It’s not hyperbole to say the Detroit Lions saved their season with a Thursday night win over the Dallas Cowboys. Had they lost that game, their only likely path to the postseason would be to finish the year going 4-0 against a moderately tough schedule. Instead, the Lions have a little wiggle room. Detroit can likely finish the year 3-1 and still make the playoffs—provided that loss doesn’t come against the Chicago Bears.
But just how likely is it for Detroit to accomplish that and make their third-straight postseason? Let’s take a look at some playoff prediction models, and see how much the Lions’ probabilities changed from last week.
Note: FTN Fantasy and ESPN data is not yet updated with the “Monday Night Football” results, but percentages aren’t likely to change much based on the Eagles’ loss. Numbers will be updated once those probability models are up to date.
Lions’ odds to make the playoffs:
New York Times: 40% (+11% from last week)
FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 60.9% (+10.9%)
ESPN: 55% (+11%)
NextGenStats: 51% (+8%)
Detroit’s odds have shot up anywhere from 8 to 14 percent after their win and the Chicago Bears’ loss in Week 14. Most outlets have them near a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs, but the FTN Fantasy model—which uses DVOA as the primary factor in simulating the rest of the season—has Detroit’s most optimistic odds. That’s not all that surprising considering the Lions rank third in the NFL in DVOA.
It’s also not that surprising that of the teams most likely to fall out of a current playoff spot to make room for the Lions, the Chicago Bears top the list. Here are Chicago’s odds to make the playoffs per these same models:
Bears playoff odds:
New York Times: 70%
FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 54.5%
ESPN: 62%
NextGenStats: 65%
Three of the four models still have the Bears with better odds to get into the playoffs, but there’s a pretty wide variance here.
Odds to win NFC North
New York Times: 6% (+1%)
FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 9.9% (+1%)
ESPN: 9% (+1%)
Not much has changed for Detroit’s long-shot odds to win the division. Detroit is still a game-and-a-half behind the Green Bay Packers. And while Green Bay has three difficult remaining games on the schedule (at Broncos, at Bears, vs. Ravens), Detroit would likely need to win out to catch them. It’s not impossible, but it’s certainly not probable. If Green Bay wins three of their last four, Detroit cannot catch them.
Super Bowl odds
- 1% (-3%) to win the Super Bowl
- 6.4% (+0.9%) to appear in the Super Bowl
- 4.3% (+1.0%) to win the Super Bowl
- 7% (+2%) to make the Super Bowl
Are Super Bowl odds very meaningful this time of year? Not really, but I still like looking at them.
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