for an in-depth explanation of the model, my process and its advantages.

Week 14 Recap

• D.K. Metcalf: WR7 – 21.8 PPR points
• Zay Flowers: WR8 – 20.6 PPR points
• Jaylen Waddle: WR10 – 18.1 PPR points
• Jerry Jeudy: WR14 – 16.6 PPR points
• Kyle Pitts: TE6 – 15.0 PPR points
• Jordan Addison: WR28 – 10.2 PPR points
• Josh Downs: WR47 – 6.3 PPR points
• Emeka Egbuka: WR66 – 3.5 PPR points (10 targets!)

The model identified four top-15 wide receivers and five players who scored at least 15 PPR points. Emeka Egbuka leads the NFL in “inaccurate” targets with 21, and Justin Jefferson is tied for second with 16. Weekly model appearances like D.K. Metcalf and Zay Flowers are both in the top 10. 

Potential Breakouts: Week 15

PWOPR is significantly more stable than FPpG and serves as a stronger indicator of future performance. To help identify potential breakout candidates, the residual is calculated by subtracting a player’s predicted FPpG from their actual FPpG. Players with a strong PWOPR and a residual of -3.0 or lower are included on this list. Players remain on the list until one of the following conditions is met:

• They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big game
• Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG

WR D.K. Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Miami Dolphins

Metcalf has the best PWOPR in the NFL over the last four weeks and recorded his second-best game (fantasy-wise) of the year in Week 14. After earning the No. 1 PWOPR in Week 14, Metcalf amassed 12 targets and 143 yards — but after two targets inside the 10-yard line, he did not score a touchdown.

This kind of performance would normally be enough to bump a player off the list the following week. But with no touchdown and the No. 1 PWOPR, we find Metcalf again needing positive regression facing the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins allow the 11th-highest rate of open targets to wide receivers while having the 13th-ranked team PFF coverage grade. Their big weakness is their pass rush, as they rank last in team PFF pass-rush grade and bottom-10 in quick pressure rate.

As we saw in Week 14, Metcalf relies on deep throws, whereas the Dolphins permit the seventh-lowest depth of target for wide receivers. This is a neutral matchup for the Steelers and D.K. Metcalf with no obvious edges. 

WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

On the other side of the matchup we have Jaylen Waddle, who is also coming off of a fairly good game. Waddle finished with the second-best PWOPR in Week 14 and has a much more favorable showdown against this Steelers defense.

The Steelers rank average in team PFF coverage grade, top-three in team PFF pass-rush grade and top-10 in man coverage rate. Waddle’s main hindrance will be his own offense, as the Dolphins are 32nd in pass play percentage since Week 10. 

Waddle should be efficient against the man-coverage heavy Steelers, but his volume might not allow him to have a dominant day. In games where Miami is forced into a heavy passing script, expect Waddle to dominate. 

The Saints opened Week 14 with a deep shot to Chris Olave in which Tyler Shough was slightly inaccurate. After this target, and when the rain settled in, the Saints offense became much more conservative.

This Panthers matchup is neutral to slightly negative for Olave. Carolina boasts a slightly above-average team PFF coverage grade and bottom-three PFF pass-rush grade while allowing a bottom-10 rate of open targets to wide receivers. 

Both offenses rank around league-average in pass play percentage, while both defenses fall in the top seven run rate faced. If these trends hold up, this game could fly by, with both teams running the ball consistently. 

Since entering the league in 2021, Ja’Marr Chase owns a 90.8 PFF grade 2.55 yards per route run and a 25.5% THREAT against the Ravens. All are elite metrics, but none technically apply to this particular matchup. Chase enters this game coming off of the 16th-best PWOPR in Week 14 and ninth-highest PWOPR over the last month. 

The Ravens possess the 10th-best team PFF coverage grade while playing the fifth-highest rate of man coverage. Across his career, Chase sports an elite 90.6 PFF grade and 26.1% THREAT against man coverage. In 2025, he has a solid 76.4 PFF grade with an even better 28.1% THREAT. This is a good matchup, as shown in the PFF Matchup Tool below.

Although it took most of the season, Flowers finally surpassed 100 receiving yards for his second game. Similar to Metcalf, he finished with an elite PWOPR, ranking third-best for Week 14 without scoring a touchdown. These factors will allow for repeats, even when a player has a great showing. 

The Bengals present a solid matchup for Flowers, as they rank in the bottom five for both team PFF coverage grade and team PFF pass-rush grade. The biggest issue will be how the Bengals funnel targets toward the tight end position. Currently, they rank as the best team in the NFL at preventing open targets to wide receivers, preventing many opportunities for wide receivers, and are tied for No. 1 in targets allowed to the tight end position.

This pattern seems stable, as it is present over the last month and for the season. That ultimately presents challenges for Flowers in Week 15. 

As I mentioned earlier, Egbuka leads the NFL in “inaccurate” targets. For passers with at least 100 dropbacks, Mayfield is 35th in accurate throw percentage on the season. Since Week 10, oddly enough, Mayfield possesses the eighth-best accurate throw percentage, but the worst uncatchable inaccurate throw rate. 

Egbuka shares some blame, as he has earned a 67.3 PFF grade — which ranks 44th out of 58 players with at least 50 targets. The Falcons are a decent matchup to surrender some explosive plays, as they allow the second-highest EPA per play on wide receiver targets and have the eighth-worst PFF grade against wide receivers.

For whatever reason, the pair has been struggling to connect. But as Mayfield is performing well with other players, it’s just a matter of time before he and Egbuka start to rekindle things.

Kyle Pitts has been ascending with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, earning at least eight targets in three of the four games Cousins has started. The Buccaneers rank as an average coverage unit with a top-10 PFF pass-rush grade. They also blitz at the fifth-highest rate over the last month, but in spite of this, generate the 12th-least amount of quick pressure. 

Pitts is second on the team with a 36.7% THREAT when the defense blitzes, and Tampa’s defense allows the fourth-highest pass rate. As long as Cousins is the starter, Pitts is in a great position, and this matchup is very solid for him. 

The Chiefs present a slight challenge to wide receivers. They allow the fourth-lowest rate of open targets and have the 12th best PFF coverage grade on wide receiver targets. However, they do yield the third-highest yards per receptions over the last month.

The Chiefs play the second-highest rate of press coverage, and Ladd McConkey has an elite 28.1% THREAT (ranking 13th) when in press-coverage situations. This is a surprisingly decent matchup for McConkey in particular.